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MPC vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- VLO has posted stronger recent earnings momentum and record refining throughput, while MPC offers greater diversification through its midstream business.
- Both refiners have benefited from a sharp rebound in crack spreads (the margin between crude oil and refined product prices) over the past year, lifting margins well above multi-year lows.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and catalysts, Tickeron's AI currently leans toward VLO as the favored ticker of the two.
- VLO raised its quarterly dividend and completed a strategic exit from California, while MPC continues to lean on buybacks and growing distributions from its midstream affiliate.
- Explore deeper coverage on MPC Major News and MPC Today's Price Move, as well as VLO Major News and VLO Today's Price Move.
- For automated market insights, explore Trending AI Robots to see which AI trading bots are currently favored by market conditions.
Introduction
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) and Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) are two of the largest independent petroleum refiners in the United States, making them frequent subjects of a head-to-head stock comparison for energy-focused investors. Both companies convert crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other products, and both are highly sensitive to refining margins, seasonal fuel demand, and global crude supply shifts. Traders and long-term investors evaluating the refining sector often weigh these two names to understand relative performance and market positioning. This comparison examines recent business developments, stock behavior, and the observable factors that could differentiate the two in the current market environment.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, operates the nation's largest refining system alongside a substantial midstream (pipeline and logistics) business through its majority stake in MPLX. This integrated structure gives MPC a degree of earnings stability that pure-play refiners often lack. In recent quarters, the company reported a meaningful rebound in refining margins, with its refining and marketing segment posting sharply higher adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) compared with the prior year, supported by stronger crack spreads and roughly 95% capacity utilization. Management has also continued a disciplined capital-return program, declaring a higher quarterly dividend and repurchasing shares while maintaining a large authorized buyback. These factors have supported a firmer price trend and generally constructive analyst coverage in recent weeks, even as the broader refining cycle remains sensitive to crude price volatility.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy, based in San Antonio, Texas, is a multinational refiner and renewable fuels producer operating 15 petroleum refineries with roughly 3.2 million barrels per day of throughput capacity, plus a network of ethanol plants and a 50% stake in the Diamond Green Diesel renewable diesel joint venture. In recent quarters, VLO delivered standout results, including record refining throughput, a roughly 98% full-year utilization rate, and a sharp year-over-year increase in refining segment operating income. The company raised its quarterly dividend and completed a strategic exit from California that management expects to reduce sustaining capital spending. Valero's Gulf Coast configuration also positions it to process discounted heavy crude. While strong momentum has drawn some analyst valuation concerns and downgrades in recent weeks, the company's operational execution and shareholder-return discipline have kept sentiment broadly constructive.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a large library of AI trading bots that trade thousands of different tickers, but only a select group earns a place in the curated Trending AI Robots section. These robots are highlighted because their performance and strategies are considered the most suitable for current market conditions. Each bot operates with its own trading style, timeframe, strategy, performance history, and basket of tickers, giving traders a range of approaches rather than a one-size-fits-all signal. Many bots report measurable statistics spanning win rates, trade frequency, and return profiles, allowing users to compare styles before acting. For investors following names like MPC and VLO, exploring Trending AI Robots can offer an additional, data-driven perspective on timing and positioning.
Head-to-Head Comparison
While both companies operate in the same refining and marketing sector, their business models differ in meaningful ways. MPC leans on a diversified, integrated value chain, with midstream cash flows from MPLX helping to cushion refining-cycle volatility. VLO, by contrast, is more concentrated in refining and renewable fuels, which makes its results more directly levered to crack spreads and feedstock economics. In terms of recent momentum, VLO has delivered stronger earnings surprises and record operating metrics, while MPC has offered steadier, diversified growth. Risk profiles also differ: VLO carries feedstock exposure tied to heavy crude and U.S. policy, while MPC faces refining operating-cost pressures. On valuation, VLO's premium multiple has attracted scrutiny, whereas MPC trades at a comparatively more moderate level.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Assessing the two names through the lens of trend consistency, earnings momentum, operational catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI currently shows a modest preference for VLO. The company's record throughput, sharp rebound in refining income, dividend increase, and favorable heavy-crude feedstock advantage present a comparatively stronger near-term catalyst profile. That said, the signal is probabilistic rather than definitive: MPC's diversified midstream stability and more conservative valuation remain notable strengths that could narrow the gap if refining margins soften. The balance of observable factors currently tilts toward VLO, but the outcome is best treated as a data-informed lean rather than a certainty.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a StrongBuy and VLO is a Hold.
MPC in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
MPC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 24 of 28 cases where MPC's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPC advanced for three days, in 288 of 373 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 267 of 351 cases where MPC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MPC as a result. In 48 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MPC turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 70%.
MPC moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 41, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.554) is normal, around the industry mean (4.605). P/E Ratio (13.061) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.815). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.065) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
VLO's RSI Oscillator entering oversold zone
The RSI Oscillator for VLO moved into overbought territory on November 05, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VLO advanced for three days, in 287 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
VLO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 266 of 338 cases where VLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 79%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VLO as a result. In 44 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VLO turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 25 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 56%.
VLO moved below its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for VLO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VLO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 41, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.045) is normal, around the industry mean (4.605). P/E Ratio (14.641) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.815). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.918) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.065) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.869) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MPC | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 73 | 89 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 10 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 82 | 93 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MPC's Valuation (85) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (88). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (10). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (34). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (37). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's P/E Growth Rating (82) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (93). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 77% | 17 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 79% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -12.76% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -8.67% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -7.99%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.86%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-7.99% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | -3.86% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 88% Closely correlated | -3.91% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 85% Closely correlated | -4.85% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 81% Closely correlated | -6.50% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 78% Closely correlated | -5.85% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 73% Closely correlated | -1.39% | ||
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