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CMI vs ROK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Cummins Inc. (CMI) vs. Rockwell Automation (ROK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Cummins Inc. (CMI) has meaningfully outperformed Rockwell Automation (ROK) over the past twelve months, driven by surging demand for data center backup power generation, a secular tailwind that has lifted its Power Systems and Distribution segments to record profitability levels.
- Rockwell Automation (ROK) closed its fiscal 2025 with improving momentum — including double-digit organic sales growth in the fourth quarter and record free cash flow — but faces lingering macro uncertainty around customer capital expenditure (CapEx) decisions and a mixed near-term demand environment.
- Both companies are projecting revenue growth of approximately 3% to 8% for the current fiscal year, signaling cautious optimism amid a complex industrial landscape shaped by trade policy uncertainty and shifting end-market demand.
- Cummins carries a significantly larger market capitalization (roughly $89 billion versus Rockwell's approximately $44 billion), yet Rockwell operates with a more asset-light, software- and services-oriented business model that supports structurally higher segment operating margins.
- Analyst sentiment in recent months has tilted more favorably toward CMI, with multiple upgrades from prominent research firms, while ROK has seen a mix of neutral and in-line ratings as the market assesses its near-term growth trajectory.
- Both companies return substantial capital to shareholders — CMI has raised its dividend for 16 consecutive years, while ROK delivered $1 billion in combined dividends and share repurchases in fiscal 2025 — making income and total return considerations central to any comparative evaluation.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the industrial sector often encounter two heavyweight names: CMI (Cummins Inc.), a global power leader best known for diesel engines and power generation systems, and ROK (Rockwell Automation), a premier provider of industrial automation and digital transformation solutions. Although both operate within the broad industrials universe, their business models, growth drivers, and risk exposures differ sharply. This stock comparison examines how CMI and ROK stack up across recent performance, strategic positioning, analyst sentiment, and the signals an AI-driven analytical framework might detect. For traders and long-term investors alike, understanding the relative performance of these two names can clarify where current market momentum and fundamental strength are aligning.
CMI Overview and Recent Performance
CMI (Cummins Inc.), headquartered in Columbus, Indiana, is a diversified power solutions provider operating across five segments: Engine, Components, Distribution, Power Systems, and Accelera (its zero-emissions technology arm). The company reported full-year 2025 revenues of $33.7 billion, down approximately 1% from the prior year, and GAAP net income of $2.8 billion, or $20.50 per diluted share. Results were pressured by non-cash charges totaling $458 million related to a strategic review of the electrolyzer business within Accelera, reflecting shifting hydrogen adoption expectations.
Despite headwinds in North American heavy-duty and medium-duty truck markets, which experienced a sharp cyclical decline during 2025, Cummins demonstrated the resilience of its diversified portfolio. The Power Systems and Distribution segments each posted record full-year sales and profitability, fueled by robust demand for backup power generation equipment tied to data center construction — a secular growth trend that shows little sign of abating. In recent market activity, CMI shares have traded near $640, with a 52-week range of approximately $344 to $738. The stock has attracted multiple analyst upgrades in recent months, including moves from Truist Securities (to Buy), UBS (to Neutral from Sell), and Raymond James (to Outperform), with consensus price targets indicating modest upside from current levels. For the current fiscal year, management projects revenue growth of 3% to 8% and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins of 17.0% to 18.0%, underpinned by expectations of gradual recovery in North American truck markets during the second half of the year.
ROK Overview and Recent Performance
ROK (Rockwell Automation), based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is a global leader in industrial automation and digital transformation, serving customers across discrete, hybrid, and process industries. The company operates through three segments: Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services. In its fiscal 2025 (ended September 30, 2025), Rockwell reported full-year sales of $8.34 billion — up 1% on both a reported and organic basis — and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $10.53, a 7% year-over-year increase. GAAP diluted EPS of $7.67 was weighed down by a non-cash impairment charge related to the dissolution of the Sensia joint venture and legacy asbestos-related accounting adjustments.
The fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 provided a strong finish, with organic sales rising 13% year over year and segment operating margin reaching 22.5%, well above management's expectations. Software & Control was a standout performer, posting 30% organic sales growth, while the e-commerce and warehouse automation vertical surged more than 70%. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew 8%, and the company delivered record free cash flow of $1.36 billion — more than double the prior year's figure — reflecting disciplined cost management and structural productivity savings exceeding $325 million. Looking ahead, Rockwell guided for fiscal 2026 reported sales growth of 3% to 7%, with adjusted EPS of $11.20 to $12.20, though management acknowledged that trade policy uncertainty continues to weigh on customer CapEx plans. Analyst sentiment has been mixed, with Wells Fargo maintaining an Equal-Weight rating and Evercore ISI initiating coverage with an In-Line recommendation.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both CMI and ROK belong to the industrial sector, their business models diverge in ways that create distinctly different investment profiles. Cummins is an asset-intensive manufacturer with deep ties to global freight, construction, mining, and power generation cycles. Its near-term narrative is dominated by data center electrification — a structural tailwind — offset by cyclical exposure to North American truck production, which remains in a trough. Rockwell, by contrast, is an asset-light automation and software franchise whose value proposition centers on productivity enhancement, digital connectivity, and lifecycle services. Its growth is more closely linked to industrial CapEx budgets and technology adoption curves.
On valuation, the contrast is notable: CMI trades at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 34 and a forward P/E near 21, reflecting expectations for earnings recovery. ROK, with a trailing P/E above 50 on a GAAP basis (closer to the high 30s on adjusted earnings), commands a premium multiple consistent with its higher-margin, software-adjacent business profile. In terms of income, CMI's dividend yield of roughly 1.25% — backed by 16 consecutive years of increases — compares favorably with ROK's more modest yield, though Rockwell has been an aggressive buyer of its own shares. From a risk perspective, CMI faces concentrated exposure to diesel engine demand and the uncertain economics of its hydrogen electrolyzer business, while ROK navigates project delays and a slower-than-expected recovery in discrete automation orders. Market sentiment in recent months has favored CMI, as reflected in a string of analyst upgrades and its roughly 89% one-year total return, compared with more moderate gains for ROK over the same period.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and the configuration of fundamental catalysts, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely express a near-term preference for CMI over ROK. The reasoning is multi-layered: CMI benefits from a powerful and durable secular demand driver in data center power generation, while also approaching what many analysts believe to be a cyclical trough in its North American truck business — a combination that creates a favorable asymmetric setup. The stock's sustained uptrend, constructive institutional sentiment (as indicated by a bullish put/call ratio and net fund inflows), and a clear pathway to margin expansion in the current fiscal year all contribute to a relatively high-conviction profile. Rockwell Automation, while executing well on productivity and delivering impressive fourth-quarter momentum, continues to face headwinds from cautious industrial CapEx spending and policy-related uncertainty, which may cap near-term upside. It is important to emphasize that this assessment is probabilistic in nature and reflects only the current constellation of data; conditions can shift rapidly, and AI signals are most effective when integrated into a broader, diversified research process.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMI is a StrongBuy and ROK is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMI’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileROK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CMI’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- ROK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMI’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ROK’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMI’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 7 bearish.
- ROK’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CMI (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +2.66% price change this week, while ROK (@Industrial Machinery) price change was -1.71% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -1.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.22%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMI is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
ROK is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-1.71% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
| CMI | ROK | CMI / ROK | |
| Capitalization | 91.8B | 51.3B | 179% |
| EBITDA | 5.23B | 1.66B | 315% |
| Gain YTD | 31.132 | 19.175 | 162% |
| P/E Ratio | 34.55 | 47.83 | 72% |
| Revenue | 33.9B | 8.8B | 385% |
| Total Cash | 3.18B | 423M | 752% |
| Total Debt | 8.24B | 4.05B | 203% |
CMI | ROK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 27 Undervalued | 60 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 41 | 32 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 41 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CMI's Valuation (27) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ROK (60) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that CMI’s stock grew somewhat faster than ROK’s over the last 12 months.
CMI's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as ROK (37) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that CMI’s stock grew similarly to ROK’s over the last 12 months.
ROK's SMR Rating (32) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as CMI (41) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry. This means that ROK’s stock grew similarly to CMI’s over the last 12 months.
CMI's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as ROK (47) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that CMI’s stock grew similarly to ROK’s over the last 12 months.
CMI's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as ROK (41) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that CMI’s stock grew similarly to ROK’s over the last 12 months.
| CMI | ROK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 15 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 54% | 5 days ago 52% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 56% |
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CMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMI has been closely correlated with DOV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMI jumps, then DOV could also see price increases.
ROK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ROK has been closely correlated with EMR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ROK jumps, then EMR could also see price increases.