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MPC vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs. Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MPC and VLO have delivered triple-digit gains in 2026, powered by a historic surge in refining margins.
- Marathon Petroleum has led its peer group on relative performance, while Valero has posted comparable but slightly more modest year-to-date returns.
- MPC leans on a diversified midstream business (MPLX) for steadier cash flow, whereas VLO differentiates through heavy-crude feedstock flexibility and a larger renewable fuels footprint.
- Both companies carry elevated valuations after the rally, raising the bar for continued execution.
- Key risk factors for each include refining-margin cyclicality, crude-price volatility, and potential normalization of geopolitical supply disruptions.
Introduction
Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corporation are two of the largest independent refiners in the United States, making them natural comparators for investors assessing the oil refining and marketing sector. Both names have been at the center of a powerful 2026 rally driven by tight global fuel supplies and multi-year-high refining margins. This stock comparison examines their business models, recent performance, and market positioning to help traders and longer-term investors evaluate how these two industry leaders stack up. Because the two companies share similar macro tailwinds yet differ in structure and strategy, their relative performance offers useful insight into where momentum and fundamentals currently diverge.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC), headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, operates one of the largest U.S. refining systems alongside a majority stake in MPLX, a midstream master limited partnership (MLP) that gathers and transports crude, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Recent market activity has been exceptionally strong: MPC's shares have more than doubled year to date, making it one of the top-performing names in the S&P 500 and the best-performing energy stock over the period.
The rally has been supported by fundamentals rather than sentiment alone. Marathon's second-quarter refining and marketing margin climbed to roughly $36 per barrel, up sharply from about $18 a year earlier, with margin capture reaching 112%. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) in its refining segment rose several-fold, while the midstream unit delivered steadier, fee-based growth. Robust cash generation has funded substantial share repurchases and dividends, and the company maintains significant liquidity. Valuation, however, has expanded alongside the price move, leaving less room for execution shortfalls.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), based in San Antonio, Texas, is one of the world's largest independent refiners, operating a network of roughly 15 refineries with combined throughput capacity of more than 3 million barrels per day across the U.S., Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company also produces ethanol and holds a 50% stake in Diamond Green Diesel, a large renewable diesel producer, positioning it more directly in low-carbon fuels than many peers.
Like MPC, Valero has benefited materially from elevated refining margins. Its shares have surged more than 120% over the past year and roughly 130% year to date, aided by a heavy-crude advantage that lets its Gulf Coast refineries source discounted feedstocks from the U.S., Canada, and Venezuela. Valero ended its latest quarter with net debt-to-capitalization of about 11% and added billions to its cash balance, underscoring balance-sheet strength. Recent weeks have seen analyst earnings estimates revised higher, though the stock's sharp advance has also lifted its valuation premium relative to the broader industry.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most meaningful contrast between MPC and VLO lies in business-model structure rather than sector exposure. Marathon's MPLX stake provides a diversified, fee-based cash-flow stream that cushions the cyclicality of refining, whereas Valero's heavier tilt toward feedstock flexibility and renewable diesel adds a distinct long-term growth narrative. Both have strong balance sheets and aggressive shareholder-return programs, but MPC has carried a somewhat higher premium on certain valuation metrics after its outsized run.
On momentum, MPC has generally edged ahead in relative performance, though VLO has also outperformed the broader market by a wide margin. Risk factors are similar: both are exposed to refining-margin normalization, crude-price swings, maintenance activity, and potential shifts in geopolitical supply conditions that have recently tightened global fuel markets. Investors weighing these names are effectively choosing between Marathon's integrated midstream stability and Valero's feedstock and renewable-fuels optionality.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely express a marginal preference for MPC at present, reflecting its leadership in relative momentum and the supportive cash-flow diversification provided by its midstream operations. That said, VLO retains strong catalysts through its heavy-crude advantage and renewable fuels platform, and the gap between the two remains narrow. Any verdict should be treated as probabilistic rather than definitive, as refining economics can shift quickly with changes in crack spreads, crude differentials, and supply dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a Hold and VLO is a Hold.
MPC's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MPC turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where MPC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MPC as a result. In 66 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +5.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPC advanced for three days, in 288 of 373 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 255 of 339 cases where MPC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
MPC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 39, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.734) is normal, around the industry mean (46.814). P/E Ratio (13.503) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.488). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for VLO turns positive, indicating new upward trend
VLO saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 79 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 69 of the 79 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VLO just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where VLO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +5.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VLO advanced for three days, in 284 of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 246 of 332 cases where VLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VLO moved out of overbought territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 32 of the 51 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 63%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VLO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
VLO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. VLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 39, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.486) is normal, around the industry mean (46.814). P/E Ratio (16.246) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.488). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.918) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.869) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MPC | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 92 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 66 Overvalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 3 | 2 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 93 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (66) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (74). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (3). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (34). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (1) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (2). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's P/E Growth Rating (93) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (99). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 87% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 59% | 16 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 74% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +2.93% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +0.06% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -0.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +50.07%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-0.47% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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