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ONB vs WAL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Old National Bancorp (ONB) vs. Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ONB and WAL have posted strong gains in recent market activity, with WAL up approximately 17% over the past month compared to ONB's 13%.
- ONB boasts a slightly larger market capitalization of about $9.45 billion versus WAL's $8.74 billion, alongside a higher year-to-date return of 9.37% compared to WAL's 5.06%.
- WAL trades at a lower P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of 9.10 versus ONB's 13.55, indicating potentially better value relative to earnings.
- Dividend yields are comparable, with ONB at 2.39% and WAL at 2.11%, appealing to income-focused investors in the regional banking sector.
- Analysts rate both stocks as buys, with average price targets suggesting 12-15% upside potential from current levels.
- Upcoming quarterly earnings for both could drive near-term volatility amid a favorable rate environment for regional banks.
Introduction
Old National Bancorp (ONB) and Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) represent prominent regional banks navigating a dynamic market shaped by interest rate adjustments and economic recovery signals. This comparison is particularly relevant for traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing value in the banking sector, where both stocks have shown resilience. With similar market caps around $9 billion and strong recent price momentum, they offer insights into relative performance, valuation, and growth potential amid broader regional bank trends. Understanding their contrasts helps in portfolio diversification or sector rotation strategies.
ONB Overview and Recent Performance
Old National Bancorp (ONB) is a financial holding company providing commercial, consumer, and wealth management services primarily in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. In recent weeks, ONB shares have climbed, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 9.37% and a one-year return of nearly 27%, outperforming the S&P 500 in the shorter term. The stock trades around $24, with a market cap of $9.45 billion, P/E ratio of 13.55, and EPS of $1.79 (TTM). Sentiment has been bolstered by a Q4 2025 earnings beat, where adjusted EPS reached $0.62, surpassing estimates, alongside anticipation for Q1 results. Broader market recovery and stabilizing net interest margins (the spread between interest income and expenses) have supported positive price behavior, though share price swings highlight sensitivity to macroeconomic updates.
WAL Overview and Recent Performance
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL), one of the top-performing U.S. banking companies with over $90 billion in assets, focuses on specialty banking for commercial clients nationwide, with emphasis on the Western U.S. WAL shares have surged about 17% in recent weeks, building on a one-year gain of 22%, though year-to-date returns stand at 5.06%. Trading near $79, it has a market cap of $8.74 billion, attractive P/E of 9.10, and robust EPS of $8.73 (TTM). Recent strength stems from solid Q4 results and deposit growth, despite expectations of a Q1 EPS dip. Investor sentiment reflects optimism around fee income expansion and a steepening yield curve benefiting net interest income (NII, revenue from interest-bearing assets minus costs), positioning WAL for continued momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both ONB and WAL operate as regional banks but differ in footprint: ONB emphasizes Midwest retail and commercial banking, while WAL targets national specialty lending with heavier commercial real estate exposure. Growth drivers include ONB's deposit stability and WAL's fee income diversification. Recent momentum favors WAL's sharper short-term rise, contrasting ONB's steadier YTD edge. Valuation trade-offs show WAL cheaper on P/E and forward metrics, with higher EPS reflecting efficiency. Risks involve interest rate sensitivity and credit quality (non-performing loans), potentially amplified for WAL's niche focus. Sector exposure aligns with banking recovery, but market sentiment leans toward WAL's perceived upside amid analyst targets.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors WAL over ONB, based on superior short-term trend consistency, lower valuation multiples, and higher EPS positioning. WAL's recent momentum and growth catalysts suggest higher probability of outperformance in the near term, though ONB offers stability for conservative plays.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ONB is a Buy and WAL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ONB’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileWAL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ONB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WAL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ONB’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WAL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ONB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WAL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ONB (@Regional Banks) experienced а +1.01% price change this week, while WAL (@Regional Banks) price change was -3.73% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
ONB is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
WAL is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.31% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| ONB | WAL | ONB / WAL | |
| Capitalization | 9.66B | 8.6B | 112% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 13.483 | -5.352 | -252% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.89 | 9.17 | 141% |
| Revenue | 2.74B | 3.71B | 74% |
| Total Cash | 537M | 497M | 108% |
| Total Debt | 7.36B | 6.84B | 108% |
ONB | WAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 83 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 35 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 62 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WAL's Valuation (35) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (45). This means that WAL’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WAL (100). This means that ONB’s stock grew somewhat faster than WAL’s over the last 12 months.
WAL's SMR Rating (13) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (16). This means that WAL’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as WAL (49). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to WAL’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's P/E Growth Rating (47) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as WAL (62). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to WAL’s over the last 12 months.
| ONB | WAL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 12 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 27 days ago 59% | 8 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 62% |
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