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PARR vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) vs. Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) and Valero Energy (VLO) both delivered strong gains in 2025 and into 2026, though their scale, business models, and market positioning differ sharply.
- PARR is a niche regional refiner with roughly 219,000 barrels per day of capacity, while VLO is a global-scale operator with 3.2 million barrels per day across 15 refineries.
- Both companies benefited from elevated refining margins in recent quarters, supported by tight global product inventories and steady distillate demand.
- VLO returned $4.0 billion to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and buybacks, underscoring its emphasis on consistent capital returns, whereas PARR directed excess cash toward aggressive share repurchases and strategic growth projects.
- Valuation metrics diverge meaningfully: PARR trades at a lower EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) multiple, reflecting its smaller scale, while VLO commands a premium for its diversification and financial resilience.
Introduction
Investors evaluating opportunities in the downstream energy sector frequently weigh the trade-offs between niche regional operators and globally diversified refining giants. Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) and Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) represent two ends of this spectrum. Both companies refine crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other products, but their scale, geographic footprints, and strategic priorities differ dramatically. This comparison is relevant for traders seeking to understand relative performance dynamics, sector tailwinds, and how AI-driven analytical tools might interpret the divergence between a high-beta specialty refiner and an established industry heavyweight. In recent months, both stocks have ridden a wave of supportive refining fundamentals, yet their paths forward present distinct risk-reward profiles.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), headquartered in Houston, Texas, operates an integrated downstream energy business spanning refining, retail, and logistics. The company's refining capacity of approximately 219,000 barrels per day is concentrated in strategically insulated markets—Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, Wyoming, and Montana—where logistical barriers to entry provide a competitive moat. PARR also runs over 100 retail fuel and convenience locations and maintains a logistics network of pipelines, terminals, and storage assets.
In recent market activity, PARR has demonstrated exceptional momentum. After closing 2024 at $16.39 per share, the stock surged approximately 114% during 2025, closing the year near $35, and climbed further into 2026, crossing above $60 by mid-year. This dramatic recovery was fueled by a sharp turnaround in financial performance. Full-year 2025 net income reached $369.4 million—or $7.16 per diluted share—compared to a net loss of $33.3 million in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) expanded to $633.5 million for the year, up from $238.7 million. A notable catalyst was a small refinery exemption (SRE) gain of approximately $200 million recognized in the third quarter of 2025, which meaningfully boosted reported results. The company also repurchased roughly 10% of its outstanding shares over the course of 2025, signaling management's confidence and providing a tailwind for per-share metrics.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO), based in San Antonio, Texas, stands as one of the world's largest independent petroleum refiners. The company operates 15 refineries across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, with a combined throughput capacity of approximately 3.2 million barrels per day. Beyond conventional refining, VLO maintains a substantial renewables footprint through 12 ethanol plants (producing roughly 1.7 billion gallons annually) and a 50% stake in Diamond Green Diesel, North America's largest renewable diesel producer. The company also markets fuel through approximately 7,000 branded retail outlets.
VLO's recent performance reflects the strength of its diversified, scaled operating model. For full-year 2025, the company reported net income of $2.3 billion, or $7.57 per diluted share, with adjusted net income of $3.3 billion, or $10.61 per share. Operating cash flow for the year reached $5.8 billion, underpinning substantial shareholder returns: VLO returned $4.0 billion to stockholders in 2025 through a combination of dividends and share repurchases, representing a payout ratio of roughly 67% of adjusted net cash from operations. On January 22, 2026, the company raised its quarterly dividend by 6% to $1.20 per share, marking continued commitment to returning capital. The stock appreciated approximately 37% in 2025 and extended gains meaningfully into 2026, with prices surpassing $240 by mid-year, reflecting investor confidence in the company's operational execution and capital discipline.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between PARR and VLO is most pronounced when examining scale, diversification, and risk exposure. VLO's 3.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity dwarfs PARR's 219,000, granting the larger company meaningful advantages in crude procurement, logistical optimization, and cost absorption. VLO's geographic and product diversification—spanning three continents, plus ethanol and renewable diesel operations—provides a buffer against regional disruptions, whereas PARR's concentrated footprint in Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest means a single operational setback or localized economic downturn can disproportionately affect results.
On the growth and momentum front, PARR has been the more explosive performer in percentage terms, with its stock more than doubling in 2025 and continuing to climb into 2026. This reflects both the low base from which it started and the meaningful improvement in refining economics. VLO, while delivering strong absolute returns, has moved at a steadier pace more characteristic of a mature, large-cap enterprise. Valuation also tells a differentiated story: PARR trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple below 5x, while VLO commands a multiple above 7x, reflecting the market's willingness to pay a premium for scale, stability, and proven capital-return policies. In terms of shareholder returns, VLO's regular and growing dividend provides an income component that PARR does not offer, while PARR's aggressive buyback program has meaningfully reduced its share count, amplifying per-share earnings growth.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability of underlying fundamentals, and relative positioning within the refining sector, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely express a near-term preference for Valero Energy (VLO) in a risk-adjusted context, while acknowledging PARR's superior momentum characteristics. VLO's record operational throughput, disciplined capital allocation, rising dividend, and diversified revenue streams present a profile of sustainable strength that trend-following algorithms tend to favor. The company's consistent share buybacks, strong balance sheet with net debt-to-capitalization below 20%, and proven ability to generate robust free cash flow across cycles offer a reliability premium. PARR, by contrast, offers greater torque to refining margin improvements and has demonstrated remarkable price appreciation, but its smaller scale and geographic concentration introduce higher volatility—factors that probabilistic AI models would weigh carefully. In sum, a trend-oriented AI would likely recognize VLO as the more statistically stable candidate for sustained positive positioning, while PARR might be favored by bots calibrated for higher-beta, momentum-driven opportunities.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PARR is a Hold and VLO is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PARR’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileVLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PARR’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PARR’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PARR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +11.16% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +3.84% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +3.50%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +17.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was +44.35%.
Reported Earning Dates
PARR is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+3.50% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| PARR | VLO | PARR / VLO | |
| Capitalization | 4.31B | 90.1B | 5% |
| EBITDA | 792M | 13.7B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 144.821 | 95.056 | 152% |
| P/E Ratio | 9.74 | 13.05 | 75% |
| Revenue | 7.54B | 139B | 5% |
| Total Cash | 172M | 7.87B | 2% |
| Total Debt | 1.35B | 11.3B | 12% |
PARR | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 48 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 29 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 31 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLO's Valuation (71) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (85) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (16) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's SMR Rating (29) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as VLO (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (34) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's P/E Growth Rating (31) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is significantly better than the same rating for VLO (99) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew significantly faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PARR | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 84% | 4 days ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 81% | 4 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 77% | 11 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 82% | 4 days ago 73% |
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PARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PARR has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PARR jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | 100% | +0.14% | ||
| DK - PARR | 76% Closely correlated | +0.24% | ||
| VLO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| DINO - PARR | 71% Closely correlated | -1.05% | ||
| MPC - PARR | 68% Closely correlated | +0.76% | ||
| PBF - PARR | 68% Closely correlated | -1.12% | ||
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