Advertisement
ICE vs TW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) vs. Tradeweb Markets (TW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) is a diversified market-infrastructure giant spanning exchanges, mortgage technology, and fixed-income data, with a market capitalization roughly three to four times larger than TW.
- TW (Tradeweb Markets) is a high-margin electronic trading operator focused on rates, credit, equities, and money markets, with gross margins above 90%.
- Both stocks benefit from elevated market volatility and trading volume, but ICE's relative performance has been steadier in recent months while TW has shown greater longer-horizon volatility.
- ICE leans on energy, derivatives, and recurring data revenue, whereas TW's growth is tied to the ongoing electronification of fixed-income markets.
- Recent analyst actions have been mixed for both names, with ICE receiving a downgrade to Hold and TW retaining mostly Buy-to-Overweight ratings.
- For deeper coverage of each company's catalysts, explore ICE Major News and ICE Today's Price Move, as well as TW Major News and TW Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are currently positioning across these and thousands of other tickers, browse the Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Tradeweb Markets (TW) both operate at the intersection of financial markets and technology, yet they serve that ecosystem in different ways. ICE owns exchanges, clearing infrastructure, mortgage software, and fixed-income data businesses, while Tradeweb runs electronic marketplaces that connect institutional buyers and sellers across fixed income, credit, equities, and money markets. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors weighing a diversified, dividend-paying market-infrastructure leader against a faster-growing, higher-margin electronic-trading pure play. Understanding their contrasting business models, growth drivers, and recent momentum helps clarify their relative market positioning in the current environment.
ICE Overview and Recent Performance
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, is a global market-infrastructure and data company. Its Exchanges segment remains the largest driver, spanning energy, financials, agriculture, and metals futures, alongside listings and equity options. It also operates Fixed Income and Data Services, plus a Mortgage Technology business that has shown renewed strength as loan origination activity recovers.
In recent quarters, ICE delivered record results, with revenue growth in the low double-digits and a surge in transaction revenue fueled by elevated energy and interest-rate volatility. Average daily volume (ADV, a measure of how much trades each day) rose sharply year over year, and management has emphasized structural drivers such as digitization and demand for risk management. Recent market activity has been choppier, however: ICE's share price has eased in recent weeks even as its longer-term return remains positive, and one major firm downgraded the stock to Hold, citing a more range-bound outlook. Recurring data revenue, dividend growth, and new products around tokenized securities and private credit remain key sentiment influences.
TW Overview and Recent Performance
Tradeweb Markets (TW) builds and operates electronic marketplaces for institutional trading across rates, credit, equities, and money markets. Its business generates gross margins above 90% and is widely seen as a beneficiary of the long-term shift toward automated, electronic execution of fixed-income products that were historically traded by voice.
Recent quarters have featured record trading volumes, with ADV up substantially year over year across rates and credit derivatives, and revenue growth in the high single to low double digits. Profitability has expanded, with net income and diluted earnings per share (EPS, or profit allocated to each share) climbing strongly. The company also announced an agreement to acquire Trumid, a fixed-income trading platform, in a deal aimed at expanding its credit-market footprint and hedge-fund reach. On the sentiment front, TW's share price has recovered somewhat in recent weeks but remains well below its 52-week high, and it has underperformed the broader market over the past year. Analysts have largely retained constructive ratings, though some price targets have been trimmed.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI Trading Bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and watchlist of securities. Because market conditions change constantly, only a curated subset of these bots earns a place in the Trending AI Robots section, which highlights the systems best suited to the current environment. The available bots span a wide range of approaches, from shorter-horizon swing and momentum strategies to longer-term trend-following models, with varying historical statistics and win-rate profiles. If you are interested in how automated, data-driven systems are currently positioning across names like ICE and TW, reviewing the Trending AI Robots page can offer a useful, real-time complement to your own research.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between ICE and TW is scope versus focus. ICE is a diversified conglomerate-like operator whose revenue spans trading, clearing, listings, mortgage technology, and data; this breadth tends to smooth out volatility in any single market. Tradeweb is a more concentrated, higher-margin operator whose fortunes are more directly tied to electronic fixed-income trading volumes and market-share gains.
Growth dynamics also differ. ICE's recent acceleration has been driven by energy and interest-rate volatility, which can be cyclical, while its mortgage and data segments offer recurring, less transaction-sensitive revenue. Tradeweb's growth is more secular, rooted in the ongoing electronification of bond markets and international expansion, but it carries execution risk around acquisitions and competition. On valuation and momentum, TW generally trades at a premium earnings multiple reflecting its higher growth and margins, yet it has shown greater price volatility and a weaker one-year return. ICE offers a steadier profile, a modest but growing dividend, and broader diversification, but its near-term momentum has cooled amid analyst caution. In short, ICE skews toward stability and scale, while TW skews toward higher-margin growth with more pronounced valuation swings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely express a measured preference for ICE in the current environment. Its broader diversification, recurring data revenue, record profitability, and steadier longer-term trend offer a more balanced risk-reward profile than Tradeweb's more concentrated, higher-volatility exposure. That said, TW retains compelling structural growth tailwinds and superior margins that could command favor under sustained fixed-income volatility. In probabilistic terms, ICE appears better positioned on stability and trend reliability, while TW offers potentially higher upside that depends on continued electronification and successful integration of new initiatives.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ICE is a Buy and TW is a Buy.
ICE in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
ICE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 17 of 30 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ICE as a result. In 34 of 71 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ICE just turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where ICE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 21 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
The 10-day moving average for ICE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +2.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ICE advanced for three days, in 184 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 158 of 333 cases where ICE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 47%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ICE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
ICE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ICE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.273) is normal, around the industry mean (4.143). P/E Ratio (24.229) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.659). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.071) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.553) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
TW in +1.49% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on November 10, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where TW advanced for three days, in 199 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for TW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 130 of 244 cases where TW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 53%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
TW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.062) is normal, around the industry mean (3.120). P/E Ratio (30.340) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.734). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.632) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.004) settles around the average of (8.976) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.930) is also within normal values, averaging (16.899).
ICE | TW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 47 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 87 Overvalued | 95 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 48 | 50 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 71 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ICE's Valuation (87) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (95) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's Profit vs Risk Rating (48) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (50) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's SMR Rating (59) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (59) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's Price Growth Rating (22) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (39) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
ICE's P/E Growth Rating (60) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as TW (71) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to TW’s over the last 12 months.
| ICE | TW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 38% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 52% | about 1 month ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 53% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ICE’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TW’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ICE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TW’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ICE’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TW’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ICE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TW’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ICE (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +3.18% price change this week, while TW (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was +3.11% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was -0.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.92%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.85%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -3.40%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was -23.03%.
Reported Earning Dates
ICE is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
TW is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (-0.02% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-3.40% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
Advertisement
ICE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ICE has been loosely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ICE jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ICE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | 100% | +1.34% | ||
| SPGI - ICE | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.49% | ||
| TRU - ICE | 54% Loosely correlated | -1.32% | ||
| MSCI - ICE | 53% Loosely correlated | +1.61% | ||
| TW - ICE | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.08% | ||
| MCO - ICE | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.07% | ||
More | ||||
TW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TW has been loosely correlated with MKTX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TW jumps, then MKTX could also see price increases.