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MTSI vs SMTC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) vs. Semtech Corporation (SMTC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MTSI and SMTC are both semiconductor companies benefiting from AI-driven demand in data centers and connectivity, with strong year-to-date gains exceeding 110% for each as of late May 2026.
- MTSI reported robust fiscal Q2 results in early May, including an earnings beat and raised outlook, contributing to its larger market capitalization of approximately $29.4 billion compared to SMTC's $14.6 billion.
- Recent market activity shows SMTC achieving new 52-week highs amid momentum ahead of earnings, while MTSI demonstrated consistent execution with superior adjusted earnings per share margins.
- Both stocks exhibit high beta to the semiconductor sector, with exposure to wireless, wireline, and IoT applications, though MTSI has greater emphasis on defense and RF/microwave solutions.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs: MTSI offers stronger earnings quality and backlog visibility, while SMTC provides diversified IoT growth and recent price momentum.
- Sentiment remains constructive for both amid broader AI infrastructure spending, with limited differentiation in risk factors such as supply chain dependencies.
Introduction
This comparison examines MTSI and SMTC, two semiconductor firms operating in analog and mixed-signal technologies. The analysis focuses on their business models, recent stock behavior, and market positioning to assist experienced investors evaluating sector exposure and newer traders seeking context on relative performance within the semiconductor industry. Both companies serve overlapping end markets including data centers, wireless infrastructure, and industrial applications, making the pair relevant for assessing growth drivers and risk factors in the current environment.
MTSI Overview and Recent Performance
MTSI, or MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., provides analog semiconductor solutions for wireless and wireline applications across radio frequency, microwave, and lightwave spectrum. The company targets carrier infrastructure, industrial and defense markets, and data centers. In recent market activity, MTSI delivered strong fiscal second-quarter results with an adjusted earnings beat and raised guidance, supporting continued upward momentum. Year-to-date returns have reached approximately 125%, reflecting investor confidence in its execution and backlog in high-growth segments. Sentiment has been bolstered by analyst price target increases and robust demand from hyperscale and defense customers.
SMTC Overview and Recent Performance
SMTC, or Semtech Corporation, develops semiconductor, Internet of Things systems, and cloud connectivity solutions. Its portfolio addresses analog and mixed-signal needs in IoT, wireless, and data center applications. Recent market activity has featured notable price appreciation, including new 52-week highs, driven by positioning ahead of earnings and broader AI-related spending. Year-to-date performance stands near 113%, with revenue growth in the low double digits year-over-year. Sentiment reflects optimism around IoT diversification and connectivity demand, tempered by typical sector volatility and upcoming quarterly results.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
MTSI and SMTC share semiconductor exposure but differ in focus: MTSI emphasizes RF/microwave and defense applications with stronger recent earnings margins, while SMTC leans toward IoT and connectivity with broader revenue diversification. Growth drivers for MTSI include data center and 5G/6G infrastructure, yielding higher adjusted EPS; SMTC benefits from cloud and industrial IoT tailwinds with solid but comparatively slower year-over-year revenue expansion. Recent momentum favors both amid AI capital expenditures, though MTSI shows greater consistency in beats and a larger market capitalization. Risk factors such as supply chain constraints and cyclical demand affect each similarly, with SMTC exhibiting slightly higher historical volatility. Market sentiment positions MTSI for stability in premium segments and SMTC for upside in emerging IoT use cases.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, earnings quality, and relative positioning in AI-related segments, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probabilistic favorability to MTSI over the near term. This assessment draws from stronger recent execution metrics and backlog visibility compared to SMTC’s solid but more variable growth profile. Outcomes remain subject to evolving market conditions and sector dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTSI is a Buy and SMTC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTSI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileSMTC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTSI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SMTC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTSI’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SMTC’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTSI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SMTC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MTSI (@Semiconductors) experienced а +1.04% price change this week, while SMTC (@Semiconductors) price change was +1.05% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -0.06%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.25%, and the average quarterly price growth was +92.80%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTSI is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
SMTC is expected to report earnings on Sep 02, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (-0.06% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| MTSI | SMTC | MTSI / SMTC | |
| Capitalization | 28.4B | 15.2B | 187% |
| EBITDA | 276M | 32M | 863% |
| Gain YTD | 117.276 | 121.577 | 96% |
| P/E Ratio | 168.62 | 130.81 | 129% |
| Revenue | 1.07B | 1.09B | 99% |
| Total Cash | 665M | 163M | 408% |
| Total Debt | 377M | 492M | 77% |
MTSI | SMTC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 87 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 86 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 3 | 39 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 94 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 35 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTSI's Valuation (84) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as SMTC (86). This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to SMTC’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SMTC (39). This means that MTSI’s stock grew somewhat faster than SMTC’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's SMR Rating (62) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as SMTC (94). This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to SMTC’s over the last 12 months.
SMTC's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MTSI (36). This means that SMTC’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as SMTC (24). This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to SMTC’s over the last 12 months.
| MTSI | SMTC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 69% | 7 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 85% |
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MTSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTSI has been closely correlated with KLAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTSI jumps, then KLAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSI | 100% | -6.08% | ||
| KLAC - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | -9.17% | ||
| LRCX - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | -9.33% | ||
| VECO - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | -3.38% | ||
| AMKR - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | -7.30% | ||
| AMAT - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | -8.48% | ||
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SMTC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SMTC has been loosely correlated with MXL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SMTC jumps, then MXL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SMTC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMTC | 100% | -6.55% | ||
| MXL - SMTC | 62% Loosely correlated | -7.63% | ||
| MTSI - SMTC | 62% Loosely correlated | -6.08% | ||
| MPWR - SMTC | 58% Loosely correlated | -7.42% | ||
| TSEM - SMTC | 56% Loosely correlated | -10.76% | ||
| AMBA - SMTC | 56% Loosely correlated | -7.40% | ||
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