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PBF vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? PBF Energy (PBF) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PBF returned to profitability in late 2025 on stronger refining margins, but still posted a full-year net loss and carries a wider mix of analyst opinions.
- VLO delivered record fourth-quarter results, raised its dividend, and has shown steadier momentum and stronger balance-sheet metrics.
- Both are refining-heavy businesses, yet VLO is far more diversified across geography, feedstocks, ethanol, and renewable diesel.
- PBF's near-term story is concentrated on the Martinez refinery restart and reliability-driven cost savings, while VLO benefits from scale and complex Gulf Coast capacity.
- Institutional sentiment currently appears more constructive on VLO, with several analysts maintaining Overweight or Buy ratings, while PBF ratings remain mixed.
Introduction
Investors tracking the energy sector frequently weigh independent refiners against larger, integrated-scale competitors, and the pairing of PBF and VLO captures that dynamic well. PBF Energy is a mid-size, pure-play refiner with a concentrated U.S. footprint, while Valero Energy is one of the world's largest refining and fuels manufacturers with diversified operations across North America and the United Kingdom. This stock comparison is most relevant for energy-focused traders and value-oriented investors evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and how operational catalysts and balance-sheet strength translate into share-price behavior in the current refining cycle.
PBF Overview and Recent Performance
PBF Energy Inc. is one of North America's largest independent refiners, operating six refineries in California, Delaware, Louisiana, New Jersey, and Ohio. The company also holds a 50% stake in the St. Bernard Renewables joint venture producing renewable diesel. In recent weeks, PBF reported a fourth-quarter return to profitability, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.49 beating consensus expectations for a loss, supported by a higher gross refining margin per barrel and lower operating costs. For the full year, however, the company still recorded a net loss of roughly $158 million.
Sentiment has been shaped by two dominant factors. First, progress on restoring the Martinez refinery in California after a 2025 fire, with a restart targeted for early 2026, has been a key catalyst. Second, insurance recoveries—totaling around $893 million of unallocated proceeds received in 2025—have strengthened the balance sheet. Management's reliability and business-improvement program aims to deliver roughly $350 million in run-rate cost savings by the end of 2026. Still, analyst views remain divided, with both upgrades and downgrades issued in recent months, reflecting the stock's operational-specific risk profile.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
VLO (Valero Energy Corporation) is a multinational manufacturer and marketer of petroleum-based and low-carbon transportation fuels, operating 15 refineries across the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom with roughly 3.2 million barrels per day of combined throughput capacity. Valero also owns 12 ethanol plants and participates in the Diamond Green Diesel joint venture producing renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel.
Recent market activity has favored VLO, which reported record fourth-quarter results, with adjusted EPS of $3.82 beating consensus estimates and full-year refining margins improving to about $12.29 per barrel from $10.62 a year earlier. The company raised its quarterly dividend to $1.20 per share and maintained a disciplined capital-return framework. Valero has also increased purchases of Venezuelan crude following changes in U.S. sanctions policy, a feedstock shift suited to its complex Gulf Coast refineries. With a larger cash position and a lower net debt-to-capitalization ratio, VLO has presented comparatively steadier fundamentals and more consistent analyst support in recent months.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two refiners is scale and diversification. VLO operates a geographically and segmentally diversified model spanning refining, ethanol, and renewable diesel, which tends to smooth earnings volatility across commodity and regulatory cycles. PBF is more concentrated, both in its six-refinery footprint and in its reliance on refining-margin capture, making it more sensitive to regional crack spreads and plant-specific events.
On growth drivers, PBF's path depends heavily on the Martinez restart, insurance proceeds, and cost-savings execution, all of which introduce execution uncertainty. VLO's drivers are more structural—complex Gulf Coast capacity well suited to heavy crude, a $230 million fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) optimization project at its St. Charles refinery, and ongoing ethanol expansion.
Risk profiles differ as well. PBF's balance sheet, with roughly $1.6 billion in net debt and about $530 million in cash, is leaner relative to its size than VLO's, which ended 2025 with about $4.7 billion in cash. Market sentiment has trended more favorably toward VLO, reflected in steady Buy and Overweight ratings and a Zacks Rank indicating expected near-term outperformance, whereas PBF's consensus skews toward Hold with a wider target-price range.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—trend consistency, balance-sheet strength, diversification, and catalyst breadth—Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward VLO. Valero's record results, rising dividend, broader operating base, and steadier analyst support point to a more durable trend profile. PBF offers a higher-beta recovery narrative tied to the Martinez restart and margin improvement, which could produce sharp moves but also carries greater execution and regional risk. In probabilistic terms, the AI framework would likely favor VLO for trend stability while treating PBF as a more tactical, event-driven candidate rather than a core trend holding.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PBF is a Hold and VLO is a Hold.
PBF's RSI Oscillator peaks and leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for PBF moved out of overbought territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 35 of the 42 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PBF as a result. In 61 of 74 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PBF turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PBF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
PBF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +8.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PBF advanced for three days, in 264 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 245 of 315 cases where PBF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PBF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.509) is normal, around the industry mean (5.102). P/E Ratio (7.048) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.854). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.190) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.260) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
VLO in +0.79% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on October 21, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where VLO advanced for three days, in 287 of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VLO as a result. In 61 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 260 of 338 cases where VLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VLO moved out of overbought territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 34 of the 51 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 67%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 37 of 60 cases where VLO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VLO turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VLO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
VLO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. VLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 36, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.030) is normal, around the industry mean (5.093). P/E Ratio (18.206) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.969). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.918) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.869) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PBF | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 87 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 46 Fair valued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 2 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 41 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 82 | 95 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (46) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VLO (88). This means that PBF’s stock grew somewhat faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (28). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (34) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (41). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (34). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's P/E Growth Rating (82) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as VLO (95). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PBF | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 23 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 2 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PBF’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while VLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PBF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PBF’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PBF’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -8.90% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -5.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -3.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.23%, and the average quarterly price growth was +38.17%.
Reported Earning Dates
PBF is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-3.23% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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PBF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBF has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBF jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF | 100% | -2.81% | ||
| VLO - PBF | 79% Closely correlated | -2.40% | ||
| DINO - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | -2.59% | ||
| DK - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | -3.11% | ||
| MPC - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | -1.86% | ||
| PARR - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | -5.34% | ||
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