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OGS vs SWX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ONE Gas (OGS) vs. Southwest Gas Holdings (SWX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- OGS is a 100% regulated natural gas utility serving 2.3 million customers across Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, delivering consistent, utility-style returns with a 5–7% long-term adjusted EPS (earnings per share) growth outlook.
- SWX has completed its transformation into a pure-play regulated natural gas utility after fully separating from its former subsidiary Centuri, and now projects a significantly higher 12–14% EPS CAGR (compound annual growth rate) through 2030.
- SWX carries a major growth catalyst in the Great Basin Gas Transmission expansion project, an estimated $1.7 billion infrastructure opportunity expected around 2028, while OGS relies on steady rate-base growth and customer additions.
- Both companies recently raised dividends — OGS to $2.72 annually and SWX to $2.58 annually — reflecting confidence in their respective financial positions.
- OGS offers lower but more predictable growth, while SWX presents higher potential returns alongside greater regulatory and project-execution risk.
- In the current market environment, SWX's catalyst-rich pipeline and higher growth trajectory may appeal to growth-oriented investors, whereas OGS remains a classic defensive utility holding.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the regulated natural gas utility space increasingly encounter a compelling comparison: OGS (ONE Gas, Inc.) versus SWX (Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.). Both companies operate as regulated natural gas distribution utilities, yet they sit at distinctly different stages of their corporate lifecycles. ONE Gas is a mature, steady operator with a deeply established footprint across three Midwestern and Southern states. Southwest Gas Holdings, by contrast, has recently emerged from a multi-year strategic transformation — shedding its infrastructure services subsidiary Centuri to become a streamlined, pure-play utility with an aggressive growth roadmap. This comparison examines how these two names stack up across key dimensions including business model, growth catalysts, financial health, and market positioning, providing a nuanced view for both income-focused and growth-oriented investors.
OGS Overview and Recent Performance
OGS (ONE Gas, Inc.) is one of the largest fully regulated natural gas utilities in the United States. Headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, the company serves more than 2.3 million customers through its three operating divisions: Kansas Gas Service, Oklahoma Natural Gas, and Texas Gas Service. The company is a component of the S&P MidCap 400 Index and operates under a 100% regulated model, meaning virtually all revenue comes through rate-regulated utility operations.
In recent market activity, ONE Gas has demonstrated the kind of steady, predictable performance that defines the regulated utility sector. Full-year 2025 adjusted net income reached $271 million, or $4.48 per diluted share, representing a meaningful year-over-year improvement from $3.94 in 2024. The company achieved its 12th consecutive year of meeting or exceeding initial EPS guidance — a track record that underscores its operational consistency. Revenue growth has been supported by favorable rate case outcomes across all three jurisdictions, including a $14.4 million revenue increase approved in Texas and a $41.1 million base rate settlement in Oklahoma.
Sentiment around OGS in recent weeks has been shaped by its 2026 guidance, which calls for adjusted EPS of $4.83 to $4.95 and approximately $800 million in capital expenditures. The company also raised its quarterly dividend by a penny to $0.68 per share ($2.72 annualized), continuing a pattern of modest but reliable dividend growth. With a long-term adjusted net income growth target of 7–9% and adjusted EPS growth of 5–7%, ONE Gas offers a classic utility investment profile: stable, regulated, and income-oriented.
SWX Overview and Recent Performance
SWX (Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.) has undergone one of the most significant corporate transformations in the utility sector over the past year. The Las Vegas-based company completed its full separation from Centuri Holdings, its former infrastructure services subsidiary, generating approximately $1.35 billion in net proceeds. This move repositioned Southwest Gas Holdings as a pure-play regulated natural gas utility serving customers across Arizona, Nevada, and California — markets characterized by above-average population growth and increasing energy demand.
The separation has already yielded tangible balance sheet benefits. S&P upgraded both the holding company and utility credit ratings to BBB+ with stable outlooks, and the company fully repaid its term loan and revolving credit facility. Full-year 2025 adjusted net income from continuing operations reached $263.8 million, or $3.65 per diluted share, with the utility segment delivering an adjusted ROE (return on equity) of 8.3%. The company added approximately 37,000 new meter sets during the year, translating to a 1.6% customer growth rate.
Looking ahead, SWX has initiated 2026 EPS guidance of $4.17 to $4.32 and outlined an ambitious 2026–2030 capital expenditure plan totaling $6.3 billion, with a rate base CAGR of 9.5–11.5%. The board also approved a 4% dividend increase to $2.58 per share annually. The most significant growth catalyst is the Great Basin Gas Transmission Company expansion — a potential $1.7 billion project targeting a 2028 in-service date, which received pre-filing approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in early 2026. Combined with upcoming rate cases in Arizona and Nevada, SWX appears to have multiple levers for sustained above-average growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
When placed side by side, OGS and SWX reveal a clear trade-off between stability and growth. ONE Gas operates in mature, slower-growth territories — Kansas, Oklahoma, and parts of Texas — where customer additions are modest and the growth story hinges on steady rate-base expansion and disciplined cost management. Southwest Gas serves some of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in the country, including Phoenix and Las Vegas, where population inflows and economic expansion continue to drive above-average customer growth.
On the financial front, the contrast sharpens. OGS generated adjusted EPS of $4.48 in 2025, compared to SWX's $3.65, giving OGS a higher current earnings base. However, SWX's forward growth narrative is substantially more aggressive: a 12–14% EPS CAGR through 2030 versus OGS's 5–7% target. SWX's $6.3 billion five-year capital plan dwarfs OGS's ~$800 million annual capex, and the Great Basin expansion alone could meaningfully reshape SWX's earnings trajectory.
Risk profiles also differ. OGS faces standard utility risks — regulatory lag, weather variability (mitigated by normalization mechanisms), and interest rate sensitivity on its $2.36 billion long-term debt. SWX contends with those same factors but adds project-execution risk tied to the Great Basin expansion and the uncertainty of upcoming rate case outcomes in Arizona and Nevada. SWX's higher leverage — with $3.43 billion in long-term debt — also warrants attention, though the credit rating upgrade and strong liquidity position ($577 million in cash, $1.3 billion total liquidity) provide meaningful cushion.
From a market sentiment perspective, OGS tends to attract income-oriented investors who value predictable dividend growth and a 12-year track record of meeting guidance. SWX appears positioned to capture interest from investors seeking a utility with a growth kicker — the kind of name that can benefit from both the defensive characteristics of a regulated utility and the upside optionality of large-scale infrastructure development.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, catalyst density, and relative growth positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely tilt in favor of SWX in the current market environment — though with the important caveat that this preference reflects a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive call. The AI's reasoning centers on SWX's confluence of positive signals: the completed Centuri separation has simplified the corporate structure and strengthened the balance sheet, the S&P credit upgrade confirms improving credit quality, and the Great Basin expansion represents a clearly defined, high-impact catalyst that peers like OGS simply do not possess. SWX's projected 12–14% EPS CAGR also stands out as materially above the regulated utility average, suggesting greater potential for upward earnings revisions over time. That said, OGS would likely remain the AI's preferred choice for users optimizing for lower volatility and income consistency, given its deeply established regulatory relationships, weather normalization protections, and unbroken record of meeting guidance. The final determination, as with any comparative AI analysis, depends on the weighting assigned to growth versus stability in a given market regime.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is OGS is a Buy and SWX is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
OGS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSWX’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- OGS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SWX’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
OGS’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SWX’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- OGS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
- SWX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
OGS (@Gas Distributors) experienced а +1.75% price change this week, while SWX (@Gas Distributors) price change was -0.34% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Gas Distributors industry was +0.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.83%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.35%.
Reported Earning Dates
OGS is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
SWX is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Gas Distributors (+0.16% weekly)Gas distributors are involved in moving and selling gas – from wellheads or over-distribution systems operated by other firms – to residential and non-residential customers. These companies perform tasks such as the gathering and processing of gas, intrastate and interstate transport, and delivery to the customer. Some of the biggest gas distributing companies in the U.S. include Sempra Energy, Avangrid Inc and Atmos Energy Corporation.
| OGS | SWX | OGS / SWX | |
| Capitalization | 5.09B | 6.67B | 76% |
| EBITDA | 783M | 878M | 89% |
| Gain YTD | 6.587 | 16.741 | 39% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.46 | 23.67 | 74% |
| Revenue | 2.32B | 1.78B | 131% |
| Total Cash | 11.4M | 485M | 2% |
| Total Debt | 3.38B | 3.51B | 96% |
OGS | SWX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 74 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 19 Undervalued | 53 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 50 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 78 | 64 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 73 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
OGS's Valuation (19) in the Gas Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SWX (53). This means that OGS’s stock grew somewhat faster than SWX’s over the last 12 months.
SWX's Profit vs Risk Rating (50) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as OGS (62). This means that SWX’s stock grew similarly to OGS’s over the last 12 months.
SWX's SMR Rating (64) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as OGS (78). This means that SWX’s stock grew similarly to OGS’s over the last 12 months.
SWX's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as OGS (58). This means that SWX’s stock grew similarly to OGS’s over the last 12 months.
OGS's P/E Growth Rating (53) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as SWX (73). This means that OGS’s stock grew similarly to SWX’s over the last 12 months.
| OGS | SWX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 54% | 15 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 57% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| ROBT | 60.77 | 1.25 | +2.10% |
| FT Nasdaq Artfcl Intllgnc and Rbtc ETF | |||
| IBGB | 23.55 | 0.14 | +0.61% |
| iShares iBonds Dec 2045 Term Trsy ETF | |||
| PYLD | 26.26 | 0.09 | +0.34% |
| PIMCO Multisector Bond Active ETF | |||
| MNBD | 25.80 | 0.03 | +0.12% |
| ALPS Intermediate Municipal Bond ETF | |||
| IDE | 13.28 | -0.06 | -0.45% |
| Voya Infrastructure Industrials AND Materials Fund | |||
OGS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OGS has been closely correlated with SR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OGS jumps, then SR could also see price increases.
SWX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SWX has been closely correlated with SR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SWX jumps, then SR could also see price increases.