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KMT vs ROK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Kennametal (KMT) vs. Rockwell Automation (ROK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KMT (Kennametal) delivered sharply higher fiscal 2026 results, driven by unprecedented tungsten pricing and pricing actions, while ROK (Rockwell Automation) posted double-digit earnings growth on broadening automation demand.
- The two companies operate in different niches of the industrial economy: Kennametal in materials science, tooling, and wear-resistant solutions, versus Rockwell in industrial automation and software.
- Kennametal's margin surge has been heavily influenced by raw-material (tungsten) pricing timing, a factor that may be less durable than Rockwell's more recurring software-driven growth.
- Rockwell Automation carries a much larger market capitalization and a higher-growth software mix, while Kennametal trades at a smaller scale with a commodity-sensitive profit profile.
- Both names recently raised guidance, but their risk profiles differ significantly: Kennametal faces working-capital and commodity-cycle pressure, while Rockwell faces capital-spending timing across large industrial end markets.
Introduction
Investors weighing industrial-sector opportunities often face a choice between pure-play manufacturers and diversified automation leaders. This stock comparison examines KMT, a materials-science and tooling specialist, against ROK, a global industrial-automation and digital-transformation company. Although both serve manufacturing customers, their business models, growth drivers, and risk exposures are distinct. Traders focused on relative performance and market positioning may find value in understanding how these two names respond to industrial demand, commodity pricing, and technology adoption. This article reviews recent market activity, key developments, and observable trend signals to help readers compare the two on a consistent basis.
KMT Overview and Recent Performance
Kennametal Inc. (KMT) is an industrial technology leader delivering productivity through materials science, tooling, and wear-resistant solutions. Its roughly 8,100 employees serve customers across aerospace and defense, earthworks, energy, general engineering, and transportation in nearly 100 countries. In recent weeks, the stock has reflected a powerful earnings acceleration tied to an unprecedented rise in tungsten prices. For fiscal 2026, organic sales rose 19% year over year, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS, profit allocated to each share) increased to $4.57 from $1.34. Adjusted EBITDA margin (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, a profitability measure) expanded to 26.9% from 15.2%. Management cited pricing actions, tariff surcharges, and restructuring savings as key drivers.
Recent sentiment has been tempered by cash-flow concerns. Higher tungsten prices inflated inventory and working capital, pushing free operating cash flow into negative territory. The company also raised capital through a term loan and note refinancing to support near-term tungsten-related working capital needs. These dynamics underscore a commodity-sensitive profit profile that has boosted margins in the short term but introduces cyclicality risk if input costs normalize.
ROK Overview and Recent Performance
Rockwell Automation (ROK) is a global leader in industrial automation and digital transformation, headquartered in Milwaukee and employing approximately 26,000 people across more than 100 countries. In its most recent quarter, the company delivered adjusted EPS of $3.30, up 32% year over year, on revenue of $2.24 billion, a 12% increase. Organic sales grew 9%, with enterprise operating margin rising to 22.5%. Strength was broad-based, led by demand in warehouse automation, data centers, semiconductors, and energy, while its Software & Control segment posted 17% organic growth.
Rockwell's emphasis on recurring revenue has supported a more durable growth narrative. Total annual recurring revenue (ARR, subscription-like revenue expected to repeat) rose 6%, including high-single-digit growth in software ARR. The company also completed the dissolution of its Sensia joint venture and raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $12.50 to $13.10. Recent price behavior reflects investor confidence in this execution, though management noted that larger capital projects in automotive and consumer packaged goods remain focused on smaller modernization initiatives rather than a broad unlock of spending.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Kennametal and Rockwell Automation compete in adjacent but meaningfully different parts of the industrial economy. Kennametal is a consumables-and-tooling business whose recent margin expansion has been driven substantially by tungsten pricing and tariff surcharges—factors that can reverse when input costs stabilize. Rockwell, by contrast, blends hardware with software and recurring services, giving it a higher-margin, less commodity-exposed growth profile.
On relative performance, both stocks have benefited from improving industrial demand, but their catalysts differ. Kennametal is levered to aerospace and defense, energy, and earthworks cycles, while Rockwell is levered to automation adoption, data centers, and digital transformation. Risk factors also diverge: Kennametal faces working-capital strain and commodity volatility, whereas Rockwell faces project-timing risk and component-cost inflation, including memory pricing. In terms of scale, Rockwell's market capitalization is far larger, reflecting its broader installed base and software mix, while Kennametal trades at a smaller valuation footprint tied more directly to raw-material economics.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and catalyst quality, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ROK in the current environment. Rockwell's earnings growth is supported by broadening end-market demand, a recurring-revenue software base, and a clean balance sheet, all of which tend to produce more consistent trend signals. Kennametal's surge is real but concentrated in tungsten-related pricing timing, a factor that is inherently less stable and more prone to reversal. That said, an AI-driven evaluation is probabilistic rather than definitive: if tungsten prices remain elevated and aerospace and energy demand stays firm, Kennametal could sustain momentum. The balance of observable factors, however, currently favors Rockwell's steadier, more diversified positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KMT is a Hold and ROK is a Buy.
KMT sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
KMT saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 14, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 52 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for KMT moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 65%.
The 10-day moving average for KMT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 42 of 61 cases where KMT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KMT as a result. In 62 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
KMT moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KMT advanced for three days, in 194 of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
KMT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 105 of 179 cases where KMT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.495) is normal, around the industry mean (3.237). KMT has a moderately low P/E Ratio (6.842) as compared to the industry average of (22.828). KMT's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.020). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.976) is also within normal values, averaging (2.217).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. KMT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KMT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
ROK in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ROK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ROK as a result. In 53 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ROK just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where ROK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
ROK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ROK advanced for three days, in 197 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 149 of 256 cases where ROK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ROK moved out of overbought territory on October 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 29 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ROK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
ROK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 23 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ROK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (13.989) is normal, around the industry mean (4.069). P/E Ratio (41.060) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.908). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.901) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.198) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
KMT | ROK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 41 Fair valued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 98 | 40 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 40 | 30 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 52 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 23 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KMT's Valuation (41) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ROK (90). This means that KMT’s stock grew somewhat faster than ROK’s over the last 12 months.
ROK's Profit vs Risk Rating (40) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KMT (98). This means that ROK’s stock grew somewhat faster than KMT’s over the last 12 months.
ROK's SMR Rating (30) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as KMT (40). This means that ROK’s stock grew similarly to KMT’s over the last 12 months.
ROK's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as KMT (60). This means that ROK’s stock grew similarly to KMT’s over the last 12 months.
ROK's P/E Growth Rating (52) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KMT (94). This means that ROK’s stock grew somewhat faster than KMT’s over the last 12 months.
| KMT | ROK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 63% | 6 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 64% | 20 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 58% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KMT’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while ROK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KMT’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ROK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KMT’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ROK’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KMT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ROK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
KMT (@Tools & Hardware) experienced а +3.23% price change this week, while ROK (@Industrial Machinery) price change was +2.39% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was +5.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.66%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.50%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was +1.43%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
KMT is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
ROK is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Tools & Hardware (+5.88% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
@Industrial Machinery (+1.43% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
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KMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KMT has been closely correlated with HLIO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KMT jumps, then HLIO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KMT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMT | 100% | +5.57% | ||
| HLIO - KMT | 70% Closely correlated | +2.01% | ||
| MIDD - KMT | 69% Closely correlated | +3.80% | ||
| TNC - KMT | 68% Closely correlated | +3.45% | ||
| SXI - KMT | 65% Loosely correlated | +4.14% | ||
| WTS - KMT | 64% Loosely correlated | +2.20% | ||
More | ||||
ROK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ROK has been closely correlated with EMR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ROK jumps, then EMR could also see price increases.