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ICE vs MCO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) vs. Moody's Corporation (MCO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ICE operates diversified market infrastructure spanning exchanges, fixed income and data services, and mortgage technology, while MCO pairs its credit ratings franchise with a fast-growing analytics and data business.
- Both names delivered strong recent quarters, but their growth engines differ: ICE leans on transaction volumes and recurring data, whereas MCO is riding a surge in debt issuance and AI-driven analytics demand.
- Relative performance has diverged, with MCO showing more consistent recent momentum while ICE has traded in a choppier range over the trailing year.
- MCO carries a premium valuation (roughly 29x trailing earnings) versus ICE (near 22x), reflecting higher market expectations for its growth durability.
- Key catalysts to watch include ICE's tokenization and private credit initiatives and MCO's AI-related capital formation and analytics recurring-revenue expansion.
Introduction
Intercontinental Exchange and Moody's Corporation are two pillars of global financial infrastructure, yet they monetize very different parts of the capital markets. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders weighing a diversified exchange-and-data operator against a ratings-and-analytics franchise with an effective duopoly in credit ratings. Both companies generate strong recurring cash flows, return capital aggressively to shareholders, and are actively positioning their data businesses for the AI era. Because their drivers—transaction volumes and debt issuance, respectively—respond differently to interest rates and volatility, this relative performance analysis offers a useful lens on market positioning across the current environment.
ICE Overview and Recent Performance
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is a global market infrastructure company operating exchanges (including the New York Stock Exchange), clearing networks, fixed income and data services, and mortgage technology. In recent quarters it has posted record revenue and operating income, led by a surge in energy and interest-rate futures activity. Its Exchange segment benefited from elevated volatility, while Fixed Income and Data Services and Mortgage Technology delivered steady recurring-revenue growth.
Recent market activity, however, has been mixed. The stock has swung sharply over the trailing year, underperforming the broader S&P 500 over a 12-month window even as a 90-day rebound lifted the shares. Sentiment has been shaped by several forward-looking initiatives: the launch of a private credit reference data service anchored by Apollo, a tokenized securities platform at the NYSE, a partnership with Blockchain.com to bring U.S. equities on-chain, and a planned acquisition of MarketAxess to expand its fixed-income network. Analysts remain broadly constructive, with a consensus "Moderate Buy" and a majority of "Strong Buy" ratings, though near-term comparisons in data center revenue are expected to moderate.
MCO Overview and Recent Performance
Moody's Corporation (MCO) is an integrated risk assessment firm with two segments: Moody's Investors Service (MIS), a leading credit ratings business, and Moody's Analytics (MA), which sells data, research, and risk-management software. The company recently delivered what management called a "standout" quarter, with enterprise revenue up roughly 15% and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) up about 31% year over year, driven by broad-based strength across asset classes in ratings and durable growth in analytics.
The shares have slipped in recent weeks despite strong results, reflecting broader market weakness and valuation sensitivity. Debt issuance has been a powerful tailwind, with Moody's rating more than $2 trillion of debt in consecutive quarters, supported by refinancing, private credit, and AI-related capital formation such as data center financing. Moody's Analytics has built roughly $3.7 billion in annualized recurring revenue with a 95% retention rate, and the company has expanded AI integrations with major cloud platforms. Moody's has also raised its full-year rated issuance and share repurchase guidance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies contrast sharply in business model and growth drivers. ICE is transaction-heavy at its core, with exchange revenues tied to energy, financial, and agricultural derivatives activity, balanced by recurring data and mortgage technology streams. MCO, by contrast, pairs a cyclically sensitive ratings business with an increasingly subscription-driven analytics arm that now represents the majority of its recurring revenue.
On recent momentum, MCO has delivered faster top-line and earnings growth in its latest quarter, powered by an issuance rebound and AI-linked financing. ICE posted more moderate recent growth but benefits from exceptional operating margins in its Exchange segment and a record of consistent execution. Risk profiles differ as well: MCO is sensitive to a slowdown in global debt issuance and carries a higher debt load, while ICE faces integration risk from acquisitions and exposure to volatility-driven transaction volumes that can normalize. From a valuation standpoint, MCO trades at a premium to ICE, reflecting the market's confidence in its regulatory moat and recurring-revenue mix.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and catalyst quality, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward MCO in the current environment. The company's combination of accelerating earnings growth, a raised issuance outlook, expanding analytics recurring revenue, and a strong (if richly valued) business model gives it a more consistent trend profile. That said, ICE presents a compelling relative-value case and multiple emerging catalysts, so the AI's preference would likely be expressed in probabilistic terms rather than as a definitive call—favoring MCO on trend strength while acknowledging ICE's positioning advantages for longer-horizon positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ICE is a Hold and MCO is a Hold.
ICE's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for ICE entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 209 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 131 of the 209 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for ICE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ICE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ICE as a result. In 37 of 70 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ICE just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where ICE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
ICE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ICE advanced for three days, in 187 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ICE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.905) is normal, around the industry mean (-5.093). P/E Ratio (21.567) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.252). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.071) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.553) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
MCO in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026
The 10-day moving average for MCO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
MCO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MCO entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MCO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MCO as a result. In 60 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MCO just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where MCO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
MCO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MCO advanced for three days, in 221 of 355 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MCO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 97 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (26.316) is normal, around the industry mean (-5.093). P/E Ratio (29.193) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.252). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.609) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.132) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
ICE | MCO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 97 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 53 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 16 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 80 | 74 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ICE's Valuation (83) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MCO (97) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to MCO’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's Profit vs Risk Rating (53) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as ICE (55) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's SMR Rating (16) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ICE (59) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew somewhat faster than ICE’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as MCO (57) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to MCO’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's P/E Growth Rating (74) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as ICE (80) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that MCO’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
| ICE | MCO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ICE’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while MCO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ICE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MCO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ICE’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MCO’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ICE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MCO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ICE (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +1.97% price change this week, while MCO (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +5.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +2.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
ICE is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
MCO is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+2.41% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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ICE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ICE has been loosely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ICE jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ICE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | 100% | +2.13% | ||
| SPGI - ICE | 57% Loosely correlated | +3.97% | ||
| TW - ICE | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.19% | ||
| TRU - ICE | 51% Loosely correlated | +10.73% | ||
| MCO - ICE | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.52% | ||
| MSCI - ICE | 49% Loosely correlated | +2.60% | ||
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MCO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MCO has been closely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MCO jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MCO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCO | 100% | +4.52% | ||
| SPGI - MCO | 88% Closely correlated | +3.97% | ||
| MSCI - MCO | 69% Closely correlated | +2.60% | ||
| JEF - MCO | 66% Closely correlated | +2.25% | ||
| SF - MCO | 66% Loosely correlated | +1.31% | ||
| GS - MCO | 66% Loosely correlated | +1.43% | ||
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