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RBCAA vs SRCE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Republic Bancorp (RBCAA) vs. 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both RBCAA and SRCE are well-capitalized Midwest regional banks that posted record or near-record earnings in 2025 and carried momentum into 2026.
- Republic Bancorp trades at a modestly higher valuation multiple but has a more diversified fee-based business, including warehouse lending and tax refund solutions.
- 1st Source Corporation delivered a larger recent earnings surprise, with second-quarter EPS (earnings per share) beating consensus by roughly 14%.
- Analyst sentiment has brightened for both names, though SRCE has seen more active price-target increases in recent weeks.
- Relative performance is closely matched, with both stocks delivering strong year-to-date gains while consolidating below their 52-week highs.
Introduction
Regional banks have been a focal point for investors navigating an evolving interest-rate and credit environment, and two Midwest institutions stand out for their consistent execution: Republic Bancorp, Inc. (RBCAA) of Louisville, Kentucky, and 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) of South Bend, Indiana. This stock comparison examines their business models, recent performance, and market positioning to help traders and investors assess which name offers a more compelling risk-reward profile. Both companies share a community-banking heritage, fortress-like balance sheets, and disciplined capital returns, yet their growth drivers and risk profiles differ in meaningful ways.
RBCAA Overview and Recent Performance
Republic Bancorp, Inc. is the parent company of Republic Bank & Trust Company, operating 47 banking centers across five states with a headquarters in Louisville, Kentucky. The company is more diversified than a typical community bank, running five reportable segments: Traditional Banking, Warehouse Lending, Tax Refund Solutions, Republic Payment Solutions, and Republic Credit Solutions. This mix of national specialty lending and fee-based businesses has supported above-peer returns.
In recent market activity, RBCAA shares have consolidated in the low-$90s after touching a 52-week high near $102, following a multi-month rally. The company reported its strongest second-quarter results in its history, driven by core bank net interest income expansion and a favorable shift in loan mix that produced a net credit to its loan-loss provision. A higher-yielding redeployment of excess liquidity into loans and securities has supported its net interest margin (the spread between interest earned and interest paid). Management has emphasized disciplined growth and cost control, and the company earned its second consecutive Raymond James Community Bankers Cup.
SRCE Overview and Recent Performance
1st Source Corporation is the holding company for 1st Source Bank, providing commercial and consumer banking, trust and wealth advisory services, and insurance products, primarily across Indiana and Michigan. The company completed a leadership transition in late 2025 when Andrea Short became CEO, a succession management described as clean and successful.
In recent weeks, SRCE has traded in the mid-$80s, below its 52-week high near $91 but up strongly on a year-to-date basis. Its latest quarterly earnings beat analyst expectations by a wide margin, with EPS of $1.95 versus a consensus estimate of $1.71, reflecting disciplined loan and deposit pricing, expense management, and momentum in commercial lending, including renewable-energy lines of business. Several analysts raised price targets following the report, including Piper Sandler to $100. The company has also leaned on share repurchases and a higher dividend, with 2025 net income rising nearly 20% to $158 million.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both are Midwest regional banks with strong capital and consistent earnings, their models diverge. Republic Bancorp's diversification into warehouse lending, tax refund solutions, and payment products creates multiple revenue streams beyond traditional banking, which can smooth results but also adds operational complexity and seasonal variability. 1st Source is a more traditional community and commercial lender, augmented by wealth advisory and insurance services, offering a simpler, steadier earnings profile tied closely to loan growth and credit quality.
On valuation, the stocks are closely matched: both trade in a price-to-earnings (P/E) range of roughly 12 to 14 times trailing earnings and yield around 2%. SRCE has shown a somewhat lower P/E while RBCAA carries a slightly richer multiple, partly reflecting its specialty-business growth. Risk factors differ as well, with RBCAA exposed to seasonal tax-refund credit and national warehouse lending, whereas SRCE's risk centers on commercial real estate and agricultural lending in its regional footprint. Market sentiment has turned cautiously optimistic on both, though SRCE has seen more frequent and higher analyst price-target increases recently.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward SRCE in the current environment, though the margin is not overwhelming. The company's larger earnings beat, accelerating EPS growth, active share repurchases, and a recent cluster of analyst price-target increases suggest stronger near-term catalysts and trend consistency. That said, RBCAA offers a more diversified earnings base and disciplined capital management that may appeal to investors prioritizing stability across rate cycles. The relative positioning of these two names remains close, and the AI's preference would depend on whether the weighting favors momentum and catalysts or diversification and defensive consistency.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is RBCAA is a Buy and SRCE is a Buy.
RBCAA's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RBCAA turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where RBCAA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RBCAA as a result. In 47 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +0.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RBCAA advanced for three days, in 162 of 283 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
RBCAA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 139 of 240 cases where RBCAA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RBCAA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RBCAA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.543) is normal, around the industry mean (1.262). P/E Ratio (13.858) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.290) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.630) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
SRCE's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SRCE turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where SRCE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 64 cases where SRCE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SRCE as a result. In 48 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
SRCE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SRCE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +0.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SRCE advanced for three days, in 173 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 103 of 248 cases where SRCE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 42%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SRCE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SRCE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.598) is normal, around the industry mean (1.262). P/E Ratio (12.473) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.380) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.617) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
RBCAA | SRCE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 87 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SRCE's Valuation (80) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RBCAA (89). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to RBCAA’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RBCAA (9). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to RBCAA’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's SMR Rating (19) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RBCAA (20). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to RBCAA’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as RBCAA (45). This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to RBCAA’s over the last 12 months.
RBCAA's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SRCE (19). This means that RBCAA’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
| RBCAA | SRCE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 19 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 56% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 42% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
RBCAA’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while SRCE’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- RBCAA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- SRCE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
RBCAA’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SRCE’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- RBCAA’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 1 bearish.
- SRCE’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 1 bearish.
Price Growth
RBCAA (@Regional Banks) experienced а +0.37% price change this week, while SRCE (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.37% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.00%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.77%.
Reported Earning Dates
RBCAA is expected to report earnings on Jan 22, 2027.
SRCE is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.00% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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RBCAA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RBCAA has been closely correlated with SRCE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RBCAA jumps, then SRCE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RBCAA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBCAA | 100% | +0.02% | ||
| SRCE - RBCAA | 82% Closely correlated | -0.14% | ||
| NBTB - RBCAA | 80% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
| PFIS - RBCAA | 80% Closely correlated | -0.22% | ||
| SMBC - RBCAA | 80% Closely correlated | +0.40% | ||
| FMBH - RBCAA | 79% Closely correlated | +0.25% | ||
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SRCE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SRCE has been closely correlated with CAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SRCE jumps, then CAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SRCE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SRCE | 100% | -0.14% | ||
| CAC - SRCE | 87% Closely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| THFF - SRCE | 87% Closely correlated | +0.27% | ||
| FMBH - SRCE | 86% Closely correlated | +0.25% | ||
| NBTB - SRCE | 86% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
| NWBI - SRCE | 86% Closely correlated | -0.07% | ||
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