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LUNR vs RDW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Intuitive Machines (LUNR) vs. Redwire (RDW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LUNR (Intuitive Machines) is a lunar-focused space infrastructure and services company with a record backlog near $1.8 billion and a roughly $900 million–$1 billion revenue outlook for 2026.
- RDW (Redwire) is a diversified space infrastructure and defense technology firm whose drone and uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) business has expanded rapidly following its Edge Autonomy acquisition.
- LUNR is approaching profitability with positive adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), while RDW continues to post sizable net losses as it scales.
- Both stocks have been highly volatile, with sharp pullbacks from 2026 peaks driven by equity offerings and shifting space-sector sentiment.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, scale, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI currently favors LUNR over RDW in this stock comparison.
- For deeper context, explore LUNR Major News, LUNR Today's Price Move, RDW Major News, and RDW Today's Price Move.
- Discover curated AI-driven strategies by visiting the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Both LUNR and RDW sit at the center of renewed investor enthusiasm for the commercial space economy, yet they operate from very different positions within it. Intuitive Machines concentrates on lunar landers, cislunar communications, and space services, while Redwire supplies hardware and subsystems across space infrastructure and an expanding defense technology segment. For traders and investors weighing relative performance and market positioning, this stock comparison highlights how two high-growth, loss-heavy space names differ in scale, momentum, and risk. Those evaluating sector exposure, growth drivers, or recent price behavior may find the contrast between a lunar-access pure play and a diversified space-and-defense supplier instructive.
LUNR Overview and Recent Performance
LUNR (Intuitive Machines) is a diversified space technology, infrastructure, and services company focused on disrupting lunar access economics. It became the first American company to land a spacecraft on the Moon since 1972 and has executed multiple lunar lander missions. Recent market activity has been shaped by strong revenue growth and a rapidly expanding backlog, alongside execution concerns and dilution. The company posted record quarterly revenue near $187 million, nearly tripling year over year, and reached a backlog of roughly $1.1 billion, later rising toward $1.8 billion on a wave of bookings. Its $800 million acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems and the purchase of Goonhilly Earth Station have broadened its vertical integration. A $500 million equity offering and a quarterly earnings miss have contributed to volatility, with shares trading well below their 52-week high after a strong first-half rally.
RDW Overview and Recent Performance
RDW (Redwire) provides space components, subsystems, and infrastructure, including its Roll-Out Solar Arrays (ROSA), while its defense technology segment has grown sharply after the $925 million acquisition of Edge Autonomy added uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) such as the Stalker and Penguin drones. Recent quarters delivered record revenue and a backlog that climbed past $540 million, with defense technology revenue surging year over year. The company reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $450 million to $500 million and narrowed quarterly losses, though it still recorded a significant first-half net loss and negative operating cash flow. A $500 million at-the-market equity offering and facility expansions have supported growth while weighing on sentiment. After a steep 2026 rally, the stock has retraced substantially, underscoring the sector's high volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is scope and focus. LUNR is a lunar-ecosystem pure play with a heavy reliance on NASA contracts, including a multibillion-dollar Near Space Network award, giving it a larger revenue base and a path toward positive adjusted EBITDA. RDW is more diversified across space hardware and defense, with drone orders and commercial space work providing multiple growth drivers but also more integration risk. On momentum, both stocks surged early in 2026 on SpaceX-related enthusiasm before retreating on dilution and execution worries. Risk factors differ: LUNR carries mission-execution and fixed-price contract risk, while RDW faces acquisition-integration and ongoing profitability challenges. Neither is yet consistently profitable, so relative positioning hinges on backlog conversion, cash flow, and the durability of government demand.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, financial scale, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI currently favors LUNR in this comparison. The company's substantially larger backlog, higher revenue trajectory, and movement toward positive adjusted EBITDA suggest a comparatively stronger fundamental foundation, even as its shares remain volatile. RDW offers attractive defense-technology diversification and rapid growth, but its deeper net losses and heavier reliance on acquisition integration introduce additional uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects observable conditions at the time of writing rather than a definitive forecast; both stocks carry meaningful risk given the sector's early-stage, capital-intensive nature.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LUNR is a Hold and RDW is a Hold.
LUNR in -17.75% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on November 05, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where LUNR declined for three days, in 218 of 258 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LUNR as a result. In 59 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator for LUNR entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where LUNR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LUNR just turned positive on November 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where LUNR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +1.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LUNR advanced for three days, in 174 of 207 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
LUNR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 11 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LUNR's P/B Ratio (-5.780) is slightly lower than the industry average of (5.050). P/E Ratio (-11.138) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.940) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. LUNR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LUNR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
RDW's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for RDW moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 30 of the 33 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RDW advanced for three days, in 238 of 275 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
RDW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on RDW as a result. In 68 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for RDW turned negative on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
The 10-day moving average for RDW crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The 50-day moving average for RDW moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RDW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
The Aroon Indicator for RDW entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 20 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.106) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). P/E Ratio (-6.008) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.630) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. RDW’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RDW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
RDW | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 20 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 96 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 26 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| LUNR | RDW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 83% | 4 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 85% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 83% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 84% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 84% | 12 days ago 87% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 84% | 5 days ago 84% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 89% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LUNR’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while RDW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- LUNR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- RDW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LUNR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RDW’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LUNR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- RDW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
LUNR (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -1.87% price change this week, while RDW (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -14.06% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +2.89%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.78%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.05%.
Reported Earning Dates
LUNR is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
RDW is expected to report earnings on Apr 01, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+2.89% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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LUNR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LUNR has been closely correlated with RKLB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LUNR jumps, then RKLB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LUNR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUNR | 100% | +21.46% | ||
| RKLB - LUNR | 80% Closely correlated | +15.39% | ||
| VOYG - LUNR | 73% Closely correlated | +17.95% | ||
| FLY - LUNR | 71% Closely correlated | +36.80% | ||
| RDW - LUNR | 70% Closely correlated | +16.48% | ||
| PL - LUNR | 68% Closely correlated | +10.38% | ||
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RDW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RDW has been closely correlated with FLY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RDW jumps, then FLY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RDW | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDW | 100% | +16.48% | ||
| FLY - RDW | 72% Closely correlated | +36.80% | ||
| VOYG - RDW | 72% Closely correlated | +17.95% | ||
| LUNR - RDW | 67% Closely correlated | +21.46% | ||
| RCAT - RDW | 62% Loosely correlated | +18.65% | ||
| PL - RDW | 62% Loosely correlated | +10.38% | ||
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