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PBF vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? PBF Energy (PBF) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PBF Energy, a smaller independent refiner, has delivered stronger year-to-date (YTD) gains of about 51% compared to VLO's 47%, driven by refining sector momentum.
- Over the past year, PBF shares surged roughly 160%, outpacing VLO's 115% advance, highlighting PBF's higher volatility in the oil refining space.
- Recent market activity shows PBF experiencing sharper pullbacks, down nearly 19% in the last month, versus VLO's milder 3.6% decline.
- VLO, with a market cap over $71 billion, offers greater scale and stability than PBF's $4.8 billion, appealing to risk-averse investors.
- Both stocks benefit from elevated refining margins, but VLO heads into earnings with bullish expectations for EPS growth over 200% year-over-year.
- Investor sentiment reflects caution on PBF amid potential negative earnings and major shareholder sales, contrasting VLO's resilient positioning.
Introduction
PBF Energy (PBF) and Valero Energy (VLO) are key players in the U.S. oil refining sector, processing crude into fuels amid volatile energy markets. This comparison analyzes their business models, recent price behavior, and market positioning, helping traders and long-term investors weigh opportunities in refining stocks. With refining margins supported by supply dynamics and demand recovery, both have posted strong YTD gains, but differing scales and momentum offer distinct risk-reward profiles. Investors tracking energy sector relative performance will find insights into momentum shifts and sector catalysts here.
PBF Overview and Recent Performance
PBF Energy operates independent refineries across the U.S., including facilities in California, the Midwest, and the East Coast, focusing on gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel production. In recent market activity, PBF shares traded around $40.77, with a 52-week range of $16.35 to $52.18 and a market cap of $4.8 billion. YTD performance reached 51%, fueled by refining crack spreads, though shares dipped nearly 19% over the past month amid cooled momentum and a major shareholder sale of $497 million in stock by an entity linked to Carlos Slim. Sentiment has been influenced by the restart of Martinez refinery units and analyst adjustments, including raised price targets to $34, but concerns linger over potential negative quarterly earnings. Higher beta of 0.90 reflects elevated volatility tied to commodity swings.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy, one of the largest independent refiners, manages 15 refineries with significant renewable diesel capacity, emphasizing efficient throughput and product diversification. Shares recently closed at $238.25, within a 52-week range of $112.23 to $258.43, backed by a $71 billion market cap and trailing PE ratio (price-to-earnings) of 31.4. YTD gains stood at 47%, with a one-year return of 115%, though monthly performance softened by 3.6%. Key influences include resilient Q4 results, upward EPS revisions for upcoming earnings projecting over 233% growth, and analyst target hikes to $255, despite incidents like a Port Arthur refinery fire. Lower beta of 0.72 underscores relative stability in refining market fluctuations.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both PBF and VLO thrive on refining margins but differ in scale: VLO's vast network provides diversified exposure and cost efficiencies, while PBF targets nimble operations in key regions. Growth drivers include crack spreads and throughput, yet PBF shows superior long-term momentum with 160% one-year gains versus VLO's 115%. Recent weeks highlight trade-offs: PBF's sharper corrections signal higher risk from earnings uncertainty and sales pressure, contrasting VLO's steadier sentiment amid positive catalysts. Sector risks like crude volatility impact both, but VLO's lower beta and dividend yield offer defensive appeal over PBF's growth-oriented volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward VLO for its trend consistency, lower relative volatility, and near-term catalysts like robust earnings expectations. While PBF exhibits stronger historical outperformance, VLO's scale and stability position it favorably in the prevailing refining environment, with probabilistic edge in sustained momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PBF is a Hold and VLO is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PBF’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileVLO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PBF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PBF’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PBF’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -0.93% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -1.37% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -0.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was +20.68%.
Reported Earning Dates
PBF is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-0.72% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| PBF | VLO | PBF / VLO | |
| Capitalization | 4.65B | 72.4B | 6% |
| EBITDA | 1.43B | 9.51B | 15% |
| Gain YTD | 47.007 | 51.383 | 91% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.37 | 17.81 | 58% |
| Revenue | 30.2B | 125B | 24% |
| Total Cash | 542M | 5.73B | 9% |
| Total Debt | 3.6B | 11.5B | 31% |
PBF | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 67 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 27 Undervalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 66 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 55 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (27) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VLO (82). This means that PBF’s stock grew somewhat faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PBF (66). This means that VLO’s stock grew somewhat faster than PBF’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (50) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (77). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (51). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's P/E Growth Rating (60) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VLO (97). This means that PBF’s stock grew somewhat faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PBF | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 82% | 21 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 73% | 6 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 70% |
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PBF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBF has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBF jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF | 100% | +5.36% | ||
| VLO - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | +3.17% | ||
| DK - PBF | 76% Closely correlated | +3.40% | ||
| DINO - PBF | 75% Closely correlated | +2.08% | ||
| PARR - PBF | 73% Closely correlated | +0.31% | ||
| MPC - PBF | 72% Closely correlated | +1.80% | ||
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