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PBF vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? PBF Energy (PBF) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale gap: VLO operates roughly 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of throughput across 14 refineries, roughly three times the ~1 million bpd capacity of PBF's six refineries.
- Shared tailwind: Both refiners are benefiting from unusually strong crack spreads (the margin between crude oil and refined products), driven by geopolitical supply disruptions and low global fuel inventories.
- Momentum leader: Valero's 2026 gain of roughly 140% has outpaced PBF's advance of about 110%, though both have delivered exceptional relative performance.
- Balance sheet contrast: Valero ended Q2 2026 with ~$7.9 billion in cash, while PBF has aggressively deleveraged, cutting net debt by more than 62% during the quarter.
- Valuation tension: VLO trades at a premium EV/EBITDA multiple versus the refining industry average, while PBF sits near the top of its own five-year valuation range.
Introduction
PBF Energy and Valero Energy are two of the most closely watched names in the U.S. refining sector, yet they represent very different risk-and-reward profiles. This stock comparison is relevant for investors who want to evaluate how a mid-sized independent refiner stacks up against one of the world's largest downstream energy companies during a period of historic fuel-market dislocation. Both stocks have surged on elevated refining margins and tight product supply, but their scale, diversification, balance-sheet strength, and market positioning differ meaningfully. Understanding these trade-offs can help traders assess which stock better fits a given outlook on refining margins, crude differentials, and capital-return priorities.
PBF Overview and Recent Performance
PBF Energy is one of the largest independent refiners in North America, operating six refineries across the East Coast, Gulf Coast, West Coast, and Mid-Continent with combined crude processing capacity of about one million barrels per day. The company also holds a 50% stake in the St. Bernard Renewables renewable diesel joint venture.
Recent market activity has been exceptionally strong for PBF. In its second quarter of 2026, the company reported adjusted earnings of $6.22 per share, reversing a year-ago loss of $1.03, while revenues surged 56.2% to $11.68 billion. The return of the Martinez refinery to full operations in May restored a key part of its West Coast capacity, and management reported a company-wide gross refining margin of $23.40 per barrel, up from $8.38 a year earlier. PBF has also lowered its structural cost base through its Refining Business Improvement (RBI) program, targeting more than $350 million in run-rate savings by the end of 2026, and cut net debt by over 62% during the quarter. The shares have risen roughly 110% over the past year, though a brief pullback followed headlines about a possible U.S. diesel export ban.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy is a multinational manufacturer and marketer of transportation fuels and petrochemical products, operating 14 refineries in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom with combined throughput capacity of about three million barrels per day. It also runs renewable diesel and ethanol segments, providing a more diversified earnings base than many refining peers.
VLO has posted a historic rally, climbing roughly 140% in 2026 and heading toward its strongest annual performance in records dating back to 1982. In the second quarter of 2026, Valero reported adjusted earnings of $12.54 per share, with revenues up 48.8% to $44.48 billion. Refining margin per barrel of throughput rose to $23.62 from $12.35 a year earlier. Beyond refining, its Renewable Diesel segment swung to $717 million in operating income from a $79 million loss, and ethanol operating income more than quintupled. Valero ended the quarter with approximately $7.87 billion in cash and a low net debt-to-capitalization ratio of about 11%, supporting continued stockholder returns including a quarterly dividend of $1.20 per share.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two stocks is scale and diversification. Valero's 14-refinery footprint and its renewable diesel and ethanol businesses provide multiple earnings engines and greater resilience when any single region or product underperforms. PBF, by comparison, is a leaner operator whose results are more sensitive to regional dynamics, particularly the West Coast and East Coast markets that are structurally short on refining capacity.
Growth drivers also differ. PBF's near-term story leans heavily on the Martinez restart and structural cost savings from its RBI initiative, which can improve margin capture even in less favorable market conditions. Valero's story is broader, anchored in Gulf Coast feedstock flexibility, renewable-credit economics, and a balance sheet that supports substantial shareholder returns.
Risk factors diverge as well. PBF faces higher Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) compliance costs, which more than doubled year over year, and carries a heavier debt-reduction history. Valero faces valuation risk, trading at an EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) multiple of roughly 8.2x versus an industry average near 5.8x, and analysts' price targets suggest the stock may already reflect much of the current margin strength.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward VLO for trend consistency and stability, given its larger, more diversified earnings base, stronger balance sheet, and multiple simultaneous profit engines. Valero's relative performance has also been the more persistent of the two, with broader momentum support. However, PBF presents a higher-beta, catalyst-driven profile that could outperform if West Coast margins remain elevated and its cost program continues to translate into stronger free cash flow. In probabilistic terms, VLO currently offers a more balanced risk-reward setup, while PBF's appeal rests on continued execution and favorable regional refining conditions rather than the stability of a diversified platform.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PBF is a StrongBuy and VLO is a Hold.
PBF | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 94 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 27 Undervalued | 73 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 2 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 41 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 10 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 86 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (27) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VLO (73). This means that PBF’s stock grew somewhat faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (25). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (34) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (41). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (10) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (35). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's P/E Growth Rating (86) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (99). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PBF | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 5 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 75% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PBF’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PBF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PBF’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PBF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +14.52% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +6.69% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +2.03%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was +32.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
PBF is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+2.03% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.