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MTSI vs SMTC
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) vs Semtech (SMTC) Earnings Recap: Recent Results Signal Semiconductor Strength
Key Takeaways
- Both MTSI and SMTC delivered strong recent quarterly results, with revenue growth exceeding 20% year-over-year in their respective periods.
- SMTC reported Q4 FY2026 revenue of $274.4 million on March 16, 2026, up 9% YoY, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.44.
- MTSI posted Q1 FY2026 revenue of $271.6 million on February 5, 2026, surging 24.5% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $1.02.
- Full-year FY2026 for SMTC reached a record $1.05 billion, up 15% YoY, highlighting sustained demand in data centers and IoT.
- Both companies guide for sequential growth in the current quarter, driven by infrastructure and defense sectors.
- MTSI shows superior EPS growth and margins, positioning it favorably in high-performance analog semis.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Both MTSI (MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.) and SMTC (Semtech Corporation) operate in the analog and mixed-signal semiconductor space, targeting overlapping markets like data centers, telecommunications, industrial, defense, and IoT connectivity. Recent earnings releases provide fresh insights into their execution amid booming demand for high-speed networking, 5G/6G infrastructure, and edge computing. Comparing their results highlights relative strengths in revenue acceleration, profitability, and growth drivers, helping investors gauge competitive positioning in a sector critical to AI and wireless expansion.
Semtech (SMTC) Focus
Semtech released its Q4 and full-year FY2026 earnings on March 16, 2026, for the quarter ended January 25, 2026. Net sales hit $274.4 million, up 9% year-over-year and 3% sequentially, beating expectations. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.44, topping the $0.43 consensus. GAAP gross margin was 50.4%, with non-GAAP at 51.6%. Full-year revenue reached a record $1.05 billion, a 15% increase, fueled by data center networking and LoRa IoT platforms. Non-GAAP EPS for the year rose 94% to $1.71. Management cited strong infrastructure sales ($86.3 million in Q4) and strategic acquisitions as key tailwinds. For Q1 FY2027, Semtech guides revenue to $283 million (±$5 million), implying 13% YoY growth.
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Context
MACOM reported Q1 FY2026 results on February 5, 2026, for the quarter ended January 2, 2026. Revenue climbed to $271.6 million, a robust 24.5% YoY gain from $218.1 million and 4% above the prior quarter's $261.2 million. GAAP net income was $48.8 million or $0.64 per diluted share; adjusted EPS hit a record $1.02, up from $0.79 YoY. Growth spanned telecom, data centers (raised FY outlook to 35-40%), and industrial/defense. Book-to-bill exceeded 1.3x, with $768 million in cash. Q2 FY2026 guidance calls for $281-289 million in revenue and adjusted EPS of $1.05-$1.09.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Recent quarters show parallel revenue scales around $272 million, but MTSI edges out with faster 24.5% YoY growth versus SMTC's 9%. MTSI's adjusted EPS of $1.02 dwarfs SMTC's $0.44, reflecting superior margins and scale in RF/microwave solutions for defense and hyperscalers. SMTC counters with diversified IoT strength and full-year scale at $1.05 billion. Both face supply chain risks but benefit from AI-driven data center demand; MTSI shows lower execution risk via consistent beats and robust backlog. Sentiment favors MTSI for growth stability.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI favors MTSI with 65% probability over the next quarter, citing superior earnings quality (record EPS, 24.5% revenue growth), trend strength in data centers/defense, and healthier balance sheet stability versus SMTC's solid but slower YoY metrics.
Disclaimer
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To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTSI is a Hold and SMTC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTSI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSMTC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTSI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SMTC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTSI’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SMTC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTSI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SMTC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MTSI (@Semiconductors) experienced а +7.31% price change this week, while SMTC (@Semiconductors) price change was +26.39% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +11.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTSI is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
SMTC is expected to report earnings on Jun 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+11.63% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| MTSI | SMTC | MTSI / SMTC | |
| Capitalization | 20.8B | 10B | 208% |
| EBITDA | 259M | 39.5M | 656% |
| Gain YTD | 61.706 | 46.166 | 134% |
| P/E Ratio | 125.33 | 130.81 | 96% |
| Revenue | 1.02B | 1.05B | 97% |
| Total Cash | 768M | 195M | 394% |
| Total Debt | 531M | 497M | 107% |
MTSI | SMTC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 35 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 72 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 92 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 35 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTSI's Valuation (83) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as SMTC (84). This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to SMTC’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SMTC (72). This means that MTSI’s stock grew somewhat faster than SMTC’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's SMR Rating (59) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SMTC (92). This means that MTSI’s stock grew somewhat faster than SMTC’s over the last 12 months.
SMTC's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MTSI (36). This means that SMTC’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
SMTC's P/E Growth Rating (28) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MTSI (44). This means that SMTC’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
| MTSI | SMTC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 70% | 21 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 72% |
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MTSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTSI has been closely correlated with KLAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTSI jumps, then KLAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSI | 100% | +5.95% | ||
| KLAC - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| LRCX - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| SITM - MTSI | 69% Closely correlated | +7.03% | ||
| VECO - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
| AMKR - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +7.11% | ||
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SMTC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SMTC has been closely correlated with MTSI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SMTC jumps, then MTSI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SMTC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMTC | 100% | +5.14% | ||
| MTSI - SMTC | 66% Closely correlated | +5.95% | ||
| MPWR - SMTC | 65% Loosely correlated | +4.67% | ||
| MXL - SMTC | 62% Loosely correlated | +12.51% | ||
| NXPI - SMTC | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.08% | ||
| TSEM - SMTC | 56% Loosely correlated | +5.45% | ||
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