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ONB vs TCBI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Old National Bancorp (ONB) vs. Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ONB and TCBI reported strong Q1 2026 earnings beats, with ONB at $0.61 adjusted EPS and TCBI showing a 72% EPS surge.
- ONB exhibited robust loan growth of 8% annualized and stable net interest margin (NIM, a key measure of profitability from interest-earning assets) at 3.55%.
- TCBI gained 9% over recent 30 days amid revenue growth, though shares dipped post-earnings due to market reactions.
- ONB's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1, a regulatory capital ratio) stands at 11.11%, supporting share repurchases and dividend hikes.
- Both stocks show positive technical momentum, with shares trading above key moving averages in recent market activity.
- Tickeron's AI leans toward ONB for greater stability and growth outlook.
Introduction
Old National Bancorp (ONB) and Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) represent regional banking peers navigating interest rate dynamics and economic shifts. This stock comparison evaluates their business models, recent performance, and market positioning, aiding traders seeking momentum plays and investors focused on regional bank stability. With both delivering Q1 earnings beats amid loan expansion, the analysis highlights relative strengths in growth drivers, risk profiles, and sentiment—key for portfolio allocation in the current environment.
ONB Overview and Recent Performance
Old National Bancorp, a Midwest-focused regional bank holding company, provides lending, deposit, and wealth management services across multiple states. In recent weeks, ONB shares have traded around $24, reflecting gains from positive Q1 2026 results where adjusted EPS reached $0.61, exceeding estimates. Loan portfolios grew 8% annualized, driven by commercial and industrial segments, while deposits rose 4.2%. NIM held steady at 3.55%, and CET1 ratio strengthened to 11.11%. Shareholder returns included $151 million via repurchases and a 3.6% dividend increase to $0.145 per share. Technical indicators, including MACD histogram positivity and crosses above 50-day moving averages, have bolstered sentiment amid broader regional bank recovery.
TCBI Overview and Recent Performance
Texas Capital Bancshares, the holding company for Texas Capital Bank, offers commercial banking, investment banking, and wealth services primarily in Texas. TCBI shares, near $100, rose 9% over recent 30 days before a post-earnings pullback. Q1 2026 delivered a 72% EPS surge and robust revenue growth from diversified fee income and NIM expansion. Assets exceed $31.5 billion, with emphasis on middle-market lending. Recent leadership appointments signal growth strategy, alongside awards for middle-market banking. Mixed technicals show oversold Stochastic but bullish moving average crosses; shares reflect Texas economic resilience tempered by volatility in regional banking sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both ONB and TCBI operate in regional banking, but ONB spans the Midwest with $55.7 billion in deposits versus TCBI’s Texas-centric $31.5 billion assets, offering broader diversification. Growth drivers differ: ONB targets 4-6% 2026 loan expansion, while TCBI leverages fee income (18% of revenue) and M&A (mergers and acquisitions) advisory. Recent momentum favors TCBI’s short-term gains, but ONB shows steadier technicals. Risks include NIM compression for both amid rate uncertainty; ONB’s higher CET1 provides a buffer. Market sentiment tilts positive on capital returns for ONB, while TCBI benefits from regional economic tailwinds.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ONB with higher probability due to consistent trend signals, stronger CET1 positioning, and proactive capital management amid stable loan growth. TCBI offers upside from Texas exposure but trails in risk-adjusted metrics. Relative performance suggests monitoring for momentum shifts in regional banks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ONB is a Buy and TCBI is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ONB’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTCBI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ONB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TCBI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ONB’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TCBI’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ONB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TCBI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ONB (@Regional Banks) experienced а +1.32% price change this week, while TCBI (@Regional Banks) price change was -1.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.64%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.60%.
Reported Earning Dates
ONB is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
TCBI is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.31% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| ONB | TCBI | ONB / TCBI | |
| Capitalization | 9.79B | 4.43B | 221% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 14.935 | 10.195 | 146% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.89 | 13.41 | 96% |
| Revenue | 2.74B | 1.3B | 211% |
| Total Cash | 537M | 254M | 211% |
| Total Debt | 7.36B | 878M | 838% |
ONB | TCBI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 77 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 46 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 24 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ONB's Valuation (45) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TCBI (77). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TCBI (46). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's SMR Rating (16) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TCBI (24). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as TCBI (48). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's P/E Growth Rating (47) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TCBI (98). This means that ONB’s stock grew somewhat faster than TCBI’s over the last 12 months.
| ONB | TCBI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 76% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 12 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 27 days ago 59% | 6 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 67% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| EPAI | 31.15 | 0.76 | +2.51% |
| Harbor AI Inflection Strategy ETF | |||
| FNY | 108.78 | 0.84 | +0.78% |
| First Trust Mid Cap Growth AlphaDEX® ETF | |||
| PPIE | 28.10 | N/A | N/A |
| Putnam PanAgora ESG International Equity ETF | |||
| FDL | 48.97 | -0.08 | -0.16% |
| First Trust Morningstar Div Leaders ETF | |||
| NMT | 12.77 | -0.20 | -1.54% |
| Nuveen Massachusetts Quality Municipal Income Fund | |||
TCBI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TCBI has been closely correlated with SBCF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TCBI jumps, then SBCF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TCBI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCBI | 100% | +0.50% | ||
| SBCF - TCBI | 87% Closely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| FNB - TCBI | 86% Closely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| ONB - TCBI | 86% Closely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| ASB - TCBI | 85% Closely correlated | +0.62% | ||
| WTFC - TCBI | 85% Closely correlated | +1.10% | ||
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