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ICE vs TW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) vs. Tradeweb Markets (TW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different business models: ICE runs global exchanges, clearing houses, and data services, while TW operates electronic marketplaces for fixed income, credit, and money markets.
- Scale gap: ICE's quarterly revenue runs in the multi-billion-dollar range, whereas Tradeweb's revenue is measured in the hundreds of millions — but Tradeweb posts stronger revenue growth percentages.
- Recent momentum: ICE delivered record first-quarter results and announced a $6 billion acquisition, while Tradeweb has reported record volumes but weaker share-price momentum year-to-date.
- Profitability: Tradeweb consistently maintains elevated adjusted EBITDA margins around 55%, while ICE generates higher absolute cash flow across a more diversified asset base.
- Risk profile: ICE's expansion into mortgage technology and acquisitions adds leverage and integration risk, while Tradeweb faces fee compression and competitive pressure in electronic trading.
Introduction
Investors evaluating financial market infrastructure often compare diversified exchange operators against specialized electronic trading platforms. This stock comparison weighs ICE, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange and a leader in derivatives, clearing, and data, against TW, a fast-growing electronic marketplace operator focused on rates, credit, and money markets. Both companies profit from the long-running shift toward digitized, automated trading, yet they differ sharply in scale, diversification, and market positioning. Understanding their relative performance helps traders assess which franchise currently offers the more consistent trend, stronger catalysts, and more resilient risk-adjusted profile in the present environment.
ICE Overview and Recent Performance
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is a global market infrastructure company spanning exchanges, clearing houses, fixed income and data services, and mortgage technology. In recent weeks the company reported record first-quarter results, with total revenues less transaction-based expenses rising 20.4% year over year to $2.98 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbing 37% to $2.35, both ahead of consensus. Energy futures and options were standout performers, and management cited strong demand for risk management tools amid elevated volatility.
The company also announced a roughly $6 billion all-cash agreement to acquire MarketAxess, a leading electronic platform for corporate bond trading, extending ICE's push into fixed income. The deal followed second-quarter results showing adjusted EPS of $1.90 on net revenues of $2.67 billion. Despite solid fundamentals, ICE shares have lagged the broader market on a year-to-date basis, as investors weigh acquisition integration risk and higher leverage against the company's recurring data revenue and diversified cash flows.
TW Overview and Recent Performance
Tradeweb Markets (TW) builds and operates electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities, and money markets, serving institutional, wholesale, and retail clients. Recent market activity has favored the franchise's core thesis: the structural migration of fixed income trading from voice channels to electronic platforms. In its most recent first quarter, Tradeweb reported revenue of $617.8 million, up 21.2% year over year, while average daily volume (ADV) rose 31.4% to $3.3 trillion, driven by record activity in government bonds, swaps, and credit products.
Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) reached roughly $339.7 million with a margin of 55.0%, and net income grew 38.5%. However, share-price momentum has cooled in recent months: the stock has traded roughly flat year-to-date and has underperformed the S&P 500. Investors continue to weigh Tradeweb's robust growth and high margins against fee compression in certain products, rising technology spending, and intensifying competition in electronic trading.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is breadth versus focus. ICE operates a diversified, vertically integrated franchise — exchanges, clearing, data, and mortgage technology — which generates far larger absolute revenues and cash flows and offers multiple growth levers, but also carries integration and leverage risk from acquisitions such as MarketAxess. TW is a more concentrated, capital-light business with higher revenue growth percentages and exceptional margins, but it is more exposed to a single structural theme: the electronification of fixed income trading.
On momentum, Tradeweb has delivered stronger volume and revenue growth relative to its size, yet its stock has underperformed the market year-to-date, while ICE's stronger absolute results have been tempered by a decline in share value over the same period. On risk, ICE faces mortgage-segment cyclicality and acquisition execution, whereas Tradeweb contends with fee compression and competitive encroachment. Sector exposure also differs: ICE leans heavily on energy derivatives and data, while Tradeweb is concentrated in rates and credit.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely view TW as holding a slight current edge on trend consistency, given its sustained volume and revenue growth and high, stable margins. However, ICE may present a more compelling relative-positioning case for a longer-horizon framework, thanks to its diversified cash flows, recurring data revenue, and a defined catalyst in the MarketAxess acquisition. Because neither stock currently shows clear upward price momentum, the AI's preference would likely be probabilistic and conditional on strategy, favoring Tradeweb for growth and stability in the near term and ICE for diversified catalysts over time.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ICE is a Buy and TW is a Hold.
ICE | TW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 20 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 78 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 70 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 80 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 12 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ICE's Valuation (84) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (94) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's Profit vs Risk Rating (61) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (78) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's SMR Rating (59) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (59) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (70) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's P/E Growth Rating (80) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (87) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
| ICE | TW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 4 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ICE’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while TW’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ICE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ICE’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TW’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ICE’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ICE (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а -3.48% price change this week, while TW (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was +2.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was -3.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.48%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.22%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -4.89%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.47%.
Reported Earning Dates
ICE is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
TW is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (-3.14% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-4.89% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
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ICE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ICE has been loosely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ICE jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ICE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | 100% | -0.37% | ||
| SPGI - ICE | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.60% | ||
| TW - ICE | 52% Loosely correlated | +2.44% | ||
| MCO - ICE | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.49% | ||
| TRU - ICE | 50% Loosely correlated | +1.73% | ||
| MSCI - ICE | 48% Loosely correlated | +1.25% | ||
More | ||||
TW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TW has been loosely correlated with MKTX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TW jumps, then MKTX could also see price increases.