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IBKR vs MS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) vs. Morgan Stanley (MS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- IBKR is a fully automated global electronic broker delivering rapid client growth, with customer accounts up roughly 32% year over year to about 4.4 million.
- MS is a diversified global investment bank and wealth manager that posted record 2025 revenue of $70.6 billion, driven by a sharp rebound in investment banking.
- IBKR trades at a premium valuation (around 34 times trailing earnings), while MS carries a materially lower multiple of roughly 16 times earnings.
- Both companies beat analyst expectations in their most recent earnings, but their growth drivers differ sharply: client acquisition and net interest income for IBKR versus deal-making and asset management for MS.
- Momentum favors IBKR on raw share-price gains, while MS offers stronger balance-sheet diversification and a more established dividend profile.
- Their distinct risk profiles make this a comparison of a high-growth fintech-style franchise against a scaled, cyclical banking powerhouse.
Introduction
Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) and Morgan Stanley (MS) both operate at the center of global capital markets, yet they represent very different investment theses. IBKR is an automated, technology-first brokerage known for low-cost access to over 160 global exchanges, while MS is a full-service investment bank and wealth-management giant. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing a fast-growing, higher-multiple growth franchise against a diversified, dividend-paying financial institution. Understanding their relative performance, market positioning, and risk profiles can help clarify which profile better suits a given portfolio or trading strategy in the current environment.
IBKR Overview and Recent Performance
Interactive Brokers Group has sustained strong operational momentum in recent weeks, reinforcing its reputation as one of the most efficient brokerage platforms in the industry. In its most recent quarterly report, net revenues rose about 18.5% year over year to $1.64 billion, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) exceeded consensus estimates. Full-year net revenues reached approximately $6.21 billion, up nearly 20% from the prior year, and net income available to common shareholders climbed to about $984 million.
The company's growth story is anchored in client acquisition and scale. Customer accounts increased roughly 32% to 4.4 million, customer equity grew about 37% to roughly $779.9 billion, and Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs, a measure of daily trading activity) rose about 30%. A standout metric is IBKR's pre-tax profit margin of approximately 79%, reflecting its highly automated cost structure. Recent product initiatives—including stablecoin funding options, the Karta Visa card, and expanded access to markets such as Brazil's B3 exchange and UAE equities—have broadened its global reach. The stock's rich valuation, however, means sentiment is sensitive to any slowdown in trading activity or net interest income (the income earned on customer cash and margin balances).
MS Overview and Recent Performance
Morgan Stanley delivered one of the stronger results among large U.S. financial institutions in its most recent reporting period, capping a record year. Fourth-quarter net revenues rose about 10% year over year to $17.9 billion, with EPS up roughly 21% to $2.68. For the full year, the firm reported record net revenues of $70.6 billion and net income of $16.9 billion, along with a Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE, a key profitability gauge for banks) of approximately 21.6%.
Growth was led by a revival in investment banking, where revenues surged about 47% in the quarter on higher advisory fees tied to mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and stronger underwriting activity. Wealth Management, the firm's largest segment, generated about $8.4 billion in quarterly revenue, up 13%, with total client assets across Wealth and Investment Management reaching roughly $9.3 trillion. The firm ended the year with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1, a measure of core bank capital) ratio of 15.0%, and it declared a $1.00 quarterly dividend. While its diversified model provides stability, MS remains exposed to cyclical swings in deal activity and market volatility.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ fundamentally in business model. IBKR is an asset-light, automated execution and clearing platform whose economics hinge on client growth, trading volumes, and net interest income from customer balances and margin loans. MS, by contrast, is a capital-intensive integrated bank balancing volatile investment-banking and trading revenues against steadier fee-based wealth and asset-management income.
On valuation, the contrast is stark. IBKR trades near 34 times trailing earnings, reflecting expectations for sustained double-digit growth, while MS trades near 16 times earnings, a discount that reflects its cyclical banking exposure. On momentum, IBKR has posted stronger recent share-price appreciation, supported by rapid account growth and a 79% pre-tax margin. MS's performance has been steadier and more diversified, buoyed by a deal-making revival but tempered by softer fixed-income trading.
Risk profiles also diverge. IBKR carries concentration risk around trading activity and interest rates, while MS faces credit, market, and regulatory risks inherent to a global bank. Sector exposure differs accordingly: IBKR is a pure-play brokerage, whereas MS spans institutional securities, wealth management, and investment management.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward IBKR in the near term, given its stronger and more consistent price trend, superior margin profile, and robust client-acquisition momentum. The firm's 79% pre-tax margin and double-digit account growth represent catalysts that are easier to sustain and measure than the more episodic, deal-driven earnings of a global bank. That said, the assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: MS offers greater diversification, a healthier dividend, and a lower valuation that could prove more attractive if market volatility rises or deal activity cools. The relative positioning ultimately depends on whether an investor prioritizes trend consistency and growth or valuation support and stability.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IBKR is a Buy and MS is a Buy.
IBKR sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
On October 28, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for IBKR moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 39 of the 47 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +3.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IBKR advanced for three days, in 252 of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
IBKR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on IBKR as a result. In 48 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for IBKR turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 58%.
IBKR moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IBKR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for IBKR entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. IBKR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.901) is normal, around the industry mean (3.108). P/E Ratio (30.395) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.904). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.406) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (7.800) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.498) is also within normal values, averaging (16.899).
Momentum Indicator for MS turns positive, indicating new upward trend
MS saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 73 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 52 of the 73 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MS's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MS just turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where MS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +3.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MS advanced for three days, in 230 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
MS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator for MS entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.716) is normal, around the industry mean (3.108). P/E Ratio (14.744) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.904). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.702) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (7.800) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.380) is also within normal values, averaging (16.899).
IBKR | MS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 5 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 61 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
IBKR's Valuation (91) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MS (92). This means that IBKR’s stock grew similarly to MS’s over the last 12 months.
IBKR's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MS (18). This means that IBKR’s stock grew similarly to MS’s over the last 12 months.
MS's SMR Rating (5) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IBKR (45). This means that MS’s stock grew somewhat faster than IBKR’s over the last 12 months.
MS's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as IBKR (60). This means that MS’s stock grew similarly to IBKR’s over the last 12 months.
IBKR's P/E Growth Rating (55) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MS (61). This means that IBKR’s stock grew similarly to MS’s over the last 12 months.
| IBKR | MS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 78% | 5 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 56% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IBKR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MS’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- IBKR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IBKR’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IBKR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
IBKR (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а -4.21% price change this week, while MS (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was +3.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -6.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -19.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was -21.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
IBKR is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
MS is expected to report earnings on Jan 14, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-6.08% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
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MS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MS has been closely correlated with GS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MS jumps, then GS could also see price increases.