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PBF vs VLO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? PBF Energy (PBF) vs. Valero Energy (VLO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PBF Energy and Valero Energy operate in the same refining sector but differ significantly in scale, with Valero Energy maintaining a substantially larger market capitalization and diversified operations.
- Both stocks have delivered strong year-to-date gains amid favorable refining margins, though PBF Energy has shown more pronounced recent price momentum in market activity.
- Valero Energy benefits from greater operational scale, higher revenues, and stronger cash positions, providing relative stability compared to the smaller PBF Energy.
- Recent market sentiment for both has been supported by industry-wide factors including crude price dynamics and crack spreads, with analyst attention focused on upcoming quarterly results.
- PBF Energy exhibits higher volatility and leveraged upside potential tied to margin recovery, while Valero Energy offers more consistent positioning with broader exposure to downstream products.
- Market positioning highlights trade-offs between PBF Energy’s agility in smaller-cap refining plays and Valero Energy’s established infrastructure and earnings resilience.
Introduction
This comparison examines PBF Energy (PBF) and Valero Energy (VLO), two participants in the petroleum refining industry, to help traders and investors assess relative performance and market positioning. Both companies process crude oil into fuels and petrochemical products, exposing them to similar sector dynamics such as refining margins and commodity price fluctuations. The analysis focuses on recent market activity, business fundamentals, and observable trends to provide context for those evaluating energy sector allocations. Institutional and retail participants seeking to understand contrasts in scale, momentum, and risk profiles within refining may find this relevant for portfolio construction or tactical decisions.
PBF Overview and Recent Performance
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) is an independent refiner focused on producing transportation fuels, heating oil, and petrochemical feedstocks. In recent weeks, the stock has exhibited notable upward movement driven by improving refining margins and operational updates, including refinery restarts. Broader market activity has reflected heightened interest in smaller-cap refining names amid favorable crack spread conditions. Sentiment has been influenced by industry tailwinds such as crude price volatility, contributing to outperformance relative to broader benchmarks over the recent period. The company’s more concentrated asset base can amplify both gains and volatility in response to margin shifts.
VLO Overview and Recent Performance
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is one of the largest independent refiners with extensive operations across North America and international exposure, including ethanol production. Recent market activity has shown steady gains supported by cost efficiencies and analyst upgrades, with the stock advancing amid sustained refining profitability. Developments in the past month have included multiple price target increases from major firms, reflecting confidence in operational execution. Sentiment remains constructive due to the company’s scale and diversified downstream portfolio, which provides some buffer against sector-specific fluctuations compared to smaller peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business model terms, PBF Energy operates as a focused refiner with a smaller footprint, while Valero Energy maintains broader scale and additional segments such as ethanol. Growth drivers for both center on refining margins, yet Valero Energy’s larger revenue base and cash reserves offer greater capacity to weather downturns. Recent momentum has favored PBF Energy with sharper percentage advances, contrasting Valero Energy’s more measured appreciation backed by frequent analyst support. Risk factors include PBF Energy’s higher sensitivity to single-asset issues versus Valero Energy’s diversified exposure. Sector sentiment remains positive for refining overall, though Valero Energy’s positioning as a larger-cap name typically attracts more stable institutional flows.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, earnings visibility, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic edge to Valero Energy (VLO) due to its scale, stronger balance sheet metrics, and sustained analyst momentum. PBF Energy (PBF) demonstrates compelling short-term momentum but carries higher volatility tied to its size. This assessment reflects current data patterns rather than guarantees of future outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Disclaimers and LimitationsTo compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PBF is a Buy and VLO is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PBF’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileVLO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PBF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- VLO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PBF’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VLO’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PBF’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- VLO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +16.61% price change this week, while VLO (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +9.42% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +8.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +12.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was +34.93%.
Reported Earning Dates
PBF is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
VLO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+8.37% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| PBF | VLO | PBF / VLO | |
| Capitalization | 6.8B | 87.8B | 8% |
| EBITDA | 1.43B | 9.51B | 15% |
| Gain YTD | 114.916 | 83.680 | 137% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.16 | 21.61 | 70% |
| Revenue | 30.2B | 125B | 24% |
| Total Cash | 542M | 5.73B | 9% |
| Total Debt | 3.6B | 11.5B | 31% |
PBF | VLO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 79 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 35 Fair valued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 49 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 6 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 26 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VLO (85). This means that PBF’s stock grew somewhat faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PBF (49). This means that VLO’s stock grew somewhat faster than PBF’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's SMR Rating (50) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (77). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
VLO's Price Growth Rating (6) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (37). This means that VLO’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's P/E Growth Rating (26) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for VLO (96). This means that PBF’s stock grew significantly faster than VLO’s over the last 12 months.
| PBF | VLO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 83% | 15 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 26 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 73% | 1 day ago 84% |
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PBF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBF has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBF jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF | 100% | +8.01% | ||
| VLO - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | +5.38% | ||
| DK - PBF | 76% Closely correlated | +4.50% | ||
| DINO - PBF | 75% Closely correlated | +4.65% | ||
| PARR - PBF | 73% Closely correlated | +7.81% | ||
| MPC - PBF | 73% Closely correlated | +4.63% | ||
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VLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VLO has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VLO jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLO | 100% | +5.38% | ||
| MPC - VLO | 87% Closely correlated | +4.63% | ||
| PSX - VLO | 82% Closely correlated | +5.27% | ||
| DINO - VLO | 78% Closely correlated | +4.65% | ||
| PBF - VLO | 77% Closely correlated | +8.01% | ||
| PARR - VLO | 73% Closely correlated | +7.81% | ||
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