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PARR vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PARR is a smaller, regionally concentrated independent refiner, while VLO operates one of the largest refining systems in the world.
- Both stocks have posted strong relative performance in recent months, benefiting from tight fuel supplies and elevated refining margins.
- Par Pacific's results are more sensitive to a handful of West Coast and Rocky Mountain refineries, amplifying both upside and downside.
- Valero offers greater scale, diversification across refining, renewable diesel, and ethanol, and a more established capital-return track record.
- Analyst sentiment and estimate revisions currently tilt more favorably toward Valero, though both names face cyclical refining risk.
Introduction
Investors weighing the U.S. refining sector often compare PARR and VLO as two very different ways to access the same macro theme. Par Pacific Holdings is a nimble, regionally focused refiner whose fortunes hinge on a concentrated asset base, while Valero Energy is a diversified industry leader with global scale and multiple earnings engines. This stock comparison is relevant for traders seeking momentum and for longer-term investors evaluating business quality, risk exposure, and market positioning within a cyclical, commodity-driven industry. Understanding how each company converts fuel demand and crack spreads into earnings is central to assessing their relative performance.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
Par Pacific Holdings is a Houston-based independent refiner operating roughly 219,000 barrels per day of refining capacity across Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, and the Rocky Mountains, supported by logistics and retail operations. In recent weeks, PARR has benefited from unusually strong refining economics, with its second-quarter adjusted earnings surging sharply year over year as refining margins expanded across its system. The Hawaii refinery, in particular, delivered standout margin improvement after the completion of a major turnaround.
Sentiment has also been shaped by the company's strategic efforts to diversify beyond commodity refining, including a renewable fuels project and a partnership with Mitsubishi and ENEOS. Shares have delivered a triple-digit one-year return, although the stock remains volatile and carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). Because results depend on a concentrated set of regional refineries, outages, regulatory changes, or margin reversals can move earnings quickly.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy is one of the world's largest independent refiners, running roughly three million barrels per day of throughput across the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, West Coast, and North Atlantic, alongside renewable diesel and ethanol segments. Recent market activity has been strong for VLO, with the stock outpacing the broader energy sector over the past month and delivering a notable one-year total return. Second-quarter results showed broad-based gains, as refining margins improved and the renewable diesel business swung back to profitability.
The company has returned a large share of its cash flow to shareholders and continues to raise its dividend. Analyst estimate revisions have trended higher, and Valero currently holds a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy). Still, the stock trades at a premium to many long-range fair-value estimates, reflecting expectations already embedded in the price, and it remains exposed to the same cyclical swings in fuel demand and crude spreads that affect the wider sector.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two refiners is scale and diversification. Valero's broad geographic footprint and multi-segment structure smooth out regional disruptions that can disproportionately affect Par Pacific's concentrated asset base. Par Pacific, however, offers higher operating leverage to refining margins, meaning its earnings can expand more dramatically when crack spreads (the difference between refined product prices and crude oil costs) are favorable.
Growth drivers also differ. PARR is pursuing a renewable fuels transition and retail expansion, while VLO leverages refining optimization projects and an established renewable diesel platform. On risk, both face commodity cyclicality, but Par Pacific adds geographic concentration and turnaround-related volatility, whereas Valero's risks center more on the sustainability of elevated margins and renewable credit values. Market sentiment currently appears more constructive on Valero, reflecting stronger estimate revisions and institutional support.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, estimate momentum, and the breadth of earnings drivers, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward VLO in the current environment. Valero's larger, more diversified earnings base, rising analyst revisions, and stronger relative positioning within the refining sector point to greater trend stability than Par Pacific's concentrated, higher-volatility profile. That said, PARR retains meaningful upside potential given its operating leverage to favorable margins. The AI verdict should therefore be read as probabilistic rather than definitive, with the choice ultimately depending on each trader's tolerance for risk and exposure to refining-cycle swings.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PARR is a Hold and VLO is a Hold.
PARR | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 91 | 94 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 73 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 2 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 10 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 86 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLO's Valuation (73) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (94) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (14) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's SMR Rating (19) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as VLO (34) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (36) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's P/E Growth Rating (86) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as VLO (99) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PARR | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 5 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 75% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PARR’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PARR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PARR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PARR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +12.30% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +6.69% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +2.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was +32.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
PARR is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+2.03% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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PARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PARR has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PARR jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | 100% | +5.62% | ||
| DK - PARR | 77% Closely correlated | +4.16% | ||
| PBF - PARR | 74% Closely correlated | +6.99% | ||
| DINO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | +5.01% | ||
| VLO - PARR | 72% Closely correlated | +5.38% | ||
| MPC - PARR | 68% Closely correlated | +6.25% | ||
More | ||||
VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.