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PARR vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) vs. Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) and Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) both operate in the oil and gas refining and marketing sector, with VLO representing a larger-scale integrated refiner and PARR focusing on regional operations across the western United States.
- Recent market activity shows VLO shares trading near multi-month highs amid index reclassifications and refining margin strength, while PARR has demonstrated volatility following its Q1 2026 earnings release that highlighted a return to profitability.
- VLO maintains broader geographic exposure and a larger market capitalization, positioning it with greater access to diverse crude slates and international markets compared to PARR’s more concentrated refining footprint.
- Both stocks have benefited from refining margin improvements in recent weeks, though VLO’s upcoming Q2 2026 earnings report on July 30 serves as a near-term catalyst absent for PARR at present.
- Risk factors differ, with PARR exposed to regional operational and financing developments and VLO influenced by global crude differentials and regulatory shifts in low-carbon fuels.
- Relative performance over the trailing twelve months has favored smaller refiners like PARR in percentage terms, while VLO offers scale-driven stability and dividend income.
Introduction
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) and Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) represent distinct profiles within the energy refining space. Investors and traders evaluating refining sector exposure often compare these names to assess differences in scale, operational focus, and market positioning. This analysis examines recent price behavior, earnings developments, and sector dynamics to provide objective context for portfolio decisions. Market participants seeking to understand relative momentum between a mid-cap regional refiner and a large-cap integrated operator may find the comparison useful for evaluating trade-offs in volatility, liquidity, and growth drivers amid fluctuating crude prices and refining margins.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) operates refineries primarily in Hawaii, Washington, Montana, and Wyoming, producing conventional and renewable fuels along with retail and logistics assets. In recent market activity, shares have fluctuated following the company’s first-quarter 2026 results, which reported net income of $54.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $91.5 million, reversing a prior-year loss. Throughput rose and adjusted gross margins per barrel expanded, supporting positive sentiment. Broader sector tailwinds from refining economics have contributed to price movement in recent weeks, though regional operational factors and capital structure updates have influenced trading ranges.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is one of the largest independent refiners, with extensive operations in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Latin America, plus renewable diesel capacity. Recent market activity has featured upward price movement, including a notable single-day gain exceeding 6 percent amid index inclusion effects and favorable refining conditions. The company’s first-quarter results demonstrated strength in refining margins, and anticipation surrounding its second-quarter 2026 earnings release scheduled for July 30 has shaped sentiment. Larger scale and diversified crude sourcing have supported relative stability compared with smaller peers during recent periods of energy market volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) functions as a regional refiner with integrated retail and logistics, while Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) operates at greater scale with international reach and significant renewable diesel exposure. Growth drivers for PARR center on throughput optimization and margin expansion at its western U.S. facilities; VLO benefits from global crude differentials and a broader product slate. Recent momentum has shown both names advancing with refining sector strength, yet VLO has recorded more pronounced index-driven gains. Risk factors include PARR’s higher sensitivity to regional feedstock costs and capital structure events versus VLO’s exposure to international regulatory and geopolitical variables. Sector exposure remains comparable, though market sentiment has recently favored VLO’s liquidity and dividend profile over PARR’s higher-beta characteristics.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings visibility, and relative positioning within the refining sector, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probability of favorable near-term momentum to Valero Energy Corporation (VLO). Its larger scale, upcoming earnings catalyst, and broader market participation provide a more stable profile compared with the more regionally concentrated Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR). This assessment remains probabilistic and contingent on continued refining margin conditions and macroeconomic developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PARR is a Buy and VLO is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PARR’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileVLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PARR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PARR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PARR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +12.46% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +4.83% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +6.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was +31.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
PARR is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+6.68% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| PARR | VLO | PARR / VLO | |
| Capitalization | 3.3B | 83.3B | 4% |
| EBITDA | 792M | 9.51B | 8% |
| Gain YTD | 87.194 | 74.303 | 117% |
| P/E Ratio | 7.45 | 20.50 | 36% |
| Revenue | 7.54B | 125B | 6% |
| Total Cash | 172M | 5.73B | 3% |
| Total Debt | 1.35B | 11.5B | 12% |
PARR | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 11 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 28 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 5 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 40 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLO's Valuation (84) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (94) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (26) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's SMR Rating (28) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as VLO (50) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (5) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (37) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's P/E Growth Rating (59) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VLO (96) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew somewhat faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PARR | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 86% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 12 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 25 days ago 78% | 17 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 82% |
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PARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PARR has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PARR jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | 100% | +0.37% | ||
| DK - PARR | 76% Closely correlated | -1.03% | ||
| VLO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | -0.20% | ||
| DINO - PARR | 70% Closely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| PBF - PARR | 68% Closely correlated | -0.24% | ||
| MPC - PARR | 67% Closely correlated | +0.16% | ||
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VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | -0.20% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 86% Closely correlated | +0.16% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 83% Closely correlated | -0.77% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 78% Closely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 77% Closely correlated | -0.24% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 73% Closely correlated | +0.37% | ||
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