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JAKK vs MAT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) vs. Mattel (MAT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- JAKK has outperformed in recent months, with shares up sharply year-to-date, while MAT has declined roughly 35% over the same period.
- Both companies face similar tariff and input-cost pressures, but their recent trajectories have diverged sharply on execution and sentiment.
- JAKKS Pacific returned to year-over-year sales growth and narrowed losses in its most recent quarter, aided by a rebound in Action Play & Collectibles.
- Mattel is growing net sales in the double digits but has swung to a net loss as margins compress and leadership transitions add uncertainty.
- JAKK is a smaller-cap, debt-light company with an elevated dividend yield, while MAT offers scale, a broad franchise portfolio, and a larger float.
- Relative positioning favors the more stable trend, but the risk and catalyst profiles of the two names differ meaningfully.
Introduction
JAKKS Pacific and Mattel compete in the same consumer discretionary arena—toys, entertainment-inspired products, and licensed consumer goods—yet they operate at very different scales and currently sit on opposite sides of market sentiment. A stock comparison between JAKK and MAT is therefore useful for investors weighing a smaller, turnaround-oriented name against a global franchise leader navigating a leadership change and margin pressure. Traders focused on relative performance and momentum, as well as longer-term investors assessing market positioning and brand durability, may both find the contrast instructive.
JAKK Overview and Recent Performance
JAKKS Pacific is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of toys, costumes, and consumer products headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Its portfolio spans proprietary brands such as Disguise and Fly Wheels alongside licensed properties including Nintendo's Super Mario, Disney, and Sonic the Hedgehog. In its most recent quarter, the company reported global net sales up 17% year over year, led by a 20% gain in North America and a rebound in Action Play & Collectibles, which management said reached its highest level in over 15 years. The operating loss narrowed materially, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) improved versus the prior-year period.
Recent weeks have seen sentiment improve as tariff-related disruptions that pressured 2025 results began to ease and retailers recalibrated pricing. The company remains debt-light, carries a meaningful cash balance, and pays a quarterly dividend that translates to a high-single-digit yield. Its smaller market capitalization and above-average beta (a measure of volatility relative to the broader market) make it more sensitive to news flow, which has contributed to sharp moves in both directions.
MAT Overview and Recent Performance
Mattel is a global play and family-entertainment company whose franchise portfolio includes Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, UNO, Masters of the Universe, and American Girl. In its most recent quarter, net sales rose about 10% year over year, with double-digit growth in North America. Strength was concentrated in Vehicles, led by Hot Wheels, and in Action Figures, Building Sets, Games, and Other, while the Dolls category—particularly Barbie—and Infant, Toddler, and Preschool segments declined. Despite the revenue growth, the company swung to a net loss as tariffs, inflation, higher royalties, and unfavorable foreign exchange compressed gross margin.
Recent market activity has been shaped by a leadership transition: the long-serving CEO stepped down and was replaced by a board member with media and digital experience, a change that coincided with a selloff in the shares. Reports of a potential acquisition approach at a premium briefly lifted the stock, underscoring how sentiment around Mattel's brand value and execution risk remains fluid. The company has reaffirmed its full-year outlook, projecting low-to-mid-single-digit constant-currency sales growth and gradual margin recovery.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most immediate contrast is scale and stability versus momentum and flexibility. Mattel operates a diversified, global franchise portfolio with substantially larger revenue, but its recent results show the cost side overwhelming top-line growth, and a CEO transition introduces execution uncertainty into the holiday season. JAKKS Pacific, by comparison, is a smaller, more nimble operator whose recent sales recovery and narrower losses have translated into positive relative performance and a higher dividend yield, though its smaller scale makes it more exposed to concentration and volatility risks.
Growth drivers also diverge. Mattel is leaning into digital games, entertainment, and its Vehicles franchise to diversify beyond a softening Barbie line. JAKKS Pacific is benefiting from a rebound in collectibles, strong licensed properties such as Super Mario, and an expanding international footprint, while its outdoor seasonal segment remains a structural headwind. From a risk standpoint, both face tariffs and resin-related input costs, but Mattel's margin compression has been more pronounced in recent quarters. On market sentiment, JAKK's improving trend contrasts with MAT's negative year-to-date return and elevated event-driven swings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—trend consistency, relative performance, earnings trajectory, and stability—Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward JAKK in the current environment. JAKKS Pacific's improving sales momentum, narrowing losses, and stronger recent price trend present a more coherent near-term setup than Mattel's combination of revenue growth with margin erosion and a leadership handoff. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: Mattel's scale, franchise depth, and the potential for a catalyst-driven re-rating could shift the relative picture quickly. The AI's preference would reflect the current balance of trend and stability rather than a permanent judgment on either company's long-term value.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is JAKK is a Buy and MAT is a Hold.
Aroon Indicator for JAKK shows an upward move is likely
JAKK's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on November 06, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 227 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 177 of the 227 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for JAKK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +7.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JAKK advanced for three days, in 242 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JAKK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
JAKK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. JAKK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.553) is normal, around the industry mean (1.788). P/E Ratio (23.361) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.633). JAKK's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.860) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.411). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.491) is also within normal values, averaging (4.604).
MAT in -3.41% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 28, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where MAT declined for three days, in 215 of 312 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MAT moved out of overbought territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 10 of the 18 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 56%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MAT as a result. In 61 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MAT turned negative on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 58%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
MAT moved above its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MAT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +0.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MAT advanced for three days, in 173 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
MAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MAT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.195) is normal, around the industry mean (1.788). P/E Ratio (11.287) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.633). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.915) is also within normal values, averaging (1.411). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.732) is also within normal values, averaging (4.604).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MAT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
JAKK | MAT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 45 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 98 Overvalued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 82 | 73 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MAT's Valuation (71) in the Recreational Products industry is in the same range as JAKK (98). This means that MAT’s stock grew similarly to JAKK’s over the last 12 months.
JAKK's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Recreational Products industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MAT (100). This means that JAKK’s stock grew somewhat faster than MAT’s over the last 12 months.
MAT's SMR Rating (46) in the Recreational Products industry is somewhat better than the same rating for JAKK (80). This means that MAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than JAKK’s over the last 12 months.
JAKK's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Recreational Products industry is in the same range as MAT (59). This means that JAKK’s stock grew similarly to MAT’s over the last 12 months.
MAT's P/E Growth Rating (73) in the Recreational Products industry is in the same range as JAKK (82). This means that MAT’s stock grew similarly to JAKK’s over the last 12 months.
| JAKK | MAT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 25 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 72% | 10 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
JAKK’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while MAT’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- JAKK’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MAT’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
JAKK’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MAT’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- JAKK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MAT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
JAKK (@Recreational Products) experienced а +7.17% price change this week, while MAT (@Recreational Products) price change was -0.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Recreational Products industry was +1.96%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.54%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.91%.
Reported Earning Dates
JAKK is expected to report earnings on Feb 18, 2027.
MAT is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Recreational Products (+1.96% weekly)The Leisure and Recreation Products industry includes companies offering recreational goods/services such as video games, swimming pools, golf courses, boats, outdoor spaces etc. Since these are mainly geared towards consumers, strong employment conditions and healthy incomes generally augur well for the recreational products industry. Some of the largest market caps in this space belong to video game developers (e.g. Activision Blizzard, Electronic Arts and Take-two Interactive), and toy /board game makers (like Hasbro).
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JAKK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JAKK has been loosely correlated with FNKO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if JAKK jumps, then FNKO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JAKK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAKK | 100% | +1.97% | ||
| FNKO - JAKK | 47% Loosely correlated | +9.62% | ||
| JOUT - JAKK | 42% Loosely correlated | -0.40% | ||
| CLAR - JAKK | 36% Loosely correlated | +18.12% | ||
| MAT - JAKK | 34% Loosely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| YETI - JAKK | 34% Loosely correlated | -4.22% | ||
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MAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor tells us that MAT and FNKO have been poorly correlated (+33% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that MAT and FNKO's prices will move in lockstep.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAT | 100% | +2.54% | ||
| FNKO - MAT | 33% Poorly correlated | +9.62% | ||
| JAKK - MAT | 32% Poorly correlated | +1.97% | ||
| ONEW - MAT | 31% Poorly correlated | -1.14% | ||
| JOUT - MAT | 27% Poorly correlated | -0.40% | ||
| HAS - MAT | 27% Poorly correlated | -0.53% | ||
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