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MCO vs SPGI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Moody's Corporation (MCO) vs. S&P Global (SPGI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MCO and SPGI are credit ratings and data leaders benefiting from strong global debt issuance, but they differ in business mix and market positioning.
- SPGI is the larger, more diversified franchise, with scale across Ratings, Indices, Energy, and Market Intelligence, while MCO is more concentrated in ratings and subscription analytics.
- Both companies reported accelerating quarterly revenue and margin expansion in recent months, supported by record investment-grade and AI-related issuance.
- MCO has shown stronger short-term price resilience, while SPGI has traded lower over the past year amid AI-related competitive concerns and a Mobility spin-off.
- Valuation favors SPGI on a trailing P/E basis, while MCO carries a higher multiple reflecting its analytics momentum and margins.
Introduction
Moody's Corporation (MCO) and S&P Global (SPGI) are the two dominant names in global credit ratings and financial data, making them a natural stock comparison for investors seeking exposure to capital-markets activity and recurring information services. Both generate durable revenue from ratings, research, and analytics, yet their growth drivers, diversification, and valuation profiles diverge. This comparison is relevant for long-term investors, sector-focused traders, and anyone evaluating how AI adoption, debt issuance cycles, and index and data franchises shape relative performance and market positioning in the current environment.
MCO Overview and Recent Performance
Moody's Corporation operates through two segments: Moody's Investors Service (MIS), which provides credit ratings and research, and Moody's Analytics (MA), which sells subscription-based data, risk, and decision solutions. In recent quarters, MCO has delivered accelerating growth. Its most recent quarterly results showed revenue up roughly 15% year over year, with adjusted operating margin expanding well into the mid-50s. Rated issuance surpassed $2 trillion for a second consecutive quarter, supported by strong investment-grade activity and AI-related financing from large technology issuers.
Moody's Analytics has reinforced the story with annualized recurring revenue (ARR), a measure of contracted recurring income, growing toward $3.7 billion with retention near 95%. Recent market activity has seen MCO trade within a broad range, with a 52-week span from roughly $402 to $547, and the stock has held up better than its peer over the trailing year. Sentiment has been supported by record issuance, a Microsoft partnership expanding AI integration, and management raising adjusted earnings guidance. Primary risks include issuance cyclicality and a comparatively premium valuation.
SPGI Overview and Recent Performance
S&P Global operates across four segments: S&P Global Ratings, S&P Global Market Intelligence, S&P Dow Jones Indices, and S&P Global Energy (including the Platts commodity price assessment business). In recent months, SPGI reported adjusted earnings up 23% year over year on 11% revenue growth, led by record Ratings results and a 20% gain in Indices, which posted its 13th consecutive record quarter. Adjusted operating margin expanded to roughly 54%.
Diversification is SPGI's defining feature, with recurring revenue across benchmarks, data, and indices reducing reliance on any single market cycle. The company also completed a spin-off of its Mobility business to sharpen focus on higher-margin benchmark and data assets. However, the stock has lagged over the past year, trading in a 52-week range of roughly $382 to $552, partly reflecting AI-related competitive concerns in Market Intelligence and longer client renewal cycles. Management has countered with productivity savings and a sharply higher share repurchase program, exceeding $7 billion for the year.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast lies in diversification. SPGI spreads its earnings across ratings, indices, energy benchmarks, and market data, which can smooth cyclical swings but also exposes it to competitive pressure from emerging AI-native data tools. MCO is more concentrated, with a larger relative weighting toward its analytics and decision-solutions subscription base, which offers high-margin recurring income but ties it more closely to financial-institution technology budgets.
Growth drivers also differ. Both benefit from robust debt issuance, but SPGI adds asset-linked index fees and energy price assessments, while MCO leans on KYC (Know Your Customer) compliance, insurance, and banking analytics. On valuation, SPGI trades at a lower trailing P/E ratio (price-to-earnings) than MCO, reflecting the market's more cautious view of its near-term AI disruption risk. In contrast, MCO's higher multiple signals investor confidence in its analytics growth and margin durability, despite its own exposure to debt issuance cyclicality.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, margin momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward MCO in the current environment. Its stronger recent price resilience, expanding margins, and highly recurring analytics revenue suggest more stable trend characteristics, while its clearer AI-integration catalysts add a favorable backdrop. That said, SPGI offers a broader, more diversified earnings base and a lower valuation multiple, which could appeal under different market conditions. The probabilistic view is that MCO currently holds a modest edge on momentum and stability, while SPGI presents a more value-oriented profile.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Moody's Corporation (MCO) and S&P Global Inc (SPGI) provide research and analytics for financial institutions and investors. S&P has four segments: one specializing in ratings for companies based on fundamental analysis; one obtaining stock market intelligence to identify opportunities, risks, and trends; one dedicated to physical commodities markets, and one maintaining their indices which attempt to accurately depict sectors, industries, and markets as concisely as possible. Moody’s operations are similar, providing creditworthiness ratings through it’s MIS segment, and analysis services and platforms designed to increase access to relevant information and to streamline decision-making. The companies are very similar in their size, revenue, diluted EPS, price-to-sales, and dividend rate. Slightly more investors are shorting SPGI at the time of this writing, but it may be a short-term trend.
Momentum Indicator for MCO turns positive, indicating new upward trend
MCO saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 89 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 60 of the 89 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MCO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MCO just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where MCO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
MCO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +4.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MCO advanced for three days, in 217 of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
MCO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MCO entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MCO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MCO's P/B Ratio (27.540) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.954). P/E Ratio (30.427) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.124). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.609) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.132) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
SPGI in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SPGI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPGI as a result. In 45 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPGI just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where SPGI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
SPGI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPGI advanced for three days, in 191 of 350 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPGI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
SPGI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SPGI entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SPGI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SPGI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.147) is normal, around the industry mean (3.954). P/E Ratio (26.956) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.124). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.893) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.570) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
MCO | SPGI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 98 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 85 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 56 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 72 | 74 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SPGI's Valuation (92) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as MCO (98). This means that SPGI’s stock grew similarly to MCO’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's Profit vs Risk Rating (57) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as SPGI (85). This means that MCO’s stock grew similarly to SPGI’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's SMR Rating (16) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SPGI (56). This means that MCO’s stock grew somewhat faster than SPGI’s over the last 12 months.
SPGI's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as MCO (49). This means that SPGI’s stock grew similarly to MCO’s over the last 12 months.
MCO's P/E Growth Rating (72) in the Financial Publishing Or Services industry is in the same range as SPGI (74). This means that MCO’s stock grew similarly to SPGI’s over the last 12 months.
| MCO | SPGI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 9 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 58% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MCO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while SPGI’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- MCO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SPGI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MCO’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SPGI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MCO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SPGI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MCO (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +3.95% price change this week, while SPGI (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +8.47% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +3.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.26%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
MCO is expected to report earnings on Feb 05, 2027.
SPGI is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+3.03% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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