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NXPI vs ON
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) vs. ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on relative momentum, catalysts, and trend consistency, the AI framework currently favors ON over NXPI.
- NXPI is the larger, higher-margin operator with deep automotive exposure, while ON is riding an accelerating AI data center power cycle.
- ON delivered beat-and-raise results, whereas NXPI beat on the quarter but issued fourth-quarter guidance modestly below consensus.
- ON has shown stronger year-to-date relative performance, supported by triple-digit AI data center revenue growth.
- Explore NXPI Major News and NXPI Today's Price Move, as well as ON Major News and ON Today's Price Move, for the latest updates on each stock.
- To see how AI-powered trading systems are positioning across these and other tickers, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Semiconductor stocks sit at the center of two of the market's most important themes: the electrification of vehicles and the build-out of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. NXPI (NXP Semiconductors) and ON (onsemi) both operate in this space, yet they reflect different bets on where chip demand is heading. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing a diversified automotive and industrial franchise against a more specialized power-semiconductor play with fast-growing AI data center exposure. Understanding their relative performance and market positioning can clarify which profile aligns with a given risk and growth preference.
NXPI Overview and Recent Performance
NXP Semiconductors is a leading supplier of high-performance mixed-signal products, with substantial market share in automotive microcontrollers and analog chips used across clusters, powertrains, infotainment, and radar. In recent weeks, NXPI reported third-quarter revenue of roughly $3.79 billion, up 19% year over year and ahead of analyst expectations, while non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings per share rose 35% to $4.20. Automotive revenue crossed the $2 billion mark for the first time, driven by content gains in software-defined vehicles even amid flattish vehicle production.
Sentiment has been mixed, however. Management's fourth-quarter revenue midpoint of about $3.85 billion came in marginally below consensus, a shortfall of roughly $20 million that triggered a post-earnings selloff before the stock recovered later in the week. The company also authorized an additional $5 billion in buybacks, bringing its total authorization to about $6.3 billion. Data center revenue is expected to exceed $500 million this year, with a path toward $1 billion within a couple of years.
ON Overview and Recent Performance
ON Semiconductor, branded as onsemi, delivers intelligent power and sensing technologies for automotive, industrial, and AI data center markets, with a particular focus on silicon carbide and power efficiency. In recent weeks, ON reported third-quarter revenue of about $1.72 billion, up 11% year over year and slightly above consensus, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.90 also beating estimates. Its AI data center business stood out, growing roughly 175% year over year and 39% sequentially as demand for power management and efficient power conversion accelerated.
Unlike its peer, ON raised its outlook above consensus, guiding fourth-quarter revenue toward $1.77 billion. Management has emphasized a "beat-and-raise" trajectory supported by tighter supply, extended lead times, and higher factory utilization. The company also authorized a substantial buyback program and continues to expand its gallium nitride (GaN) product lines. Despite the positive results, shares slipped after the report, reflecting elevated expectations after strong year-to-date gains.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge in business model and growth drivers. NXPI is heavily weighted toward automotive and industrial markets, generating higher operating margins (around 37% non-GAAP in the latest quarter) and returning capital through both dividends and buybacks. Its growth narrative leans on software-defined vehicles, edge AI, and a rising data center contribution.
ON is more concentrated in power semiconductors, where AI data center demand is its fastest-growing vector. Its margins are lower but improving as utilization rises, and it has been more aggressive in portfolio reshaping, including a planned Synaptics acquisition and new GaN manufacturing partnerships. On momentum, ON has outpaced NXPI year to date, while NXPI offers a steadier, more diversified earnings base with a dividend yield. Risk profiles differ as well: NXPI is tied to the auto cycle, while ON carries exposure to AI infrastructure spending and supply-chain dynamics.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, catalyst strength, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI framework currently leans toward ON. The combination of beat-and-raise guidance, triple-digit AI data center revenue growth, and stronger year-to-date relative performance suggests a more favorable momentum and catalyst profile than NXPI, whose modest guidance shortfall has tempered near-term sentiment despite solid underlying fundamentals. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive; NXPI retains advantages in scale, margins, and diversification. Traders should interpret this verdict as a data-driven signal on current positioning, not a guarantee of future performance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NXPI is a Buy and ON is a Hold.
NXPI's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NXPI turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where NXPI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NXPI as a result. In 71 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
NXPI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NXPI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +5.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NXPI advanced for three days, in 190 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 146 of 217 cases where NXPI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NXPI moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 22 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NXPI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
NXPI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NXPI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 58 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.493) is normal, around the industry mean (5.443). P/E Ratio (21.059) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.640). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.470) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.219) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ON's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for ON moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 20 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 17 of the 20 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ON just turned positive on November 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where ON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 47 of 60 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +5.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ON advanced for three days, in 220 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
ON may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ON as a result. In 86 of 98 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
ON moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ON crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
The Aroon Indicator for ON entered a downward trend on November 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ON’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.414) is normal, around the industry mean (5.443). P/E Ratio (41.110) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.640). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.169) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.337) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
NXPI | ON | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 58 Fair valued | 66 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 74 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 76 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 84 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NXPI's Valuation (58) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ON (66). This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to ON’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's Profit vs Risk Rating (56) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ON (74). This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to ON’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's SMR Rating (35) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (76). This means that NXPI’s stock grew somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ON (58). This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to ON’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's P/E Growth Rating (64) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ON (84). This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to ON’s over the last 12 months.
| NXPI | ON | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 88% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 10 days ago 79% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NXPI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while ON’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- NXPI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ON’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NXPI’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ON’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NXPI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ON’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
NXPI (@Semiconductors) experienced а +6.77% price change this week, while ON (@Semiconductors) price change was +12.24% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +6.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.65%, and the average quarterly price growth was -29.58%.
Reported Earning Dates
NXPI is expected to report earnings on Feb 01, 2027.
ON is expected to report earnings on Feb 08, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+6.60% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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NXPI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NXPI has been closely correlated with ENTG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NXPI jumps, then ENTG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NXPI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXPI | 100% | -0.82% | ||
| ENTG - NXPI | 78% Closely correlated | -3.79% | ||
| LRCX - NXPI | 77% Closely correlated | -3.36% | ||
| MCHP - NXPI | 77% Closely correlated | -0.64% | ||
| MCHPP - NXPI | 76% Closely correlated | -0.75% | ||
| KLAC - NXPI | 76% Closely correlated | -3.17% | ||
More | ||||
ON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ON has been closely correlated with ADI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ON jumps, then ADI could also see price increases.