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NXRT vs PINE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NexPoint Residential Trust (NXRT) vs. Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different real estate niches: NXRT owns value-add multifamily apartments, while PINE focuses on single-tenant net-lease retail and commercial loan investments.
- Momentum favors PINE: PINE has delivered positive year-to-date returns and consecutive dividend increases, whereas NXRT has underperformed amid soft same-store results.
- Earnings trajectories diverge: PINE has been raising guidance and growing FFO, while NXRT recently lowered its full-year outlook on higher interest expenses.
- Income profiles differ: PINE offers a higher current dividend yield with a lower payout ratio, while NXRT trades at a steep discount to its estimated net asset value.
- Risk exposure is contrasting: NXRT is sensitive to multifamily rent trends and floating-rate debt, while PINE is exposed to tenant credit quality and retail-sector concentration.
- AI signal: Based on observable trend consistency and catalysts, algorithmic models currently appear more constructive on PINE.
Introduction
Investors weighing two real estate investment trusts (REITs — companies that own and operate income-producing property) may find NXRT and PINE a useful pairing for a stock comparison. Although both names sit within the same broad sector, they operate in very different corners of real estate and have posted markedly different relative performance in recent months. NexPoint Residential Trust concentrates on value-add multifamily apartments across the Sun Belt, while Alpine Income Property Trust owns single-tenant net-lease retail properties plus a growing commercial loan book. This contrast in business model, momentum, and market positioning makes the comparison relevant for income-focused investors and traders evaluating where current market conditions are favoring one strategy over the other.
NXRT Overview and Recent Performance
NXRT, or NexPoint Residential Trust, is an externally advised REIT that acquires and operates well-located, middle-income multifamily properties with "value-add" potential, concentrated in the Southeastern and Southwestern United States. Its strategy revolves around renovating units to raise rents and drive returns.
Recent market activity has been challenging for the stock. Shares have underperformed the broader market over the past several quarters, and the company reported soft same-store results, including modest declines in revenue and net operating income (NOI — a measure of property-level profitability before overhead). Management recently reduced its full-year core funds from operations (FFO — a key REIT earnings metric) guidance, citing a higher projected interest-rate curve and softer revenue in select markets such as Nashville. The company also faces a floating-rate debt profile, with a significant portion of its interest-rate swap protection scheduled to roll off, adding sensitivity to borrowing costs.
On a positive note, NXRT continues to execute its value-add program, completing hundreds of unit upgrades with healthy returns on investment, and it trades at a substantial discount to its estimated net asset value (NAV — the estimated value of its properties minus liabilities). Management has also signaled openness to further share repurchases at current levels.
PINE Overview and Recent Performance
PINE, or Alpine Income Property Trust, is an owner and operator of single-tenant net-lease commercial properties — buildings leased to tenants such as Lowe's, Walmart, and Dick's Sporting Goods who bear most operating costs — complemented by a portfolio of commercial mortgage loans. The company operates across dozens of states and maintains very high portfolio occupancy.
Recent performance has been notably stronger than NXRT's. PINE has delivered positive year-to-date and one-year returns, supported by record levels of investment activity and a series of dividend increases. The company raised its full-year guidance for both investment volume and adjusted funds from operations (AFFO — FFO adjusted for recurring capital items), reflecting roughly double-digit growth at the midpoint. Its portfolio mix has also shifted toward higher-quality, investment-grade-rated tenants, and it has recycled lower-yielding loans into higher-yielding opportunities. Elevated leverage remains a consideration, with net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) above six times, but management has pointed to a conservative underwriting approach and solid liquidity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both companies are REITs, their underlying drivers could hardly be more different. NXRT is a leveraged, value-add play on Sun Belt apartments, making it highly sensitive to multifamily rent growth, occupancy, and interest rates. Its recent struggle reflects softening same-store rents and rising financing costs, compounded by guidance reductions. The potential offset is valuation: the stock trades well below estimated NAV, which could reward patient, value-oriented investors if operating trends stabilize.
PINE, by contrast, is a net-lease and credit-oriented business with sticky, long-duration leases and a dividend that management has been actively increasing. Its momentum, guidance revisions, and tenant-quality upgrades all point in a positive direction, though its growth relies on continued acquisition and loan origination activity and carries higher financial leverage.
In terms of market sentiment, PINE has clearly been the more favored name in recent weeks, while NXRT faces a "show-me" period as investors await evidence of rent stabilization. Income investors may note PINE's higher yield and lower payout ratio versus NXRT's deep discount to NAV and its own consistent, cash-flow-covered distribution.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors — including trend consistency, momentum, catalyst visibility, and relative positioning — Tickeron's AI would likely favor PINE in the current environment. PINE exhibits a steadier positive trend, improving fundamentals, and a clearer catalyst path through continued investment activity and dividend growth. NXRT, while potentially undervalued on an asset basis, currently shows softer momentum and less favorable near-term earnings signals. As always, the outcome depends on evolving market conditions, and AI models frame such judgments in probabilistic rather than absolute terms.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NXRT is a Hold and PINE is a Hold.
NXRT in -3.39% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on October 19, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where NXRT declined for three days, in 196 of 286 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NXRT as a result. In 57 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator for NXRT entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NXRT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 39 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NXRT just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where NXRT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +3.23% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NXRT advanced for three days, in 169 of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
NXRT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 36 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.865) is normal, around the industry mean (2.163). P/E Ratio (-13.809) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.209). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (6.209). Dividend Yield (0.117) settles around the average of (1.970) among similar stocks. NXRT's P/S Ratio (2.157) is slightly lower than the industry average of (5.317).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NXRT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NXRT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 96, placing this stock worse than average.
PINE in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026
PINE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 26 of 38 cases where PINE's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PINE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PINE just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where PINE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 56 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Following a +1.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PINE advanced for three days, in 138 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PINE as a result. In 45 of 97 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The 50-day moving average for PINE moved below the 200-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PINE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
The Aroon Indicator for PINE entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.910) is normal, around the industry mean (2.673). P/E Ratio (74.435) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.730). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (12.808). Dividend Yield (0.075) settles around the average of (246.424) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.250) is also within normal values, averaging (6.739).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PINE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
NXRT | PINE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 37 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 36 Fair valued | 44 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 51 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 78 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 60 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NXRT's Valuation (36) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as PINE (44) in the null industry. This means that NXRT’s stock grew similarly to PINE’s over the last 12 months.
PINE's Profit vs Risk Rating (51) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NXRT (100) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. This means that PINE’s stock grew somewhat faster than NXRT’s over the last 12 months.
PINE's SMR Rating (89) in the null industry is in the same range as NXRT (94) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. This means that PINE’s stock grew similarly to NXRT’s over the last 12 months.
PINE's Price Growth Rating (54) in the null industry is in the same range as NXRT (78) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. This means that PINE’s stock grew similarly to NXRT’s over the last 12 months.
NXRT's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PINE (60) in the null industry. This means that NXRT’s stock grew somewhat faster than PINE’s over the last 12 months.
| NXRT | PINE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 46% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | about 1 month ago 60% | 7 days ago 45% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | about 1 month ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 40% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NXRT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PINE’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- NXRT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PINE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NXRT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PINE’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NXRT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- PINE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NXRT (@Media Conglomerates) experienced а -1.09% price change this week, while PINE (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price change was -2.95% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Media Conglomerates industry was +2.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.03%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
NXRT is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PINE is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Media Conglomerates (+2.23% weekly)Companies that operate in these three (or more) areas: broadcasting, cable TV, publishing and movies/entertainment. The companies usually have a large share in these markets. Walt Disney Co . is an example.
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (+2.34% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
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PINE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PINE has been loosely correlated with GLPI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PINE jumps, then GLPI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PINE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PINE | 100% | -3.28% | ||
| GLPI - PINE | 55% Loosely correlated | -2.02% | ||
| STAG - PINE | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.36% | ||
| NXRT - PINE | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.22% | ||
| DOC - PINE | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.49% | ||
| EPR - PINE | 50% Loosely correlated | -1.50% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| CCIF | 1.93 | 0.03 | +1.58% |
| Carlyle Credit Income Fund | |||
| IUSV | 115.02 | 0.42 | +0.37% |
| iShares Core S&P US Value ETF (IUSV) | |||
| ZSEP | 28.01 | 0.07 | +0.25% |
| Innovator 1 Yr September (ZSEP) | |||
| HELS | 23.69 | N/A | N/A |
| Hedgeye 130/30 Equity ETF (HELS) | |||
| AUSF | 50.71 | -0.14 | -0.28% |
| Global X Adaptive U.S. Factor ETF (AUSF) | |||