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KMT vs ROK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Kennametal (KMT) vs. Rockwell Automation (ROK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Kennametal (KMT) recently delivered its first quarter of organic sales growth in two years, driven by strength in Aerospace & Defense and Energy end markets, prompting a sharp positive market reaction.
- Rockwell Automation (ROK) closed fiscal 2025 with double-digit organic sales growth in its fourth quarter, record free cash flow of $1.36 billion, and expanding segment margins, reinforcing its position as a premier industrial automation name.
- Both companies are navigating tariff-related cost pressures, but ROK has demonstrated stronger pricing power and margin resilience at significantly larger scale — with annual revenue exceeding $8.3 billion versus KMT's roughly $2 billion.
- KMT is in active restructuring mode, targeting $125 million in cost savings by fiscal 2027, while ROK is simplifying its operating model through the dissolution of the Sensia joint venture.
- Market capitalization and sector exposure differ markedly: ROK (~$44 billion market cap) is a large-cap industrial automation leader, while KMT (~$3.2 billion) is a smaller-cap industrial technology specialist focused on tooling and engineered materials.
- Relative momentum favors ROK, which posted a roughly 43% year-to-date return, though KMT's recent earnings-driven surge signals improving investor sentiment after a prolonged downturn.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the industrial sector frequently encounter a broad spectrum of companies, from diversified automation giants to specialized tooling manufacturers. This comparison examines KMT (Kennametal Inc.) and ROK (Rockwell Automation Inc.) — two U.S.-based industrials with distinct business models, scale, and growth trajectories. While both serve manufacturing end markets, they operate at different points in the industrial value chain and face unique competitive dynamics. Understanding how these two names stack up across recent performance, strategic positioning, and market sentiment may prove useful for investors weighing exposure to the industrial and manufacturing technology space in the current macroeconomic environment.
KMT Overview and Recent Performance
KMT, Kennametal Inc., is a Pittsburgh-based industrial technology company specializing in tooling, engineered components, and advanced materials. The company operates through two primary segments: Metal Cutting and Infrastructure, serving end markets that include aerospace and defense, energy, general engineering, transportation, and earthworks.
After a challenging fiscal 2025 during which full-year sales declined 4% to $1.97 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) contracted to $1.34 from $1.50, Kennametal's recent market activity has shown signs of a turnaround. In its fiscal 2026 first quarter (ended September 2025), the company reported sales of $498 million, representing 3% organic growth — its first quarter of organic expansion in two years. Adjusted EPS of $0.34 handily exceeded Wall Street consensus estimates of approximately $0.23, triggering an 18% single-session stock surge. Key growth drivers included a 20% year-over-year jump in Aerospace & Defense revenue and a 5% increase in Earthworks.
The company continues to execute an ambitious restructuring program, having achieved approximately $65 million in annualized run-rate pre-tax savings since fiscal 2024 and targeting $125 million by fiscal 2027. Tariff impacts, softness in European and Middle Eastern markets, and uneven transportation demand remain notable headwinds. Kennametal also maintains a long-standing dividend program, having paid consecutive dividends since its 1967 NYSE listing, with a current quarterly payout of $0.20 per share.
ROK Overview and Recent Performance
ROK, Rockwell Automation Inc., headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is one of the world's largest pure-play industrial automation and digital transformation companies. Its portfolio spans intelligent devices, software and control systems, and lifecycle services, serving discrete manufacturing, process industries, and hybrid operations globally. With fiscal 2025 annual sales of $8.34 billion, Rockwell operates at a scale far exceeding Kennametal's.
Rockwell finished its fiscal 2025 on a strong note. Fourth-quarter reported sales rose 14% year over year (13% organic), driven by robust demand in the Intelligent Devices and Software & Control segments. Adjusted EPS of $3.34 in the quarter marked a 32% increase from the prior-year period. Full-year adjusted EPS reached $10.53, up 7%, while segment operating margins expanded to 20.4%. Perhaps most notable was the company's cash flow performance: free cash flow hit a record $1.36 billion for the full year, representing 114% conversion — well above the company's 100% target.
During the quarter, Rockwell took several steps to streamline its financial profile, including announcing the dissolution of its Sensia joint venture with SLB and updating its adjusted earnings definition to exclude legacy asbestos and environmental costs. For fiscal 2026, management guided to organic sales growth of 2% to 6% and adjusted EPS of $11.20 to $12.20. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 8% in fiscal 2025, underscoring the company's push into software and connected services. The stock has been a standout performer, with Goldman Sachs upgrading ROK from Sell to Neutral in December 2025, citing structural pricing improvements and renewed cost discipline.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most immediate contrast between KMT and ROK is one of scale and scope. Rockwell Automation generates over four times Kennametal's annual revenue and operates with substantially higher segment margins — approximately 20.4% versus KMT's adjusted operating margin of around 8%. ROK's software and recurring revenue streams, including 8% ARR growth, provide a layer of earnings visibility that KMT's more cyclical tooling and engineered-materials business lacks.
From a growth-driver perspective, both companies benefit from aerospace and defense tailwinds, but ROK's exposure to secular automation trends — reshoring, smart manufacturing, and industrial digital transformation — represents a broader addressable market. KMT, by contrast, is more tethered to short-cycle industrial production and transportation volumes, areas that have faced persistent softness in Europe and the Middle East.
On the risk side, KMT carries elevated restructuring and tariff exposure, with management actively offsetting cost pressures through pricing surcharges and footprint consolidation. ROK also faces tariff headwinds and macroeconomic uncertainty — CEO Blake Moret cited customer capex delays tied to trade policy ambiguity — but the company's pricing power and higher-margin software mix provide a stronger buffer. Rockwell's legacy asbestos liabilities, while well-disclosed and now excluded from adjusted earnings, remain a unique balance-sheet consideration not present for Kennametal.
Market sentiment has favored ROK considerably, with the stock up roughly 43% year-to-date and receiving analyst upgrades. KMT's recent earnings-driven rally suggests sentiment may be inflecting, but the stock had previously underperformed its industrial peer group over the trailing six-month and twelve-month periods. Valuation-wise, ROK trades at a premium forward price-to-earnings ratio reflecting its market-leadership premium, while KMT's multiple remains more subdued, consistent with its smaller scale and turnaround narrative.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, margin quality, cash flow generation, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI analytical framework would likely favor ROK in the current environment. Rockwell Automation's combination of expanding segment margins, record free cash flow, growing recurring revenue, and a clear strategic roadmap — including the Sensia dissolution and structural pricing enhancements — provides a more stable foundation for sustained outperformance. Kennametal's recent organic growth inflection and restructuring progress are encouraging signals, but the company remains earlier in its turnaround trajectory with ongoing exposure to cyclical end-market softness. That said, the risk-reward calculus could shift in KMT's favor if its cost-saving initiatives gain further traction and end-market demand in transportation and general engineering accelerates. Neither stock is without risk, and the relative attractiveness of each will ultimately depend on an investor's time horizon, risk tolerance, and conviction in specific industrial recovery scenarios.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KMT is a StrongBuy and ROK is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KMT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileROK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KMT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ROK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KMT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ROK’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KMT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- ROK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KMT (@Tools & Hardware) experienced а -1.89% price change this week, while ROK (@Industrial Machinery) price change was -1.71% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tools & Hardware industry was +0.28%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.47%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -1.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.22%.
Reported Earning Dates
KMT is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
ROK is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Tools & Hardware (+0.28% weekly)Tools & Hardware industry includes companies that manufacture security products, storage cabinets, steel rules and tapes, calipers, shoe hook fasteners, lumber, structural materials and other related supplies. Stanley Black & Decker, Inc., Snap-on Incorporated and L.S. Starrett Company are some of the largest, established players in this industry. The industry is also seeing rapid growth in online sales. The proliferation of do-it-yourself (DIY) projects has boosted industry demand. But oil price volatility poses potential risks to this industry, particularly to e-commerce companies which spend on services of shipping companies, which might alter charges based on oil price movements.
@Industrial Machinery (-1.71% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
| KMT | ROK | KMT / ROK | |
| Capitalization | 2.66B | 51.3B | 5% |
| EBITDA | 360M | 1.66B | 22% |
| Gain YTD | 23.978 | 19.175 | 125% |
| P/E Ratio | 19.58 | 47.83 | 41% |
| Revenue | 2.14B | 8.8B | 24% |
| Total Cash | 107M | 423M | 25% |
| Total Debt | 660M | 4.05B | 16% |
KMT | ROK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 8 Undervalued | 60 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 85 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 70 | 32 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 41 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KMT's Valuation (8) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ROK (60). This means that KMT’s stock grew somewhat faster than ROK’s over the last 12 months.
ROK's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KMT (85). This means that ROK’s stock grew somewhat faster than KMT’s over the last 12 months.
ROK's SMR Rating (32) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KMT (70). This means that ROK’s stock grew somewhat faster than KMT’s over the last 12 months.
ROK's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as KMT (52). This means that ROK’s stock grew similarly to KMT’s over the last 12 months.
ROK's P/E Growth Rating (41) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as KMT (41). This means that ROK’s stock grew similarly to KMT’s over the last 12 months.
| KMT | ROK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 15 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 65% | 5 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 56% |
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KMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KMT has been closely correlated with HLIO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KMT jumps, then HLIO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KMT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMT | 100% | +0.37% | ||
| HLIO - KMT | 70% Closely correlated | -1.18% | ||
| MIDD - KMT | 69% Closely correlated | +0.11% | ||
| TNC - KMT | 68% Closely correlated | +0.75% | ||
| SXI - KMT | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.39% | ||
| WTS - KMT | 64% Loosely correlated | +0.62% | ||
More | ||||
ROK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ROK has been closely correlated with EMR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ROK jumps, then EMR could also see price increases.