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ICE vs SPGI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) vs. S&P Global (SPGI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Business models differ sharply: ICE operates exchanges and market infrastructure, while SPGI is a data, analytics, and ratings provider.
- Both posted record 2025 results, with double-digit adjusted earnings growth and rising operating margins.
- Relative performance has diverged recently: ICE has held up better on momentum, while SPGI has faced a notable pullback tied to restructuring and a planned spin-off.
- ICE is benefiting from geopolitical volatility, record energy and rate volumes, and a move into event-driven data via Polymarket.
- SPGI is leaning into artificial intelligence (AI), private markets, and portfolio simplification through divestitures and a Mobility separation.
- Analyst and sentiment signals have tilted somewhat more favorably toward ICE in recent market activity.
Introduction
Investors evaluating large-cap financial-data and market-infrastructure names often weigh ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) against SPGI (S&P Global). Both are entrenched, high-margin franchises that monetize essential financial information, yet they serve the market through different lenses. ICE is fundamentally an exchange and clearing operator, while S&P Global is a data, index, and credit-ratings leader. This stock comparison is relevant to traders and long-term investors assessing sector exposure, growth durability, and relative momentum. Understanding how each company is positioned today, and how market sentiment has shifted in recent weeks, can help clarify which profile better fits current conditions.
ICE Overview and Recent Performance
ICE is a global market-infrastructure company best known for operating the New York Stock Exchange and a broad suite of futures exchanges, alongside fixed-income, data, and mortgage-technology businesses. Its three core segments are Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. In recent quarters, ICE has reported record revenues and operating income, with full-year 2025 consolidated net revenues reaching roughly $9.9 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) up about 14% year over year. Adjusted free cash flow also hit a record, supporting a dividend increase and continued share repurchases.
Sentiment around ICE has been shaped by sustained demand for risk management amid geopolitical uncertainty, record activity in energy and interest-rate benchmarks, and growth in recurring data revenues. A notable recent development was ICE's agreement to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, a crypto-based event-forecasting platform, positioning ICE as a distributor of event-driven data. Analyst price targets and a relatively low put/call ratio have signaled a broadly constructive outlook in recent market activity.
SPGI Overview and Recent Performance
SPGI (S&P Global) is a leading provider of credit ratings, benchmarks and indices, market intelligence, commodity insights, and mobility data. For full-year 2025, the company reported revenue of approximately $15.3 billion, up 8%, with adjusted diluted EPS rising about 14% to $17.83 and adjusted operating margin expanding to roughly 50%. Growth was broad-based across all five divisions, led by Ratings and Indices, and the company returned about $6.2 billion to shareholders during the year.
Despite strong fundamentals, SPGI has experienced a pronounced pullback in recent weeks, with its share price well below its 52-week high. This weakness reflects a combination of restructuring news and market-wide shifts, including the planned spin-off of its Mobility business, the divestiture of its OSTTRA joint-venture stake, and the acquisition of private-markets data firm With Intelligence. Management has emphasized AI investment exceeding $1 billion and new private-markets initiatives, but near-term execution around the spin-off has added uncertainty to the stock's market positioning.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies share attractive characteristics but diverge on several important dimensions. ICE derives a meaningful portion of revenue from transaction and clearing activity, making it more sensitive to trading volumes and market volatility, which have been elevated and supportive recently. SPGI, by contrast, leans on subscription and ratings revenue, which tends to be more stable but is influenced by bond-issuance cycles and asset flows into indices.
On growth drivers, ICE is focused on scaling its fixed-income and mortgage-technology networks and expanding into new data categories such as event-driven markets. SPGI is prioritizing AI-enabled products and private-markets transparency while simplifying its portfolio. In terms of recent momentum, ICE has shown greater relative strength, whereas SPGI has faced sharper near-term selling pressure despite solid earnings. Key risk factors include execution on SPGI's Mobility spin-off and ICE's integration of acquisitions, while sector exposure differs meaningfully: energy and rates for ICE versus credit markets and indices for SPGI.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable signals, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ICE in the current environment. ICE has demonstrated more consistent trend strength and relative resilience, supported by record volumes, margin expansion, and constructive analyst and options-market sentiment. While SPGI maintains strong fundamentals and compelling long-term catalysts, its recent momentum has been challenged by spin-off execution uncertainty and a deeper share-price drawdown. A data-driven model weighing trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning would therefore probably favor ICE, though this assessment reflects probabilities rather than certainty and could shift as new data emerges.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ICE is a Buy and SPGI is a Buy.
ICE | SPGI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 56 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 80 | 83 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 43 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ICE's Valuation (83) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as SPGI (87) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to SPGI’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's Profit vs Risk Rating (60) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SPGI (100) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew somewhat faster than SPGI’s over the last 12 months.
SPGI's SMR Rating (56) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as ICE (59) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that SPGI’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as SPGI (59) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to SPGI’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's P/E Growth Rating (80) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as SPGI (83) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to SPGI’s over the last 12 months.
| ICE | SPGI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 42% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 41% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 54% | 17 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 55% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ICE’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while SPGI’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ICE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- SPGI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ICE’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SPGI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ICE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SPGI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ICE (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а -0.48% price change this week, while SPGI (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was -2.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was -2.69%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.23%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
ICE is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
SPGI is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (-2.69% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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ICE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ICE has been loosely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ICE jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ICE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | 100% | -0.47% | ||
| SPGI - ICE | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.88% | ||
| TW - ICE | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.16% | ||
| MCO - ICE | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.14% | ||
| TRU - ICE | 50% Loosely correlated | -2.87% | ||
| MSCI - ICE | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.55% | ||
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SPGI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPGI has been closely correlated with MCO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPGI jumps, then MCO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SPGI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPGI | 100% | -0.88% | ||
| MCO - SPGI | 88% Closely correlated | -1.14% | ||
| MSCI - SPGI | 71% Closely correlated | -0.55% | ||
| NDAQ - SPGI | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.83% | ||
| MORN - SPGI | 62% Loosely correlated | -2.72% | ||
| JEF - SPGI | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.29% | ||
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