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MPC vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MPC and VLO are leading independent refiners benefiting from elevated crack spreads and strong refining utilization rates in recent market activity.
- MPC has delivered slightly stronger year-to-date total returns compared with VLO, supported by a larger share repurchase program and diversified midstream cash flows via MPLX.
- VLO maintains a comparatively stronger balance sheet with lower net debt relative to peers, providing greater resilience if refining margins moderate.
- Recent sector tailwinds, including geopolitical supply concerns and robust fuel demand, have lifted both stocks to or near multi-year highs amid favorable refining economics.
- Valuation metrics show MPC trading at a modest discount on forward earnings multiples relative to VLO, though both remain sensitive to crude differentials and global product demand.
- Market sentiment remains constructive for the refining group, with algorithmic models highlighting consistent upward price trends over the past several weeks for both names.
Introduction
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) represent two of the largest independent petroleum refiners in the United States. Investors and traders often compare these names because they operate in the same downstream segment, face identical commodity price exposures, and respond similarly to shifts in refining margins and global fuel demand. This analysis is particularly relevant for those seeking exposure to the energy refining cycle, evaluating relative performance within the sector, or assessing how operational scale, capital allocation, and balance-sheet strength influence outcomes in the current environment.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) operates one of the largest refining systems in the U.S. alongside midstream assets through its MPLX subsidiary. In recent weeks, the stock has exhibited strong upward momentum, driven by elevated refining margins and geopolitical supply disruptions that tightened global fuel markets. Year-to-date returns have exceeded 96 percent, outpacing broader market benchmarks, while share repurchase activity and dividend distributions have supported investor returns. Sentiment has remained positive as utilization rates stayed elevated and analysts highlighted the company’s diversified cash-flow profile.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy (VLO) is a major independent refiner with significant Gulf Coast and international exposure, complemented by ethanol and renewable diesel operations. The stock has also advanced meaningfully in recent market activity, supported by robust crack spreads and strong operational execution. Year-to-date performance has been comparable to peers, with the company maintaining high utilization and returning capital through buybacks and dividends. Investor sentiment has benefited from the company’s disciplined balance-sheet management and ability to capitalize on favorable refining conditions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MPC and VLO share similar business models centered on large-scale refining but differ in scale and diversification. MPC benefits from a larger midstream presence through MPLX, which provides more stable fee-based earnings, while VLO offers greater exposure to renewable diesel and ethanol segments. Recent momentum has favored both names amid high refining utilization, yet MPC has shown marginally stronger price appreciation and a more aggressive capital-return program. Risk factors include commodity price volatility for both, though VLO’s lower leverage offers a potential buffer in margin-compression scenarios. Sector exposure remains nearly identical, with market sentiment reflecting broad optimism for refiners supported by current crack-spread levels.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative valuation, capital-return capacity, and structural diversification, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to MPC. The combination of sustained refining utilization, a substantial remaining buyback authorization, and MPLX cash-flow stability provides a broader set of near-term supports. VLO remains a close alternative given its balance-sheet strength and operational metrics, which could gain favor if market conditions shift toward greater emphasis on financial resilience. Such assessments are probabilistic and subject to rapid changes in refining economics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a Buy and VLO is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileVLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +16.96% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +9.20% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +5.56%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.26%, and the average quarterly price growth was +31.43%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+5.56% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| MPC | VLO | MPC / VLO | |
| Capitalization | 97.8B | 95.1B | 103% |
| EBITDA | 12.4B | 13.7B | 91% |
| Gain YTD | 116.031 | 105.847 | 110% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.08 | 13.77 | 88% |
| Revenue | 135B | 139B | 97% |
| Total Cash | 2.15B | 7.87B | 27% |
| Total Debt | 34.3B | 11.3B | 304% |
MPC | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 34 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 63 Fair valued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 36 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 93 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (63) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (78). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (9). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (36). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (2). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's P/E Growth Rating (93) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (99). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 59% | 21 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 73% |
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MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.