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NBTB vs RBCAA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) vs. Republic Bancorp Inc. (RBCAA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NBT Bancorp (NBTB) and Republic Bancorp (RBCAA) are both well-capitalized regional banks, but they pursue different growth playbooks and market footprints.
- NBT Bancorp is scaling through an acquisition (Evans Bancorp), while Republic Bancorp is leaning on diversified, fee-driven specialty lending lines.
- Republic Bancorp posted record full-year net income, yet its latest quarterly EPS missed consensus estimates; NBT Bancorp delivered a positive earnings surprise in its most recent quarter.
- Republic Bancorp carries a lower price-to-earnings multiple, while NBT Bancorp trades at a richer valuation supported by stronger merger-driven balance-sheet growth.
- Relative momentum and trend consistency currently diverge, giving an AI-based ranking a clear but probabilistic basis for favoring one name.
Introduction
Regional banks often look similar at a glance, but their underlying business models can differ sharply. NBTB, the parent of NBT Bank, and RBCAA, the parent of Republic Bank & Trust, both operate in the United States and share exposure to the same interest-rate environment and credit cycle. Yet their growth drivers, geographic reach, and revenue mix are distinct. For traders and investors evaluating the banking sector, this stock comparison clarifies where each institution stands on growth, profitability, and risk. The analysis below reviews recent performance, relative market positioning, and the observable factors an AI model would weigh when ranking the two names.
NBTB Overview and Recent Performance
NBT Bancorp Inc. is a financial holding company headquartered in Norwich, New York, operating NBT Bank across the northeastern United States with a full range of commercial and retail banking, wealth management, and retirement plan administration services. In recent weeks, its reported results have reflected the integration of Evans Bancorp, which was acquired to expand its footprint in western New York.
The most recent quarterly report showed net interest income rising sharply year over year, supported by the acquisition and organic earning-asset growth. Earnings per share came in ahead of consensus estimates, and management highlighted a stronger net interest margin (NIM, the spread between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits) versus the prior-year period. The board also declared a higher quarterly dividend, marking a thirteenth consecutive annual increase, and the company continued share repurchases. Key watch points include commercial real estate loan payoffs and competitive pressure on new commercial loan spreads, which could temper near-term loan growth.
RBCAA Overview and Recent Performance
Republic Bancorp, Inc. is a Louisville, Kentucky-based holding company whose subsidiary, Republic Bank & Trust, operates banking centers across five states and runs several national specialty lending and processing businesses, including warehouse lending, tax refund solutions, and payment solutions. Its diversified, fee-generating model sets it apart from a conventional community bank.
In its most recent quarter, Republic reported record full-year net income and diluted earnings per share for its Class A shares, supported by growth across all reporting segments. Total stockholders' equity crossed the $1 billion milestone. However, the latest quarterly EPS figure fell short of consensus expectations, even as revenue and net interest income exceeded estimates. The company also announced the sale of its St. Louis-based Republic Bank Finance operations, a capital-accretive divestiture expected to record a gain and free capital for other lending. These mixed signals—strong annual results paired with a quarterly EPS miss—have shaped sentiment in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two banks diverge most clearly on business model and growth strategy. NBT Bancorp is a traditional commercial and community bank whose recent growth has been acquisition-led, expanding its loan and deposit base through the Evans transaction while maintaining a disciplined credit culture. Republic Bancorp, by contrast, blends a core banking franchise with higher-margin specialty businesses—such as tax refund solutions, warehouse lending, and aircraft lending—that reduce reliance on plain-vanilla lending spreads.
On recent momentum, NBT Bancorp has benefited from merger-driven revenue gains and a consistent earnings-beat pattern, while Republic Bancorp's record annual results were tempered by a quarterly EPS miss and a heavier net charge-off (a loan written off as uncollectible) figure. Valuation also differs: Republic trades at a lower trailing price-to-earnings ratio, whereas NBT commands a premium that reflects acquisition growth and capital-return consistency.
Risk profiles vary as well. NBT faces integration risk and commercial real estate concentration, while Republic carries seasonal volatility tied to its tax-related processing segment and credit cyclicality in its specialty lending lines. Both maintain strong capital positions, but their sector exposure and sensitivity to interest-rate changes are not identical.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward NBTB in the current environment, though with a probabilistic rather than definitive stance. NBT Bancorp's trend consistency is currently more favorable: it has sustained a positive earnings-surprise pattern, demonstrated balance-sheet growth from the Evans acquisition, and reinforced shareholder returns through a thirteenth consecutive dividend increase. Those elements support steadier momentum signals. Republic Bancorp's record profitability and diversified model are notable strengths, but the recent EPS miss and a larger net charge-off introduce near-term uncertainty that AI trend models tend to penalize. This does not imply RBCAA is a weaker business, only that its current relative positioning, momentum, and catalyst profile appear less aligned with the factors a momentum-oriented AI ranking emphasizes. The assessment could shift as new earnings and credit data emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NBTB is a StrongBuy and RBCAA is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for NBTB turns positive, indicating new upward trend
NBTB saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 79 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 54 of the 79 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NBTB just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where NBTB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
NBTB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NBTB advanced for three days, in 176 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NBTB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
NBTB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NBTB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 57 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.411) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (12.782) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.190) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.658) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
RBCAA's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RBCAA turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where RBCAA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 64 cases where RBCAA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +1.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RBCAA advanced for three days, in 167 of 287 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
RBCAA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for RBCAA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 42%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RBCAA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for RBCAA entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RBCAA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.565) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (14.055) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.290) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.630) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
NBTB | RBCAA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 7 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 57 Fair valued | 89 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NBTB's Valuation (57) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RBCAA (89). This means that NBTB’s stock grew similarly to RBCAA’s over the last 12 months.
RBCAA's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as NBTB (32). This means that RBCAA’s stock grew similarly to NBTB’s over the last 12 months.
NBTB's SMR Rating (16) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RBCAA (20). This means that NBTB’s stock grew similarly to RBCAA’s over the last 12 months.
NBTB's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RBCAA (44). This means that NBTB’s stock grew similarly to RBCAA’s over the last 12 months.
RBCAA's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NBTB (57). This means that RBCAA’s stock grew somewhat faster than NBTB’s over the last 12 months.
| NBTB | RBCAA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 58% | 7 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 56% | 9 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NBTB’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while RBCAA’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- NBTB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- RBCAA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NBTB’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RBCAA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NBTB’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RBCAA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
NBTB (@Regional Banks) experienced а +4.10% price change this week, while RBCAA (@Regional Banks) price change was +0.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
NBTB is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
RBCAA is expected to report earnings on Oct 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.71% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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NBTB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NBTB has been closely correlated with FCF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NBTB jumps, then FCF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NBTB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBTB | 100% | +2.60% | ||
| FCF - NBTB | 86% Closely correlated | +2.63% | ||
| SRCE - NBTB | 84% Closely correlated | +1.60% | ||
| UBSI - NBTB | 84% Closely correlated | +2.71% | ||
| NWBI - NBTB | 84% Closely correlated | +2.56% | ||
| FRME - NBTB | 84% Closely correlated | +2.18% | ||
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RBCAA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RBCAA has been closely correlated with PEBO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RBCAA jumps, then PEBO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RBCAA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBCAA | 100% | +1.67% | ||
| PEBO - RBCAA | 79% Closely correlated | +2.30% | ||
| SRCE - RBCAA | 78% Closely correlated | +1.60% | ||
| HTB - RBCAA | 78% Closely correlated | +1.60% | ||
| NBTB - RBCAA | 78% Closely correlated | +2.60% | ||
| PFIS - RBCAA | 77% Closely correlated | +3.13% | ||
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