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MPC vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MPC and VLO are major U.S. oil refiners that have delivered substantial year-to-date gains exceeding 150% amid elevated refining margins.
- MPC reported second-quarter 2026 net income of $5.1 billion, while VLO posted $3.7 billion, reflecting strong operational performance across the sector.
- Recent analyst activity includes price target increases for both stocks, with MPC shares trading near all-time highs around $425 and VLO near $413–$415.
- Upcoming earnings releases—November 3 for MPC and October 22 for VLO—will provide further insight into margin sustainability.
- Market capitalization for both companies stands near $119 billion, with comparable exposure to refining throughput, renewable diesel, and capital return programs.
- Alternative data signals show a modest edge for MPC in AI scoring metrics relative to VLO as of mid-September 2026.
Introduction
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) represent two of the largest independent refining companies in the United States, making them natural benchmarks for investors evaluating downstream energy exposure. This comparison examines their recent performance, operational metrics, and market positioning within a sector influenced by crude differentials, product demand, and refining crack spreads. Portfolio managers, sector specialists, and traders monitoring energy cyclicals may find the analysis relevant when assessing relative value and momentum in the refining space.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates a large-scale refining network with additional midstream assets through its MPLX subsidiary. In recent weeks, MPC shares have advanced on the back of robust second-quarter results that included $5.1 billion in net income and $8.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA, driven by favorable refining margins and operational execution. The company also announced an expanded $5 billion share repurchase authorization, contributing to capital returns exceeding $2.8 billion in the quarter. Analyst upgrades and upward revisions to earnings estimates have supported sentiment, with the stock trading near record levels above $424 as of mid-September 2026. Broader market activity in the refining sector has amplified gains, though long-term structural demand risks for refined products remain a noted consideration.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy Corporation maintains a global refining footprint with significant Gulf Coast and international exposure, alongside renewable diesel operations. Recent market activity has seen VLO deliver strong second-quarter earnings of $3.7 billion, supported by elevated refining and renewable diesel margins. The company added an independent director with financial expertise to its board in September 2026, and it continues to execute shareholder returns, including a $2.6 billion distribution in the second quarter. Shares have climbed to levels near $413–$415 amid sector tailwinds, with year-to-date performance exceeding 157%. Upcoming third-quarter results scheduled for October 22 will offer additional visibility into margin trends and operational updates.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a curated Trending AI Robots section that highlights select AI trading bots from a broader library of hundreds available across thousands of tickers. Only those demonstrating strong alignment with prevailing market conditions, consistent performance statistics, and suitable risk parameters earn placement in this focused area. Available bots span diverse trading styles, timeframes, and ticker sets, with performance metrics that can include varying win rates, drawdown profiles, and return ranges depending on the specific strategy. Users can explore the full selection and filter by criteria to identify options matching their objectives.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Both companies operate in the oil refining and marketing sector, yet MPC benefits from integrated midstream exposure via MPLX, potentially offering greater earnings stability compared with VLO’s heavier emphasis on standalone refining and renewable diesel. Recent momentum has favored MPC with larger absolute earnings in the second quarter and slightly higher AI scoring, while VLO has posted marginally stronger year-to-date percentage gains and a higher dividend yield near 1.16% versus approximately 0.94% for MPC. Risk factors for both include refining margin volatility and exposure to crude feedstock costs, though VLO’s feedstock flexibility on the Gulf Coast provides a noted operational contrast. Market sentiment remains constructive for the peer group, with capital return programs serving as a common support for valuations near current levels.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings momentum, and relative AI scoring as of the latest available data, Tickeron’s models assign a modest probabilistic preference to MPC over VLO in the current environment. This edge stems primarily from stronger recent earnings scale and alternative-data signals, though both stocks exhibit comparable positioning within the refining cycle. Outcomes remain subject to evolving margin dynamics and upcoming earnings disclosures.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a StrongBuy and VLO is a StrongBuy.
MPC | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 45 | 38 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 3 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | 5 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 89 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (73) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (82). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (5). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (34). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (5) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (6). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's P/E Growth Rating (89) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (98). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 76% | 6 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 74% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -5.15% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -5.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -7.76%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was +22.68%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-7.76% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.