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PARR vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both PARR and VLO are refining-driven energy companies that have benefited from a strong refining-margin cycle, but they operate at sharply different scales and risk profiles.
- VLO is a diversified mega-cap refiner with Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and international exposure plus renewable diesel and ethanol segments; PARR is a small-cap operator concentrated in Hawaii, the Rockies, and the U.S. West Coast.
- PARR returns capital primarily through aggressive share buybacks, while VLO combines a growing dividend with repurchases.
- VLO carries a larger balance sheet with lower relative leverage, whereas PARR operates with higher debt and greater concentration risk.
- Both names have rallied substantially in recent months, prompting several analysts to flag valuation as a key near-term consideration.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two companies at opposite ends of the U.S. refining spectrum. VLO is one of the world's largest independent refiners, while PARR is a smaller, regionally concentrated energy company. Both have been strong relative performers during a period of elevated refining margins and tight transportation-fuel supplies, yet their market positioning, business models, and risk profiles differ meaningfully. This comparison may be relevant to investors weighing diversified scale against higher-beta, concentrated exposure, as well as to traders evaluating momentum and sector rotation within energy.
PARR Overview and Recent Performance
Par Pacific Holdings operates through Refining, Retail, and Logistics segments, with refineries in Hawaii, Montana, Washington, and Wyoming plus a retail network and midstream infrastructure. Recent market activity has reflected a sharp improvement in earnings: the company swung to a profit in the first quarter, reporting net income of roughly $54 million versus a prior-year loss, supported by record Hawaii throughput and the commercial start-up of a renewable fuels (sustainable aviation fuel) facility. Sentiment has been shaped by an open-ended $250 million buyback authorization, the retirement of a significant portion of outstanding shares, and reduced interest costs from a term-loan repricing. Offsetting these positives are higher leverage, regional regulatory exposure, and margin volatility—factors that have led some analysts to trim ratings on valuation grounds even as the stock has advanced sharply over the past year.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy is a multinational refiner and fuel marketer operating roughly 14 refineries across the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. with combined throughput capacity near 3.0 million barrels per day, alongside the Diamond Green Diesel renewable-diesel joint venture and 12 ethanol plants. Recent performance has been exceptionally strong: first-quarter net income reached about $1.3 billion, and second-quarter results accelerated further, driven by wide refining margins, tight diesel markets, and operational reliability. The company has also exited its Benicia, California refinery, citing regulatory conditions, and has continued returning cash through a raised dividend and buybacks. The stock has climbed to record highs in recent months, outperforming the broader energy sector, though the pace of gains has prompted several analysts to raise price targets while debating whether current levels already reflect sustained margin strength.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two is scale and diversification. VLO spreads its refining exposure across multiple regions and pairs it with renewable diesel and ethanol operations, providing earnings breadth and a lower-cost, higher-capacity system. PARR is far more concentrated, with outsized sensitivity to regional crack spreads, crude differentials, and West Coast regulatory dynamics. On capital returns, PARR emphasizes buybacks and lacks a dividend, while VLO offers a regular, recently increased dividend alongside repurchases. Both carry sector-cyclical risk tied to refining margins and commodity prices, but PARR adds balance-sheet and single-region concentration risk that VLO largely diversifies away. Momentum has favored both, though VLO's rally to record highs reflects broad sector leadership, while PARR's gains reflect a turnaround in earnings and aggressive share-count reduction.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, diversified positioning, and catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VLO in the current environment. The company's broader asset base, steadier cash-generation profile, and ongoing capital returns support a more consistent trend signature than PARR's higher-beta, more concentrated exposure. That said, PARR's leverage to improving regional margins and its shrinking share count could sustain stronger percentage moves if refining conditions remain favorable. The relative positioning therefore tilts toward VLO for stability and trend consistency, while PARR may appeal to traders seeking higher volatility and turnaround-driven momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PARR is a Hold and VLO is a Hold.
Aroon Indicator for PARR shows an upward move is likely
PARR's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on September 29, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 296 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 241 of the 296 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +9.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PARR advanced for three days, in 269 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
PARR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PARR as a result. In 61 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PARR turned negative on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 81%.
PARR moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PARR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PARR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.026) is normal, around the industry mean (5.102). P/E Ratio (4.613) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.854). PARR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (9.990) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.494) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
VLO's RSI Indicator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VLO moved out of overbought territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 35 of the 51 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VLO as a result. In 52 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VLO turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VLO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
VLO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +0.79% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VLO advanced for three days, in 287 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 260 of 338 cases where VLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. VLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.909) is normal, around the industry mean (5.102). P/E Ratio (17.769) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.854). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.918) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.869) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PARR | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 2 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 83 | 95 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
VLO's Valuation (88) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (96) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PARR (16) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's SMR Rating (19) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as VLO (34) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PARR (37) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that VLO’s stock grew somewhat faster than PARR’s over the last 12 months.
PARR's P/E Growth Rating (83) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as VLO (95) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that PARR’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PARR | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 24 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PARR’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PARR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PARR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PARR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PARR (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -4.25% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -4.00% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -3.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was +37.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
PARR is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-3.81% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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PARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PARR has been closely correlated with DK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PARR jumps, then DK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PARR | 100% | -5.34% | ||
| DK - PARR | 77% Closely correlated | -3.11% | ||
| PBF - PARR | 74% Closely correlated | -2.81% | ||
| VLO - PARR | 73% Closely correlated | -2.40% | ||
| DINO - PARR | 72% Closely correlated | -2.59% | ||
| MPC - PARR | 69% Closely correlated | -1.86% | ||
More | ||||
VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | -2.40% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 87% Closely correlated | -1.86% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 84% Closely correlated | -1.88% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 80% Closely correlated | -2.59% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 79% Closely correlated | -2.81% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 73% Closely correlated | -5.34% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| KVLE | 28.03 | 0.06 | +0.21% |
| KraneShares Value Line Dynamic Dividend Equity Index ETF (KVLE) | |||
| RJDI | 29.06 | -0.17 | -0.58% |
| RJ Eagle GCM Dividend Select Income ETF (RJDI) | |||
| EPSV | 28.83 | -0.43 | -1.47% |
| Harbor Smid Cap Value ETF | |||
| CWI | 39.33 | -0.68 | -1.70% |
| State Street SPDR MSCI ACWI ex-US ETF (CWI) | |||
| NVDU | 124.32 | -11.74 | -8.63% |
| Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X ETF (NVDU) | |||