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NXRT vs PINE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NexPoint Residential Trust (NXRT) vs. Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NexPoint Residential Trust (NXRT) and Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE) are both publicly traded REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), but they operate in fundamentally different property sectors — multifamily residential versus single-tenant net-lease commercial, respectively.
- PINE has delivered significantly stronger recent price momentum, rising roughly 25% year-to-date, while NXRT has declined approximately 5% over the same period amid Sun Belt multifamily supply headwinds.
- NXRT offers a substantially higher dividend yield at approximately 7.4%–8.1%, compared to PINE's roughly 6.0%–6.2%, but NXRT's payout is not currently covered by net earnings.
- PINE has been aggressively expanding its portfolio, completing a record $278 million in total investments in 2025 and raising its quarterly dividend by 6.7% in mid-2026, reflecting strong AFFO (Adjusted Funds From Operations) growth.
- NXRT carries significantly higher leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 5.75x, while PINE maintains a more moderate net debt to EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) ratio of 6.4x with no debt maturities until 2029.
- Analyst consensus leans cautious on NXRT with an average "Reduce" rating, while PINE holds a "Moderate Buy" consensus, though both stocks warrant careful evaluation given their differing risk profiles.
Introduction
Investors navigating the REIT landscape often face a choice between property sectors that respond differently to economic cycles, interest rate shifts, and demographic trends. This comparison examines two distinct publicly traded REITs: NXRT, a multifamily residential operator concentrated in the Sun Belt, and PINE, a single-tenant net-lease commercial property owner with a growing portfolio of investment-grade tenants. Both companies are relevant to income-oriented investors seeking regular distributions, yet their business models, growth trajectories, and market positioning differ markedly. Understanding how these two REITs compare across dimensions such as revenue quality, momentum, balance-sheet strength, and market sentiment can help traders and investors make more informed decisions in the current environment.
NXRT Overview and Recent Performance
NXRT is an externally managed REIT focused on acquiring, owning, and operating middle-income multifamily properties with "value-add" potential, primarily across the Southeastern and Southwestern United States. The company's portfolio consists of 36 properties encompassing approximately 13,305 units, with a weighted average effective monthly rent of roughly $1,492 per unit as of late 2025. NXRT pursues a strategy of renovating and upgrading units to capture rent premiums, and since inception it has completed nearly 10,000 full and partial unit upgrades.
In recent months, NXRT has faced notable headwinds. For the full year 2025, the company reported a net loss of $32.0 million, or a loss of $1.26 per diluted share, compared to net income of $1.1 million in 2024. Same-store NOI (Net Operating Income) declined 1.6% year-over-year, and same-store occupancy slipped to 92.7%. The Sun Belt multifamily sector has been pressured by elevated new supply deliveries, particularly in markets where NXRT is concentrated. In its Q1 2026 report, the company beat consensus estimates with a narrower loss of $0.27 per share versus expectations of a $0.37 loss, and revenue of $63.54 million exceeded forecasts. However, the stock has continued to trade below its 52-week high near $35, recently changing hands in the mid-to-upper $20s. Analysts remain cautious, with a consensus "Reduce" rating and price targets clustered around $22 to $26. The company also carries substantial debt of approximately $1.57 billion, with a debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 5.75x, though it benefits from having no scheduled debt maturities until 2028.
PINE Overview and Recent Performance
PINE is a publicly traded REIT that specializes in acquiring, owning, and operating single-tenant net-leased commercial income properties. Its portfolio has grown to 128 properties totaling approximately 4.5 million square feet across 31 states, with a weighted average remaining lease term of 9.2 years and occupancy of 99.5%. The company focuses on tenants with strong credit profiles: as of mid-2026, 55% of annualized base rent (ABR) came from investment-grade-rated tenants, with marquee names such as Lowe's, Dick's Sporting Goods, Walmart, and Alamo Drafthouse (a Sony subsidiary) among its top exposures.
PINE has demonstrated robust momentum in recent quarters. In its Q2 2026 report released in late July, the company delivered FFO of $0.57 per diluted share and AFFO of $0.58 per diluted share, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 30% and 32%, respectively. Total revenue reached $20.0 million, surpassing consensus estimates. The company completed roughly $77 million in total investment activity during the quarter at a blended initial yield of 8.7%. Management raised the low end of full-year 2026 guidance, now projecting AFFO of $2.12 to $2.15 per diluted share, implying approximately 13% year-over-year growth — among the highest in the net-lease sector. The board also approved a 6.7% dividend increase to $0.32 per share beginning in Q3 2026. The stock has appreciated roughly 25% year-to-date, reaching new 52-week highs, though Raymond James recently downgraded the shares from "Strong Buy" to "Outperform," citing a reduced upside gap to its $22 price target after the strong run.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both NXRT and PINE operate as REITs, their business models diverge sharply, creating distinct risk-reward profiles. NXRT's multifamily value-add strategy depends on renovating units, raising rents, and capturing Sun Belt demographic tailwinds. This model is inherently more operationally intensive and sensitive to local supply dynamics. The current oversupply cycle in Sun Belt apartment markets has pressured same-store NOI and occupancy, contributing to NXRT's recent negative earnings and cautious analyst sentiment. By contrast, PINE's single-tenant net-lease model produces more predictable cash flows, with tenants responsible for most property-level expenses and long lease durations reducing near-term rollover risk.
On growth, PINE has the clearer upward trajectory: record investment volumes, rising AFFO per share, and consistent dividend increases underscore an expansion phase backed by accretive capital deployment. NXRT, meanwhile, is navigating a trough period — its 2026 same-store NOI guidance projects a midpoint decline of 0.5%, and Core FFO per share is expected between $2.42 and $2.71, which at the midpoint represents a decline from 2025's $2.79. On balance-sheet strength, PINE's lower absolute debt, manageable net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.4x, and absence of maturities until 2029 contrast with NXRT's $1.57 billion debt load and 5.75x debt-to-equity ratio. However, NXRT trades at a meaningful discount to estimated net asset value (NAV), which some value-oriented investors view as an opportunity. In terms of market sentiment, PINE's beta of 0.56 signals lower volatility compared to NXRT's beta of 1.18, and PINE's year-to-date gains stand in stark contrast to NXRT's losses.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trends, relative positioning, and current market data, Tickeron's AI would likely favor PINE over NXRT in the current environment. PINE exhibits stronger and more consistent upward momentum across multiple dimensions: accelerating AFFO per share growth, rising investment-grade tenant exposure, expanding investment volumes at attractive yields, and a dividend that is both growing and well-covered by operating cash flow. Its technical profile shows bullish indicators, with the stock trading near 52-week highs and delivering positive price performance across weekly, monthly, and quarterly timeframes. NXRT, while potentially undervalued on a NAV basis and offering a higher headline dividend yield, faces persistent headwinds from Sun Belt supply pressure, declining same-store metrics, negative net income, and elevated leverage that introduces greater sensitivity to interest rate moves. The AI's probabilistic assessment would likely recognize that PINE's trend consistency — supported by fundamental and technical signals — offers a more favorable near-to-intermediate-term risk-reward profile, while acknowledging that NXRT could present contrarian value if multifamily supply conditions improve and the company's operational turnaround materializes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NXRT is a Hold and PINE is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NXRT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePINE’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- NXRT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PINE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NXRT’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PINE’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NXRT’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
- PINE’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
NXRT (@Media Conglomerates) experienced а +0.15% price change this week, while PINE (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) price change was -1.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Media Conglomerates industry was -0.90%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.32%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was -4.56%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.64%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
NXRT is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
PINE is expected to report earnings on Oct 15, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Media Conglomerates (-0.90% weekly)Companies that operate in these three (or more) areas: broadcasting, cable TV, publishing and movies/entertainment. The companies usually have a large share in these markets. Walt Disney Co . is an example.
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (-4.56% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
| NXRT | PINE | NXRT / PINE | |
| Capitalization | 666M | 333M | 200% |
| EBITDA | 145M | 50.7M | 286% |
| Gain YTD | -9.812 | 24.463 | -40% |
| P/E Ratio | 916.00 | 96.10 | 953% |
| Revenue | 252M | 69.9M | 361% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 2.78M | - |
| Total Debt | 1.57B | 375M | 418% |
NXRT | PINE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 65 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 50 Fair valued | 38 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | 90 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 51 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PINE's Valuation (38) in the null industry is in the same range as NXRT (50) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. This means that PINE’s stock grew similarly to NXRT’s over the last 12 months.
PINE's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NXRT (100) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. This means that PINE’s stock grew somewhat faster than NXRT’s over the last 12 months.
PINE's SMR Rating (90) in the null industry is in the same range as NXRT (95) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. This means that PINE’s stock grew similarly to NXRT’s over the last 12 months.
PINE's Price Growth Rating (44) in the null industry is in the same range as NXRT (70) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. This means that PINE’s stock grew similarly to NXRT’s over the last 12 months.
NXRT's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PINE (51) in the null industry. This means that NXRT’s stock grew somewhat faster than PINE’s over the last 12 months.
| NXRT | PINE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 47% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 43% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 63% | 17 days ago 44% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 40% |
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PINE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PINE has been loosely correlated with GLPI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PINE jumps, then GLPI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PINE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PINE | 100% | -0.59% | ||
| GLPI - PINE | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.18% | ||
| STAG - PINE | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.73% | ||
| NXRT - PINE | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.66% | ||
| DOC - PINE | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.04% | ||
| EPR - PINE | 50% Loosely correlated | -2.56% | ||
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