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PARR vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PARR has delivered a staggering 347% one-year return, far outpacing VLO's 115%, driven by explosive momentum in refining margins.
- PARR trades at a discounted trailing P/E ratio of 9 versus VLO's 31, offering better value for growth-oriented investors.
- Year-to-date, PARR is up 83% compared to VLO's 47%, reflecting stronger recent momentum.
- VLO provides a reliable 2% dividend yield (forward), while PARR reinvests for growth with no payout.
- Both stocks benefit from favorable crack spreads in recent market activity, but PARR's smaller scale amplifies upside volatility.
- Analyst sentiment favors PARR with Strong Buy ratings and higher upside potential.
Introduction
In the refining sector, where crack spreads (the difference between crude oil and refined product prices) have widened amid supply dynamics and demand resilience, PARR and VLO stand out as key players. This comparison suits swing traders eyeing momentum and value investors seeking relative performance in energy stocks. Both companies operate refineries converting crude into fuels, but differ in scale and strategy, making them relevant for portfolios balancing growth and stability in volatile oil markets.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) is an independent energy firm focused on refining, retail, and logistics, operating facilities in Hawaii, Washington, Wyoming, and beyond. Its Refining segment processes crude into gasoline, diesel, and asphalt, while Retail sells fuels and merchandise under brands like Hele and 76.
In recent weeks, PARR shares have surged near their 52-week high of $67.39, propelled by robust refining margins and analyst upgrades, including Goldman Sachs' Buy rating with a $77 target. Year-to-date gains exceed 83%, fueled by favorable crack spreads and operational efficiencies. Sentiment has shifted positively on value perception, with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), though its beta near 1 signals market-like volatility.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a major downstream player manufacturing fuels and petrochemicals via Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol segments. It produces gasoline blends, diesel, jet fuel, and sustainable aviation fuel, selling through branded outlets like Valero and Ultramar.
Recent market activity has seen VLO climb toward its 52-week high of $258.43, supported by expanding margins ahead of Q1 earnings on April 30. YTD performance stands at 47%, with one-year returns at 115%, bolstered by renewable diesel volumes despite some legal headwinds. Lower beta (0.61) underscores stability, though trailing P/E expansion reflects scale advantages in a high-margin environment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
PARR (market cap $3.2B) contrasts VLO ($71B) as a nimble mid-cap versus a diversified giant. Growth drivers favor PARR's 347% annual return and 26.8% ROE (return on equity, a profitability measure relative to shareholders' investment), outshining VLO's steadier 115% gain and 8.3% ROE.
Recent momentum tilts to PARR amid crack spread expansion, but VLO counters with renewables exposure. Risk factors include PARR's higher beta and no dividend versus VLO's yield and lower volatility. Sector exposure is pure refining for both, with PARR more West Coast-focused and VLO global. Market sentiment leans bullish on PARR's value (P/S 0.44 vs. 0.60) but appreciates VLO's scale.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors PARR with higher conviction, citing its trend consistency, outsized relative performance, and undervaluation (trailing P/E under 10) amid sustained refining catalysts. While VLO offers stability and income, PARR's momentum positions it probabilistically stronger for near-term upside in this environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PARR is a Hold and VLO is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PARR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileVLO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PARR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PARR’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PARR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -8.11% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -7.55% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -6.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.94%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
PARR is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-6.63% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| PARR | VLO | PARR / VLO | |
| Capitalization | 2.55B | 70.2B | 4% |
| EBITDA | 792M | 9.51B | 8% |
| Gain YTD | 44.821 | 46.738 | 96% |
| P/E Ratio | 5.76 | 17.26 | 33% |
| Revenue | 7.54B | 125B | 6% |
| Total Cash | 172M | 5.73B | 3% |
| Total Debt | 1.35B | 11.5B | 12% |
PARR | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 69 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 28 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 79 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 40 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLO's Valuation (81) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (94) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (38) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's SMR Rating (28) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as VLO (50) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (51) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's P/E Growth Rating (79) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as VLO (97) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PARR | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 78% | 17 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 70% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| TCHP | 50.67 | 0.97 | +1.95% |
| T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth ETF | |||
| IRTR | 32.13 | 0.19 | +0.58% |
| iShares LifePath Retirement ETF | |||
| HOOY | 33.09 | 0.13 | +0.39% |
| YieldMax HOOD Option Income Strategy ETF | |||
| RFV | 142.72 | 0.48 | +0.34% |
| Invesco S&P MidCap 400® Pure Value ETF | |||
| SEPM | 32.79 | 0.05 | +0.17% |
| FT Vest U.S. Eq Max Buffr ETF - Sep | |||
PARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PARR has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PARR jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | 100% | +0.08% | ||
| DK - PARR | 76% Closely correlated | -2.05% | ||
| VLO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | -1.45% | ||
| DINO - PARR | 70% Closely correlated | -2.14% | ||
| PBF - PARR | 68% Closely correlated | -1.27% | ||
| MPC - PARR | 67% Closely correlated | -0.69% | ||
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