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NJR vs SWX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? New Jersey Resources (NJR) vs. Southwest Gas Holdings (SWX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NJR has delivered a stronger year-to-date return of approximately 30%, driven by robust performance in its diversified Energy Services segment and multiple upward guidance revisions during fiscal 2026.
- SWX offers a higher absolute dividend ($2.58/share annually vs. $1.90) and carries a consensus "Strong Buy" analyst rating with a price target implying roughly 8% upside from current levels.
- NJR operates a more diversified business model spanning regulated utility, clean energy, energy services, and midstream assets, while SWX functions primarily as a pure-play regulated natural gas distributor.
- SWX benefits from a massive $6.3 billion five-year capital expenditure (CapEx) plan and 9.5-11.5% rate base compound annual growth rate (CAGR), positioning it for long-term regulated earnings expansion.
- Both companies maintain multi-decade dividend growth records and low-beta profiles, making them relevant for income-oriented and defensive investors evaluating the natural gas utility landscape.
Introduction
Investors navigating the utility and energy infrastructure space often weigh trade-offs between pure-play regulated stability and diversified growth exposure. This comparison examines NJR (New Jersey Resources Corporation) and SWX (Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.) — two well-established natural gas-focused companies with distinct geographic footprints, business models, and growth narratives. While both serve regulated customer bases and return capital to shareholders through consistent dividends, their approaches to generating earnings growth differ markedly. For traders evaluating relative performance and market positioning, understanding how these two stocks diverge in momentum, risk exposure, and forward catalysts offers a practical lens into the current utility investment landscape.
NJR Overview and Recent Performance
NJR, headquartered in Wall, New Jersey, is a diversified energy infrastructure holding company with five primary business segments: New Jersey Natural Gas (its regulated utility subsidiary), Clean Energy Ventures (solar investments), Energy Services (wholesale and retail energy management), Storage and Transportation (midstream pipeline and storage assets), and Home Services. In recent weeks, NJR shares have traded near the upper end of their 52-week range, reflecting sustained investor confidence. The stock has posted a year-to-date gain of roughly 30%, outpacing the broader S&P 500 by a wide margin.
Performance has been fueled by exceptional results in the Energy Services segment, which capitalized on natural gas price volatility during a notably harsh winter season. In its fiscal second quarter (ended March 31, 2026), NJR reported net financial earnings per share (NFEPS) of $2.20, significantly exceeding consensus estimates of approximately $1.77. Management raised full-year fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance for the second consecutive time, lifting the range to $3.48–$3.63. The company also continues to reward shareholders, maintaining a 30-year streak of annual dividend increases with a current quarterly payout of $0.475 per share. Analysts maintain a consensus "Buy" rating, with price targets ranging from $53 to $64.
SWX Overview and Recent Performance
SWX, based in Las Vegas, Nevada, operates through its primary subsidiary Southwest Gas Corporation as a regulated natural gas utility serving approximately 2.28 million customers across Arizona, Nevada, and California. Unlike NJR, SWX is a near-pure-play regulated distributor, having streamlined its business to focus exclusively on natural gas distribution and transmission. In recent weeks, SWX shares reached a fresh 52-week high, trading near $94, and have registered a year-to-date gain of roughly 18%.
SWX's first-quarter 2026 results showed adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.91, modestly beating consensus expectations, though reported revenue declined year-over-year primarily due to lower commodity cost passthroughs — a common dynamic among regulated gas utilities. The company's growth narrative centers on its ambitious $6.3 billion five-year capital expenditure plan (2026–2030), targeting a rate base CAGR of 9.5–11.5%. A key catalyst is the Great Basin pipeline expansion, which could add $1.2–$1.6 billion in new CapEx. SWX declared a quarterly dividend of $0.645 per share in mid-July, and analysts assign a consensus "Strong Buy" rating with an average price target of approximately $100.50.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most consequential difference between NJR and SWX lies in business model composition. NJR's diversified platform — combining regulated utility earnings with merchant energy services, clean energy, and midstream storage — provides multiple levers for earnings growth but also introduces exposure to commodity price swings. This was clearly demonstrated in recent quarters when Energy Services outperformed dramatically amid natural gas price volatility, leading to back-to-back guidance raises. SWX, by contrast, offers the predictability of a pure-play regulated utility, where earnings growth is primarily driven by rate base expansion and customer additions rather than market conditions.
On valuation, NJR trades at a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) of roughly 17–18, while SWX commands a higher trailing multiple around 28. However, on a forward basis SWX's multiple compresses meaningfully given its projected EPS growth trajectory of approximately 15% for fiscal 2026. NJR's dividend yield of roughly 3.2% exceeds SWX's approximately 2.8%, though SWX's lower payout ratio (around 37% vs. approximately 56%) suggests greater capacity for future dividend growth or capital reinvestment. Geographically, NJR is concentrated in a single state's regulatory environment, while SWX spans three states — offering some regulatory diversification but also exposure to demographic trends in the Southwest.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable market factors, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely find compelling signals in both stocks but for different reasons. NJR's stronger near-term momentum, consistent earnings beats, and upward guidance trajectory present a favorable trend-following profile that quantitative models often favor. The stock's recent breakout to new highs suggests trend consistency that AI algorithms may interpret as a continuation signal. Meanwhile, SWX's extensive capital investment pipeline, analyst consensus "Strong Buy" rating, and structural rate base growth offer a steadier, catalyst-rich backdrop that could appeal to AI strategies oriented toward longer holding periods. On balance, an AI analysis would probably lean toward NJR in the short-to-medium term given its superior price momentum and positive earnings revision cycle, while recognizing that SWX's regulated growth runway provides a more predictable, if less dynamic, long-term compounding proposition.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NJR is a StrongBuy and SWX is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NJR’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileSWX’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- NJR’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- SWX’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NJR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SWX’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NJR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SWX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
NJR (@Gas Distributors) experienced а +1.96% price change this week, while SWX (@Gas Distributors) price change was -0.34% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Gas Distributors industry was +0.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.83%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.35%.
Reported Earning Dates
NJR is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
SWX is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Gas Distributors (+0.16% weekly)Gas distributors are involved in moving and selling gas – from wellheads or over-distribution systems operated by other firms – to residential and non-residential customers. These companies perform tasks such as the gathering and processing of gas, intrastate and interstate transport, and delivery to the customer. Some of the biggest gas distributing companies in the U.S. include Sempra Energy, Avangrid Inc and Atmos Energy Corporation.
| NJR | SWX | NJR / SWX | |
| Capitalization | 5.64B | 6.67B | 84% |
| EBITDA | 760M | 878M | 87% |
| Gain YTD | 22.547 | 16.741 | 135% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.39 | 23.67 | 65% |
| Revenue | 2.18B | 1.78B | 122% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 485M | - |
| Total Debt | 3.77B | 3.51B | 107% |
NJR | SWX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 74 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 21 Undervalued | 53 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 50 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 64 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 73 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NJR's Valuation (21) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as SWX (53). This means that NJR’s stock grew similarly to SWX’s over the last 12 months.
NJR's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as SWX (50). This means that NJR’s stock grew similarly to SWX’s over the last 12 months.
NJR's SMR Rating (62) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as SWX (64). This means that NJR’s stock grew similarly to SWX’s over the last 12 months.
SWX's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as NJR (57). This means that SWX’s stock grew similarly to NJR’s over the last 12 months.
NJR's P/E Growth Rating (22) in the Gas Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SWX (73). This means that NJR’s stock grew somewhat faster than SWX’s over the last 12 months.
| NJR | SWX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 42% | 15 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 57% |
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NJR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NJR has been closely correlated with OGS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NJR jumps, then OGS could also see price increases.
SWX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SWX has been closely correlated with SR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SWX jumps, then SR could also see price increases.