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ON vs STM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ON Semiconductor (ON) vs. STMicroelectronics (STM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ON and STM are semiconductor companies benefiting from AI-driven demand and cyclical recovery in the sector.
- ON focuses on power management and analog solutions with upcoming Q2 earnings expected to show strong year-over-year growth.
- STM reported robust Q2 revenue of $3.49 billion, up 26% year-over-year, with raised data-center targets supporting medium-term outlook.
- Recent market activity shows volatility for both stocks, with STM experiencing sharper short-term declines amid broader sector pressures.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs in business exposure, with ON emphasizing edge AI and STM leveraging automotive and industrial segments alongside data centers.
- Sector sentiment remains positive due to semiconductor tailwinds, though macroeconomic factors introduce risk for both equities.
Introduction
This comparison examines ON and STM, two established players in the semiconductor industry. The analysis focuses on their business models, recent performance trends, and positioning within the current market environment characterized by AI adoption and supply-chain normalization. Investors and traders seeking to understand relative strengths in the analog and power semiconductor space may find this overview relevant for portfolio allocation decisions or sector rotation strategies.
ON Overview and Recent Performance
ON Semiconductor Corporation, known as onsemi, specializes in power management, analog, and sensor solutions serving automotive, industrial, and communications markets. In recent weeks, the stock has exhibited volatility amid broader semiconductor sector movements, with prices fluctuating around the $80 level following earlier gains in 2026. Key influences include analyst focus on its Q2 earnings report scheduled for August 3, 2026, where expectations point to revenue of approximately $1.59 billion and earnings per share near $0.72. Strategic moves such as facility divestitures and emphasis on AI data-center opportunities have shaped sentiment, contributing to a mixed but generally constructive backdrop during the recovery phase from the industry cyclical trough.
STM Overview and Recent Performance
STMicroelectronics N.V. develops analog, mixed-signal, and power semiconductors with significant exposure to automotive, industrial, and consumer applications. Recent market activity reflects notable volatility, including a decline of over 30% in a four-week period amid sector-wide pressures, with shares trading near $52 in late July 2026. The company delivered Q2 2026 net revenues of $3.49 billion, representing a 26% year-over-year increase, alongside a gross margin of 34.8%. Positive drivers include an elevated data-center revenue outlook tied to AI infrastructure demand, which has supported longer-term positioning even as near-term guidance incorporates modest sequential growth expectations.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ON and STM share exposure to the semiconductor cycle and AI-related growth but differ in emphasis. ON maintains a stronger focus on power and edge computing solutions, potentially offering advantages in data-center efficiency applications. In contrast, STM benefits from broader automotive and industrial end-markets alongside its data-center push. Recent momentum has favored both amid sector recovery, though STM has shown larger short-term price swings. Risk factors include inventory adjustments and macroeconomic sensitivity for each, while market sentiment reflects optimism around structural AI demand tempered by valuation considerations and cyclical variability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency in revenue growth, stability in guidance execution, and relative positioning toward AI catalysts, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to STM. This reflects its demonstrated ability to exceed revenue expectations and raise data-center targets amid sector recovery, though both equities carry comparable exposure to near-term volatility and external market influences.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ON is a Buy and STM is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ON’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileSTM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ON’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- STM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ON’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ON’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- STM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ON (@Semiconductors) experienced а +4.12% price change this week, while STM (@Semiconductors) price change was +1.20% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +0.28%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +48.92%.
Reported Earning Dates
ON is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
STM is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+0.28% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ON | STM | ON / STM | |
| Capitalization | 32.2B | 49.1B | 66% |
| EBITDA | 1.52B | 2.71B | 56% |
| Gain YTD | 50.619 | 108.692 | 47% |
| P/E Ratio | 54.03 | 106.45 | 51% |
| Revenue | 6.06B | 13.1B | 46% |
| Total Cash | 2.4B | 6.03B | 40% |
| Total Debt | 3.01B | 4.03B | 75% |
ON | STM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 52 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 56 Fair valued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 70 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 80 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 6 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 38 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ON's Valuation (56) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as STM (70). This means that ON’s stock grew similarly to STM’s over the last 12 months.
ON's Profit vs Risk Rating (65) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as STM (70). This means that ON’s stock grew similarly to STM’s over the last 12 months.
ON's SMR Rating (80) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as STM (89). This means that ON’s stock grew similarly to STM’s over the last 12 months.
STM's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ON (55). This means that STM’s stock grew similarly to ON’s over the last 12 months.
STM's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (40). This means that STM’s stock grew somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
| ON | STM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 8 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 61% |
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ON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ON has been closely correlated with ADI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ON jumps, then ADI could also see price increases.
STM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STM has been closely correlated with ON. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if STM jumps, then ON could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To STM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STM | 100% | -0.48% | ||
| ON - STM | 72% Closely correlated | -2.11% | ||
| ENTG - STM | 69% Closely correlated | +1.69% | ||
| MCHPP - STM | 68% Closely correlated | -1.88% | ||
| MCHP - STM | 67% Closely correlated | -2.20% | ||
| KLIC - STM | 67% Closely correlated | +0.68% | ||
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