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JOUT vs MAT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Johnson Outdoors (JOUT) vs. Mattel (MAT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- JOUT shares have surged over 120% in the past year, driven by robust Q2 earnings with 16% sales growth and improved margins, contrasting MAT's 11% decline amid softer demand.
- Recent market activity shows JOUT trading near 52-week highs around $52-53, while MAT hovers near lows at $15 amid margin pressures.
- Both consumer cyclical stocks beat recent quarterly estimates, but JOUT demonstrates stronger momentum in outdoor recreation versus MAT's toy sector challenges.
- JOUT offers a dividend yield around 2.6%, providing income appeal over MAT's growth uncertainties.
- Year-to-date, JOUT is up 25-28%, outperforming the S&P 500, while MAT lags with a 22% drop.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines JOUT (Johnson Outdoors Inc.) and MAT (Mattel, Inc.), both operating in the consumer cyclical sector focused on leisure products. JOUT specializes in outdoor recreation gear like fishing and camping equipment, while MAT leads in toys and family entertainment with iconic brands such as Barbie and Hot Wheels. Traders seeking momentum plays may favor JOUT's recent uptrend, while value-oriented investors might eye MAT's lower valuation amid strategic reviews. This analysis highlights relative performance, sector dynamics, and market positioning to inform stock comparison decisions in the current environment.
JOUT Overview and Recent Performance
Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) designs, manufactures, and markets outdoor recreation products worldwide, operating through segments including Fishing (e.g., Minn Kota motors, Humminbird sonar), Camping & Watercraft Recreation (e.g., Eureka tents, Jetboil stoves), and Diving (e.g., SCUBAPRO gear). Headquartered in Racine, Wisconsin, the company benefits from seasonal demand in marine and land-based activities.
In recent market activity, JOUT shares have shown strong upward momentum, trading near 52-week highs of $53.54 with year-to-date gains exceeding 25% and over 120% in the past year. Fiscal Q2 results ending April 3, 2026, drove sentiment, reporting net sales of $194.5 million (up 16% year-over-year), gross margin expansion to 38.8%, and net income of $9.4 million or $0.89 per diluted share, beating consensus estimates. Growth stemmed from Fishing segment demand, improved trade conditions, new products, pricing actions, and cost savings offsetting inflation. Year-to-date sales rose 21.5%, swinging to profitability. Analyst consensus leans "Reduce," but price targets around $55 suggest modest upside, with shares up post-earnings despite some pullback.
MAT Overview and Recent Performance
Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is a global leader in toys and family entertainment, offering dolls (Barbie, Monster High), vehicles (Hot Wheels, Matchbox), and preschool products (Fisher-Price) across North America, International, and American Girl segments. Headquartered in El Segundo, California, it sells through retailers, wholesalers, and e-commerce.
Recent weeks have seen MAT shares under pressure, down 22% year-to-date and 11% over the past year, trading around $15 near 52-week lows of $14.10. Q1 2026 results showed net sales of $862 million (up 4% reported, 1% constant currency), beating estimates, with adjusted EPS of -$0.20 topping forecasts. Gross margin dipped to 44.9% due to costs, but the company raised full-year EPS guidance to $1.27-$1.39. Activist pressure from Southeastern Asset Management for strategic alternatives, including a potential sale, adds uncertainty, alongside leadership changes like the Chief Commercial Officer departure. Analyst consensus is "Hold" with targets averaging $18.22, implying 18% upside, though price cuts reflect demand risks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
JOUT and MAT both serve leisure markets but diverge in business models: JOUT's niche outdoor gear targets enthusiasts with seasonal, innovation-driven sales, while MAT's mass-market toys rely on brand franchises and licensing amid cyclical consumer spending.
Growth drivers contrast sharply—JOUT benefits from fishing demand and e-commerce expansion, posting 16-21% recent sales growth, versus MAT's modest 4% uptick offset by margin erosion. Recent momentum favors JOUT with 100%+ yearly gains and YTD outperformance, while MAT faces 20%+ declines and activist scrutiny.
Risk factors include JOUT's weather sensitivity and cost inflation versus MAT's demand volatility and execution risks. Both in consumer cyclicals, JOUT shows superior sentiment via earnings beats and dividends, trading at a premium to MAT's discounted P/E around 10x.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors JOUT based on superior trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative strength in recent market activity. Observable catalysts like sales growth, margin expansion, and positioning near highs suggest higher probability of continued outperformance versus MAT's stability challenges and downside risks, though both warrant monitoring for sector shifts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is JOUT is a StrongBuy and MAT is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
JOUT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMAT’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- JOUT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MAT’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
JOUT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MAT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- JOUT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MAT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
JOUT (@Recreational Products) experienced а -2.13% price change this week, while MAT (@Recreational Products) price change was -3.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Recreational Products industry was -1.96%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.51%.
Reported Earning Dates
JOUT is expected to report earnings on Jul 31, 2026.
MAT is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Recreational Products (-1.96% weekly)The Leisure and Recreation Products industry includes companies offering recreational goods/services such as video games, swimming pools, golf courses, boats, outdoor spaces etc. Since these are mainly geared towards consumers, strong employment conditions and healthy incomes generally augur well for the recreational products industry. Some of the largest market caps in this space belong to video game developers (e.g. Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts and Take-two Interactive), and toy /board game makers (like Hasbro).
| JOUT | MAT | JOUT / MAT | |
| Capitalization | 476M | 4.04B | 12% |
| EBITDA | 35.3M | 890M | 4% |
| Gain YTD | 8.606 | -29.990 | -29% |
| P/E Ratio | 86.26 | 8.90 | 969% |
| Revenue | 652M | 5.38B | 12% |
| Total Cash | 108M | 866M | 12% |
| Total Debt | 46M | 2.68B | 2% |
JOUT | MAT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 55 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 13 Undervalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 93 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 74 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 78 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
JOUT's Valuation (13) in the Recreational Products industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MAT (78). This means that JOUT’s stock grew somewhat faster than MAT’s over the last 12 months.
JOUT's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Recreational Products industry is in the same range as MAT (100). This means that JOUT’s stock grew similarly to MAT’s over the last 12 months.
MAT's SMR Rating (41) in the Recreational Products industry is somewhat better than the same rating for JOUT (93). This means that MAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than JOUT’s over the last 12 months.
JOUT's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Recreational Products industry is in the same range as MAT (74). This means that JOUT’s stock grew similarly to MAT’s over the last 12 months.
JOUT's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Recreational Products industry is significantly better than the same rating for MAT (78). This means that JOUT’s stock grew significantly faster than MAT’s over the last 12 months.
| JOUT | MAT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 57% | 14 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 72% | 8 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 54% |
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JOUT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JOUT has been loosely correlated with MAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 45% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if JOUT jumps, then MAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JOUT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOUT | 100% | -2.24% | ||
| MAT - JOUT | 45% Loosely correlated | -1.07% | ||
| YETI - JOUT | 43% Loosely correlated | -2.10% | ||
| GOLF - JOUT | 42% Loosely correlated | -0.59% | ||
| FUN - JOUT | 40% Loosely correlated | -8.94% | ||
| JAKK - JOUT | 38% Loosely correlated | -0.77% | ||
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