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NXPI vs ON
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) vs. ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both NXPI and ON are semiconductor leaders riding an AI-driven data center power wave, but they play different roles in that trend.
- NXPI has shown stronger top-line momentum, with recent quarterly revenue growth near 19% year over year and expanding gross margins around 58%.
- ON is in an earlier-stage cyclical recovery, with more modest revenue growth but rapidly accelerating AI data center sales expected to more than double in 2026.
- NXPI skews toward automotive and industrial processing, while ON is concentrated in intelligent power and sensing, including silicon carbide (SiC) technology.
- Both companies carry meaningful exposure to the automotive cycle, China demand, and semiconductor inventory swings.
Introduction
NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ: NXPI) and ON Semiconductor, now branded as onsemi (NASDAQ: ON), are two of the most closely watched names in the analog, power, and automotive semiconductor complex. Both are pivoting toward artificial intelligence infrastructure, and both are sensitive to the same macro forces: automotive unit volumes, industrial capital spending, and the pace of data center buildouts. This stock comparison is particularly relevant for investors seeking to understand relative performance and market positioning between a diversified processing franchise and a power-centric recovery story. The two companies trade at different stages of their earnings cycles, which makes their contrast instructive for both growth-oriented traders and value-conscious, longer-horizon investors.
NXPI Overview and Recent Performance
NXP Semiconductors is a Dutch-American chipmaker focused on automotive, industrial and Internet of Things (IoT), mobile, and communications infrastructure processing. Its portfolio centers on microcontrollers, processors, and connectivity and security solutions rather than the high-performance compute chips that dominate AI headlines. In recent weeks, sentiment around NXPI has strengthened meaningfully. The company delivered a "beat-and-raise" quarter, with revenue up roughly 19% year over year to about $3.5 billion and non-GAAP gross margin expanding to approximately 58%. Management guided above consensus and pointed to accelerating adoption of software-defined vehicle platforms and physical AI applications.
A key catalyst has been NXP's positioning in the data center "control plane" — power, cooling, uptime, and security — rather than the compute plane. The company expects data center revenue to more than double in 2026, moving from roughly $200 million toward $500 million. This narrative, combined with broad-based end-market improvement, drove a sharp re-rating in the stock in recent weeks, with several sell-side analysts raising price targets.
ON Overview and Recent Performance
ON Semiconductor, or onsemi, delivers intelligent power and sensing technologies for automotive, industrial, and AI data center markets. Its portfolio spans silicon carbide (SiC), power modules, analog and mixed-signal chips, and intelligent sensing. Unlike NXPI, onsemi's recent trajectory reflects an earlier-stage recovery. Revenue has grown more modestly — up roughly 5% year over year in the first quarter and around 9% in the second quarter, reaching about $1.6 billion — while non-GAAP gross margin has rebuilt sequentially toward the high-30% range.
Recent market activity has focused on onsemi's AI data center inflection point. Management has described AI data center revenue as growing more than 30% sequentially, with expectations to more than double year over year in 2026. Automotive, still the company's largest end market, has returned to year-over-year growth after a prolonged decline, supported by expanding silicon carbide content and China electric vehicle (EV) share gains. Analysts have raised price targets as the company emerges from what one firm called a multi-year "L-shaped" recovery, though questions about silicon carbide overcapacity and competition persist.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two names lies in scale, margin profile, and cycle positioning. NXPI is the larger, more diversified business, generating non-GAAP gross margins around 58% versus onsemi's high-30% range. That reflects NXP's heavier mix of higher-value processing and connectivity content versus onsemi's capital-intensive power and silicon carbide footprint.
Growth drivers also diverge. NXP's story is increasingly tied to content growth — more chips per vehicle and a rising data center control-plane franchise — while onsemi's narrative hinges on power conversion for AI servers and electrification, areas where competition from rivals such as Infineon is intense. In terms of momentum, NXPI has displayed stronger recent top-line acceleration, while ON is rebounding from a lower base with faster sequential improvement in AI-related revenue. Both carry shared risks: automotive inventory resets in China, uneven industrial demand, and semiconductor cyclicality. Sector exposure overlaps heavily in automotive but differs in industrial IoT (NXP) versus power and sensing (onsemi).
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward NXPI at present. The stock exhibits a more consistent uptrend, superior margin structure, broader end-market diversification, and stronger recent revenue acceleration, all of which tend to favor trend-following and stability-oriented models. ON offers compelling momentum in AI data center power and a genuine inflection in its earnings cycle, but its lower margins, earlier-stage recovery, and competitive pressure in silicon carbide introduce more variability. Accordingly, the AI signal would likely assign a higher probability of near-term outperformance to NXPI, while still recognizing onsemi's stronger relative momentum potential in a sustained data center power upcycle.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NXPI is a StrongBuy and ON is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for NXPI turns positive, indicating new upward trend
NXPI saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 94 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 68 of the 94 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NXPI just turned positive on October 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where NXPI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
NXPI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NXPI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +5.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NXPI advanced for three days, in 192 of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 134 of 217 cases where NXPI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NXPI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
NXPI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 55 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.197) is normal, around the industry mean (6.017). P/E Ratio (19.925) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.775). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.470) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.219) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NXPI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NXPI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
Aroon Indicator for ON shows an upward move is likely
ON's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 15, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 233 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 177 of the 233 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 48 of 65 cases where ON's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +5.22% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ON advanced for three days, in 223 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ON moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 75%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ON as a result. In 82 of 98 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ON turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 60 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 49 of the 60 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 82%.
ON moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ON crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The 50-day moving average for ON moved below the 200-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
ON broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ON’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.897) is normal, around the industry mean (6.017). P/E Ratio (46.916) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.775). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.169) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.337) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
NXPI | ON | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 86 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 55 Fair valued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 79 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 76 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NXPI's Valuation (55) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ON (67). This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to ON’s over the last 12 months.
ON's Profit vs Risk Rating (79) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NXPI (80). This means that ON’s stock grew similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's SMR Rating (35) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (76). This means that NXPI’s stock grew somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ON (58). This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to ON’s over the last 12 months.
ON's P/E Growth Rating (48) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NXPI (71). This means that ON’s stock grew similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
| NXPI | ON | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 79% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NXPI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while ON’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- NXPI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ON’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NXPI’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ON’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NXPI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- ON’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 8 bearish.
Price Growth
NXPI (@Semiconductors) experienced а +2.44% price change this week, while ON (@Semiconductors) price change was +0.32% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -3.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.79%.
Reported Earning Dates
NXPI is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
ON is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (-3.52% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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