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MO vs PM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Altria Group (MO) vs. Philip Morris International (PM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MO (Altria Group) is a U.S.-focused tobacco company anchored by Marlboro, delivering higher dividend yield but slower growth tied to declining cigarette volumes.
- PM (Philip Morris International) is a global leader in smoke-free products such as IQOS and ZYN, generating stronger revenue and earnings momentum.
- PM has outperformed MO on relative performance, rising roughly 17–20% year to date versus approximately 13% for MO.
- MO trades at a materially lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, reflecting a value and income profile rather than a growth profile.
- The two companies differ sharply on growth drivers, risk exposure, and market positioning despite operating in the same industry.
Introduction
Altria Group and Philip Morris International were once a single company before their 2008 separation, yet today they represent two very different answers to the same question: how a tobacco company survives declining cigarette consumption. This stock comparison is relevant for income-focused investors weighing MO against growth-oriented investors considering PM. Both firms generate substantial cash flow, but their market positioning, geographic exposure, and smoke-free strategies have diverged considerably. Understanding these contrasts helps traders and investors assess which business model is better suited to the current market environment.
MO Overview and Recent Performance
Altria Group is the dominant U.S. tobacco company, owning the Marlboro brand domestically alongside oral nicotine products such as on! nicotine pouches and the NJOY e-vapor line. The company earns the bulk of its profit from smokeable products, where disciplined pricing continues to offset structurally declining cigarette shipment volumes.
In recent weeks, MO has delivered steady but modest earnings growth. Second-quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose about 2.8% year over year, while first-half adjusted EPS increased roughly 4.9%. The stock has gained approximately 13% year to date, roughly in line with the broader S&P 500, and trades at a forward P/E near 11, well below industry averages. A high dividend yield, often cited above 7%, underpins its appeal to income investors. However, oral tobacco segment volumes and retail share have shown softness, and the company continues to face litigation and regulatory exposure in the U.S. market. Sentiment has been supported by pricing power and capital returns, even as the growth narrative remains modest.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International is the global counterpart, selling Marlboro and other cigarette brands outside the United States while building what has become the industry's largest smoke-free portfolio. Its flagship IQOS heated-tobacco platform, the ZYN nicotine pouch brand, and the VEEV e-vapor line now account for more than 40% of total net revenues.
PM's recent market activity reflects stronger momentum than its U.S. peer. Second-quarter net revenue crossed $11 billion for the first time, and adjusted EPS rose about 15% year over year, driving the stock to record levels and a year-to-date gain near 17–20%. International smoke-free revenue has grown at a double-digit organic pace, and the company recently raised its quarterly dividend by nearly 9%. PM did trim its full-year adjusted EPS guidance, primarily due to adverse currency movements and rising costs, but reaffirmed its organic revenue growth outlook. The stock's higher forward P/E, near 21, reflects investor confidence in its growth trajectory rather than its income yield.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two companies is geographic and strategic. MO is concentrated in the mature U.S. market, where cigarette volumes are in long-term decline and growth depends on pricing, share repurchases, and a still-developing smoke-free transition. PM operates across more than 100 markets and has moved further along the smoke-free path, with heated tobacco, nicotine pouches, and e-vapor driving volume growth and margin expansion.
On growth drivers, PM holds a clear advantage: its smoke-free segment is expanding at a double-digit organic rate and now delivers margins exceeding 70% on gross profit, while MO's growth remains heavily reliant on pricing within a shrinking combustible base. On valuation and income, the trade-off reverses: MO offers a substantially lower P/E and a higher dividend yield, appealing to value-oriented investors, whereas PM commands a premium multiple for its growth profile. Risk factors also diverge, with MO more exposed to U.S. litigation, regulation, and illicit e-vapor competition, and PM more exposed to foreign-exchange volatility and international regulatory shifts. Market sentiment has favored PM's momentum, but MO's stability and income characteristics continue to attract defensive investors.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, momentum, and catalyst quality, Tickeron's AI would likely favor PM in the current environment. The stock's record-level price action, double-digit earnings growth, and expanding smoke-free portfolio provide a stronger and more consistent trend than the steadier but slower-moving profile of MO. That said, MO's lower valuation and higher yield could appeal to stability-seeking strategies during risk-off conditions. The relative positioning suggests PM holds the momentum edge, while MO remains the more defensive, income-oriented alternative. This assessment reflects probabilistic analysis of current data rather than a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MO is a Hold and PM is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for MO turns positive, indicating new upward trend
MO saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 54 of the 81 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MO just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where MO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
MO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +3.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MO advanced for three days, in 218 of 385 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 138 of 283 cases where MO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 49%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 36%.
MO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 22 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (25.253) is normal, around the industry mean (16.498). P/E Ratio (14.554) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.513). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.649) is also within normal values, averaging (3.595). Dividend Yield (0.062) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. MO's P/S Ratio (5.744) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.780).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
PM's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PM turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where PM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PM as a result. In 49 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
PM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Following a +0.75% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PM advanced for three days, in 228 of 385 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 184 of 328 cases where PM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PM moved out of overbought territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 55%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
PM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 23 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-14.387) is normal, around the industry mean (16.498). P/E Ratio (26.603) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.513). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.327) is also within normal values, averaging (3.595). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. PM's P/S Ratio (7.022) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.780).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
MO | PM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 22 Undervalued | 23 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 8 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 15 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 28 | 30 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MO's Valuation (22) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (23). This means that MO’s stock grew similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
MO's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (7). This means that MO’s stock grew similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as MO (8). This means that PM’s stock grew similarly to MO’s over the last 12 months.
PM's Price Growth Rating (15) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as MO (29). This means that PM’s stock grew similarly to MO’s over the last 12 months.
MO's P/E Growth Rating (28) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (30). This means that MO’s stock grew similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
| MO | PM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 5 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 36% | 16 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 27% | 1 day ago 39% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 56% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MO’s FA Score shows that 5 FA rating(s) are green while PM’s FA Score has 5 green FA rating(s).
- MO’s FA Score: 5 green, 0 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 5 green, 0 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MO’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PM’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MO (@Tobacco) experienced а +3.39% price change this week, while PM (@Tobacco) price change was -0.30% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -2.66%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.83%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.00%.
Reported Earning Dates
MO is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Tobacco (-2.66% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
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MO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MO has been loosely correlated with PM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MO jumps, then PM could also see price increases.