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ICE vs TW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) vs. Tradeweb Markets (TW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is a diversified financial infrastructure giant with $9.9 billion in 2025 revenues, spanning exchanges, mortgage technology, and fixed income data — but has faced recent volume headwinds and a 22% one-year price decline as of mid-2026.
- Tradeweb Markets (TW) operates electronic marketplaces across rates, credit, equities, and money markets, delivering its 26th consecutive year of record revenues in 2025 with 18.9% annual growth and accelerating momentum into 2026.
- ICE offers a broader, more diversified business model with higher absolute profitability and an adjusted operating margin near 60%, while TW demonstrates faster revenue growth and stronger recent trading volume trends.
- Both companies are deeply tied to financial market activity, but TW's pure-play electronification theme and digital asset initiatives have provided a sharper growth narrative in recent quarters.
- ICE trades at a lower valuation multiple (roughly 20 times trailing earnings), while TW commands a premium reflecting its higher growth trajectory and expanding addressable market.
- Risk profiles differ meaningfully: ICE faces mortgage technology segment headwinds and energy-volume sensitivity, whereas TW navigates competitive pressures in U.S. credit markets and average fee compression.
Introduction
For investors evaluating financial infrastructure and electronic trading platform stocks, ICE and TW represent two distinct but overlapping plays on the modernization of global markets. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is a sprawling financial services and data conglomerate that owns the New York Stock Exchange, operates global derivatives exchanges, and runs a substantial mortgage technology business. Tradeweb Markets (TW) is a focused operator of electronic trading venues serving institutional investors across fixed income, derivatives, and money markets. This comparison examines how these two stocks stack up across business models, growth trajectories, risk factors, and market positioning — offering a useful framework for traders and investors assessing the financial infrastructure space.
ICE Overview and Recent Performance
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is one of the world's largest financial market infrastructure companies, operating through three core segments: Exchanges (including the NYSE and global futures markets), Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. In 2025, ICE delivered its 20th consecutive year of record revenues, generating $9.9 billion in net revenues — a 7% increase year-over-year — and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.95, up 14%. The company's adjusted operating margin reached an impressive 60%, supported by a business model management describes as "all-weather."
In recent weeks, however, ICE's stock has come under pressure. As of mid-July 2026, shares traded around $139, near the lower end of a 52-week range of approximately $122 to $189. Analysts at UBS and Raymond James have trimmed price targets, citing quieter trading volumes following geopolitical energy shocks and weaker-than-expected June 2026 metrics across financials and energy futures. The mortgage technology segment has also faced headwinds from customer renewals at lower minimums. On the positive side, ICE continues to innovate — recently taking over administration of LBMA platinum and palladium price benchmarks and planning to launch GPU compute futures contracts. The company also announced a strategic investment in Polymarket, a prediction market platform, signaling interest in decentralized market infrastructure.
TW Overview and Recent Performance
Tradeweb Markets (TW) is a leading global operator of electronic marketplaces for institutional trading across rates, credit, equities, and money markets. The company reported its 26th consecutive year of record annual revenues in 2025, with total revenues surging 18.9% to $2.1 billion. Full-year adjusted diluted EPS grew 18.8% to $3.47, and the adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin expanded by 64 basis points to 54%. Free cash flow exceeded $1 billion for the year, and the company authorized a $500 million share repurchase program alongside a 16.7% dividend increase.
Tradeweb's momentum has carried into 2026, with January average daily volume (ADV) reaching $3.1 trillion — reflecting double-digit year-over-year ADV growth across rates, credit, and money markets. The company has been actively expanding its footprint in digital assets, completing the first on-chain electronic auction for brokered certificates of deposit and collaborating with Chainlink to publish on-chain Treasury pricing. International revenues have been a standout, with Asian client revenues growing over 35% and European client revenues up more than 25% in 2025. Recent market activity has shown Tradeweb continuing to gain traction, though some pressure on average fees per million and a competitive U.S. credit environment remain areas to monitor.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
When comparing ICE and TW, scale is the most immediate differentiator. ICE's $9.9 billion revenue base dwarfs Tradeweb's $2.1 billion, and its market capitalization of roughly $79 billion is nearly four times larger than TW's approximately $21.5 billion. ICE's "all-weather" diversification across exchanges, data, and mortgage technology provides earnings durability, but also exposes it to sector-specific headwinds — notably in mortgage technology, where customer renewal minimums have weighed on recurring revenues.
Tradeweb, by contrast, is a higher-growth, pure-play bet on the electronification of institutional trading. Its 18.9% revenue growth in 2025 significantly outpaced ICE's 7%, and its ADV momentum has continued to accelerate. TW's international revenue exposure — roughly 42% of fourth-quarter 2025 revenues — provides geographic diversification and a growth tailwind as electronification advances in Asia and Europe. However, TW faces its own challenges, including average fee compression and competitive dynamics in U.S. credit markets.
On valuation, ICE trades at a lower multiple — roughly 20 times trailing earnings and approximately 15 times forward estimates — reflecting the market's concerns about near-term volume headwinds and mortgage segment challenges. TW commands a premium, consistent with its higher growth rate and expanding total addressable market in electronic fixed income trading. From a capital return perspective, both companies are shareholder-friendly: ICE returned $2.4 billion to stockholders in 2025 through buybacks and dividends, while TW raised its dividend 16.7% and authorized a fresh $500 million repurchase program.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trends and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt in favor of TW in the current market environment — though with important qualifications. Tradeweb's consistent volume momentum, 26-year track record of annual revenue records, and accelerating ADV trends into 2026 present a cleaner growth narrative with fewer near-term headwinds. The company's expanding digital asset initiatives and international revenue growth provide additional catalysts that align with prevailing market themes around tokenization and market structure evolution. ICE, however, offers a compelling value proposition — its adjusted operating margins near 60%, diversified revenue streams, and depressed valuation suggest the stock may be oversold relative to its long-term earnings power, particularly if energy and mortgage market conditions stabilize. The AI's probabilistic assessment would likely favor TW for trend consistency and near-term momentum, while acknowledging that ICE's valuation and "all-weather" model could appeal to investors with a longer time horizon and higher tolerance for cyclical headwinds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ICE is a StrongBuy and TW is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ICE’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileTW’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ICE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ICE’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TW’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ICE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ICE (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +4.59% price change this week, while TW (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was +0.67% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +0.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.20%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was +0.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.73%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.94%.
Reported Earning Dates
ICE is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
TW is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+0.21% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
@Investment Banks/Brokers (+0.01% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
| ICE | TW | ICE / TW | |
| Capitalization | 85.6B | 21.4B | 400% |
| EBITDA | 7.68B | 1.55B | 496% |
| Gain YTD | -5.198 | -6.309 | 82% |
| P/E Ratio | 21.51 | 23.99 | 90% |
| Revenue | 13.4B | 2.21B | 607% |
| Total Cash | 2.62B | 2.06B | 127% |
| Total Debt | 20.5B | 150M | 13,667% |
ICE | TW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 49 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 80 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 61 | 60 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 70 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 89 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 55 | 55 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ICE's Valuation (75) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (92) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's Profit vs Risk Rating (62) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (80) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
TW's SMR Rating (60) in the Internet Software Or Services industry is in the same range as ICE (61) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that TW’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (70) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's P/E Growth Rating (89) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (96) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
| ICE | TW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 37% | 4 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 4 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 52% | 6 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 26 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 44% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 55% |
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ICE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ICE has been loosely correlated with NDAQ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ICE jumps, then NDAQ could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ICE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | 100% | -2.43% | ||
| NDAQ - ICE | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.02% | ||
| MCO - ICE | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.80% | ||
| SPGI - ICE | 54% Loosely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| TW - ICE | 52% Loosely correlated | +2.76% | ||
| TRU - ICE | 49% Loosely correlated | -2.04% | ||
More | ||||
TW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TW has been loosely correlated with MKTX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TW jumps, then MKTX could also see price increases.