Advertisement
MPC vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MPC and VLO have delivered strong year-to-date (YTD) returns exceeding 52%, reflecting robust performance in the oil refining sector.
- VLO shows superior one-year returns of 121% compared to MPC's 83%, driven by consistent momentum.
- MPC trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.08 versus VLO's 10.78, indicating potentially better valuation.
- MPC boasts a higher return on equity (ROE) of 24.19% compared to VLO's 15.85%.
- VLO offers a higher dividend yield at 1.94% versus MPC's 1.59%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Market caps are closely matched around $73 billion, highlighting their peer status in refining.
Introduction
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) stand as leading players in the U.S. oil refining sector, processing crude into fuels and petrochemicals. This comparison is particularly relevant for energy sector traders and investors navigating volatile commodity prices and refining margins. Both stocks have shown resilience amid recent market activity, offering insights into relative strength, valuation, and growth potential. Traders seeking sector rotation opportunities or long-term holders evaluating dividend payers will find value in assessing their business models, recent momentum, and risk profiles side-by-side for informed positioning in the current environment.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) operates as an integrated downstream energy company, encompassing refining, retail marketing, and midstream operations. With a refining capacity exceeding 3 million barrels per day, it serves key U.S. markets. In recent market activity, MPC has demonstrated strong upward momentum, closing around $246 per share near its 52-week high of $256. Analyst upgrades and a quarterly dividend declaration of $1.00 have fueled investor optimism, with the stock outperforming broader indices in recent sessions. Year-to-date gains surpass 52%, supported by favorable refining crack spreads and upward revisions in earnings estimates, though sensitivity to oil price swings remains a factor influencing sentiment.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) focuses primarily on refining and ethanol production, operating 15 refineries with over 3.2 million barrels per day capacity. It emphasizes operational efficiency and renewable diesel initiatives. Recently, VLO reported robust first-quarter 2026 results, with net income of $1.3 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $4.22, marking a strong turnaround. The stock trades near $247, close to its 52-week high, with YTD returns over 52% and one-year gains of 121%. Positive refining margins and anticipated 117% annual earnings growth have bolstered sentiment, despite occasional underperformance versus the market in volatile sessions.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases the top 25 AI-powered trading bots from its library of hundreds, each designed to trade thousands of tickers across diverse strategies, timeframes, and market conditions. These curated bots excel in current environments, posting annualized returns ranging from 50% to 163% and win rates of 51% to 88%, such as a multi-ticker energy bot at 76% return with 57% win rate or a semiconductor agent at 97% return and 63% win rate. Strategies vary from short-term TP/SL corridors on 5-60 minute charts to trend-following AI agents targeting sectors like energy, semiconductors, and industrials—some directly including oil and energy tickers. Explore these high-performing options to enhance your trading edge in today's markets.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Both MPC and VLO thrive on refining margins but differ in scope: MPC's integrated model includes midstream assets for stability, while VLO prioritizes pure-play refining with renewable expansions. Growth drivers align on crack spreads, yet VLO edges in one-year momentum. Recent performance shows parity in YTD gains but VLO with stronger earnings delivery. Risk profiles feature low betas around 0.6; VLO has lower debt-to-equity (43%) versus MPC's 143%, potentially reducing leverage risk. Market sentiment favors both amid sector tailwinds, with trade-offs in valuation (MPC cheaper forward) and yield (VLO higher).
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward VLO with higher probability in the near term, owing to its recent earnings strength, superior one-year returns, and lower debt profile amid refining sector stability. However, MPC's compelling forward valuation and ROE edge position it well for value-oriented plays if momentum sustains.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a Buy and VLO is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileVLO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -0.78% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -0.18% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -0.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.85%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.37%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-0.10% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| MPC | VLO | MPC / VLO | |
| Capitalization | 72.6B | 72.4B | 100% |
| EBITDA | 12.4B | 9.51B | 130% |
| Gain YTD | 54.165 | 51.321 | 106% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.28 | 17.81 | 91% |
| Revenue | 135B | 125B | 108% |
| Total Cash | 2.15B | 5.73B | 38% |
| Total Debt | 34.3B | 11.5B | 298% |
MPC | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 67 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 65 Fair valued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 79 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 55 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (65) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (82). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (22). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (50). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (43). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's P/E Growth Rating (79) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (97). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 21 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 61% | 6 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 70% |
Advertisement
MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | -0.04% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 86% Closely correlated | +0.50% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 83% Closely correlated | +1.15% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 78% Closely correlated | -0.29% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 77% Closely correlated | +3.56% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 73% Closely correlated | -0.69% | ||
More | ||||