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HZO vs KMX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? MarineMax (HZO) vs. CarMax (KMX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HZO (MarineMax) and KMX (CarMax) are both consumer-facing vehicle retailers navigating weak discretionary demand, but their momentum and catalysts diverge meaningfully.
- MarineMax is stabilizing via premium boat demand, higher-margin marina and superyacht services, and inventory reduction, while CarMax is in an active turnaround marked by leadership change and margin reset.
- CarMax's comparable used-vehicle sales declined roughly 9% in its most recent quarter, and its CEO departed in early December, adding execution uncertainty.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: HZO is the favored ticker in this comparison, based on more constructive trend consistency, analyst support, and a less disruptive catalyst profile.
- Explore deeper coverage of each name on their dedicated pages: HZO Major News and HZO Today's Price Move, plus KMX Major News and KMX Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are positioning across these and other tickers, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
MarineMax and CarMax occupy adjacent corners of the consumer discretionary market: one sells boats and yachts, the other used cars. Despite their different products, both are sensitive to interest rates, consumer confidence, and credit conditions, making them a useful lens on how big-ticket discretionary spending is faring. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing two retailers whose shares have been volatile amid softening demand. While MarineMax is working to defend margins through diversification, CarMax is engineering a broad reset of its pricing and operations. Their divergent recent trajectories make the relative performance and market positioning of these two names worth examining closely.
HZO Overview and Recent Performance
HZO, MarineMax, is the world's largest recreational boat and yacht retailer, with an integrated business spanning dealerships, marina operations (IGY), superyacht services, and boat manufacturing brands such as Cruisers Yachts and Intrepid Powerboats. In its fiscal fourth quarter, revenue reached $552.2 million, down modestly year over year but ahead of consensus, while same-store sales rose 2.3% despite a soft industry backdrop. Gross margin expanded to 34.7%, helped by growth in higher-margin finance, insurance, parts, services, superyacht, and marina segments.
Sentiment in recent weeks has been mixed but constructive on the margin. Management issued conservative fiscal 2026 guidance reflecting persistent promotional pressure and cautious retail behavior, which initially weighed on the stock. However, analysts have since shown support: Loop Capital initiated coverage with a Buy rating, and Citi raised its price target while maintaining a Buy, pointing to what it views as an overly conservative outlook. Investor focus remains on inventory normalization and whether premium-demand momentum can offset weakness in entry-level boat sales.
KMX Overview and Recent Performance
KMX, CarMax, is the largest retailer of used vehicles in the United States, operating roughly 250 stores alongside its CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) lending arm and an omnichannel buying and selling platform. The company's recent performance has been difficult. In its most recent quarter, revenue declined 6.9% year over year to $5.79 billion, and comparable used-vehicle unit sales fell about 9%. Retail gross profit per unit contracted, and operating margin turned negative as the company lowered prices to regain competitiveness.
The period has also brought significant leadership disruption. Long-time CEO Bill Nash departed in early December, and interim CEO David McCreight has signaled that "CarMax needs change," outlining a plan that includes price reductions, a simplified digital experience, and at least $150 million in selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expense cuts by the end of fiscal 2027. Competitive pressure from Carvana and potential new entrants has compounded the challenge. Shares fell roughly 53% during 2025, and several analysts have trimmed price targets or maintained cautious ratings while the turnaround takes shape.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a focused selection of the platform's AI trading bots. While Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, only those best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this curated section. The bots span diverse trading styles, strategies, timeframes, performance records, and statistics, each targeting its own set of tickers. This breadth lets traders filter for approaches aligned with their own horizon and risk tolerance, whether short-term swing trades or longer-term positioning. To explore the current lineup and see which automated strategies are resonating with today's market environment, visit the Trending AI Robots page.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ sharply in scale, structure, and trajectory. CarMax is a much larger business, with annual revenue in the tens of billions of dollars, while MarineMax generates roughly $2.3 billion. CarMax's model depends on high unit volume across a fixed-cost store network, which makes declining comparable sales especially damaging. MarineMax, by contrast, is pivoting toward higher-margin, service-oriented revenue that has helped cushion weak boat margins.
Growth drivers also contrast. CarMax is betting on lower prices, increased advertising, and cost discipline to reclaim market share, a strategy that pressures near-term earnings. MarineMax is leaning on premium product demand, early boat-show momentum, and inventory reduction to support a gradual margin recovery. On risk factors, CarMax faces intense competitive and leadership uncertainty, while MarineMax contends with industry-wide discounting and interest-rate sensitivity. In terms of market sentiment, analyst actions have tilted more favorably toward MarineMax in recent weeks, whereas CarMax has seen a mix of price-target cuts and cautious holds amid its restructuring.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor HZO over KMX in the current environment. MarineMax's relative positioning appears more constructive: same-store sales are growing, gross margin is expanding, and recent analyst actions have leaned positive. Its catalysts are more measured and diversified than CarMax's, which is contending with declining volumes, a margin reset, and a leadership transition simultaneously. While neither stock is free of cyclical risk, the AI's probabilistic assessment tilts toward the ticker exhibiting greater trend consistency and fewer self-imposed disruptions. This reflects a relative comparison rather than a definitive forecast of absolute returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HZO is a StrongBuy and KMX is a Buy.
Momentum Indicator for HZO turns positive, indicating new upward trend
HZO saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 23, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 96 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 75 of the 96 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
HZO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +0.08% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HZO advanced for three days, in 194 of 272 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HZO moved out of overbought territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 24 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 79%.
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HZO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
HZO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for HZO entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 28 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HZO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HZO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.222) is normal, around the industry mean (2.289). HZO's P/E Ratio (310.000) is considerably higher than the industry average of (17.578). HZO's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.159). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.102) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.536) is also within normal values, averaging (1.057).
KMX's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KMX turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where KMX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KMX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 57 cases where KMX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +5.26% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KMX advanced for three days, in 207 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 154 of 225 cases where KMX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 11, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KMX as a result. In 63 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KMX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
KMX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 9 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. KMX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.194) is normal, around the industry mean (1.554). P/E Ratio (31.975) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.811). KMX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.417) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.324) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KMX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
HZO | KMX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 97 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 90 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 86 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 3 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 28 | 9 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KMX's Valuation (82) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as HZO (97). This means that KMX’s stock grew similarly to HZO’s over the last 12 months.
HZO's Profit vs Risk Rating (90) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as KMX (100). This means that HZO’s stock grew similarly to KMX’s over the last 12 months.
KMX's SMR Rating (86) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as HZO (90). This means that KMX’s stock grew similarly to HZO’s over the last 12 months.
HZO's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as KMX (40). This means that HZO’s stock grew similarly to KMX’s over the last 12 months.
KMX's P/E Growth Rating (3) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as HZO (9). This means that KMX’s stock grew similarly to HZO’s over the last 12 months.
| HZO | KMX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 75% | 6 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 68% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HZO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while KMX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HZO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KMX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HZO’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KMX’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HZO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KMX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
HZO (@Specialty Stores) experienced а +0.23% price change this week, while KMX (@Automotive Aftermarket) price change was +1.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was -1.13%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +13.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.79%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was -3.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.25%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
HZO is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
KMX is expected to report earnings on Dec 17, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Specialty Stores (-1.13% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
@Automotive Aftermarket (-3.16% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
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HZO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HZO has been loosely correlated with AN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HZO jumps, then AN could also see price increases.
KMX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KMX has been loosely correlated with CPRT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KMX jumps, then CPRT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KMX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMX | 100% | -0.55% | ||
| CPRT - KMX | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.40% | ||
| FND - KMX | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| HZO - KMX | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.04% | ||
| HNST - KMX | 52% Loosely correlated | -1.92% | ||
| RH - KMX | 51% Loosely correlated | +0.80% | ||
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