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PAYC vs PAYX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Paycom Software (PAYC) vs. Paychex (PAYX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PAYC (Paycom Software) has delivered notably stronger recent momentum than PAYX (Paychex), posting double-digit gains in recent months while Paychex shares have lagged the broader market.
- Paycom's latest quarterly results beat estimates, with revenue rising 7.8% year over year to roughly $571.9 million, alongside a new $2 billion share repurchase authorization.
- Paychex's largest segment, Management Solutions, grew just 4% in its most recent quarter, a deceleration that pressured the stock despite solid overall profitability.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, relative momentum, and near-term positioning, Tickeron's AI currently favors PAYC over PAYX.
- For more detail on each company, explore PAYC Major News and PAYC Today's Price Move, as well as PAYX Major News and PAYX Today's Price Move.
- To see which automated strategies are currently favored by the market, visit the curated Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Paycom Software and Paychex both operate in the human capital management (HCM) space, selling payroll, human resources, and workforce-management technology, yet they serve different client bases and carry distinct market narratives. PAYC targets midsized and larger employers with a cloud-native, single-database software platform, while PAYX focuses heavily on small and mid-sized businesses through outsourcing and service-led models. This comparison is relevant for growth-oriented investors weighing a high-momentum software recovery against an income-oriented, dividend-paying franchise, as well as for traders seeking to understand how two HCM leaders are diverging in the current market environment.
PAYC Overview and Recent Performance
PAYC, Paycom Software, provides cloud-based HCM software that automates payroll, HR, talent management, and time-and-labor functions on a single platform. In recent market activity, the stock has staged a sharp recovery, reflecting renewed confidence in its automation and AI-led product strategy. Paycom's most recent reported quarter beat consensus expectations, with revenue of about $571.9 million and earnings per share (EPS, profit allocated to each outstanding share) of $3.15, while management reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance near $2.19 billion.
Several factors have supported sentiment in recent weeks. Paycom announced a $2 billion share repurchase authorization and reported that usage of "IWant," its AI-enabled employee interface, climbed meaningfully. The company has emphasized improving revenue retention and operating margin expansion as automation deepens across its platform. This combination of earnings outperformance, capital returns, and AI-driven product momentum has helped PAYC outperform the broader market, although the stock still carries a consensus "Hold" rating from many analysts.
PAYX Overview and Recent Performance
PAYX, Paychex, is a leading provider of payroll, HR, benefits, and retirement outsourcing solutions, primarily for small and mid-sized businesses. In its most recent fiscal quarter, total revenue grew about 6% year over year to roughly $1.63 billion and adjusted EPS increased about 10%, but the stock fell sharply as investors focused on slower growth in its core Management Solutions segment, which advanced only about 4%. The company's PEO (professional employer organization, a model where Paychex co-employs a client's workers) and insurance business grew around 12%.
Recent sentiment around PAYX has been pressured by concerns about the durability of its revenue growth trajectory and difficult year-over-year comparisons ahead. Management has maintained a full-year revenue growth outlook of roughly 5% to 6%, but several analysts lowered price targets following the quarter. On the positive side, Paychex offers a dividend yield near 4%, supported by strong cash generation and a history of returning capital to shareholders, which keeps it appealing to income-focused investors despite the softer growth profile.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own strategy, timeframe, performance history, and risk profile. Because market conditions shift constantly, only a select group earns a place in the Trending AI Robots section, which highlights the strategies currently best aligned with prevailing market dynamics. These curated bots span varied styles, from momentum and swing trading to longer-horizon trend-following approaches, allowing traders to review their statistics and select the one that fits their objectives. Exploring the page can help you identify which automated approaches are presently gaining traction across the market.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly in growth trajectory and investor positioning. PAYC offers a software-centric, higher-growth model with expanding margins and an aggressive buyback, making it more sensitive to execution on AI and automation adoption. PAYX, by contrast, presents a more diversified, service-heavy model with a meaningful dividend and greater exposure to small-business employment trends, but its core segment is growing more slowly and has triggered analyst caution.
Risk factors also diverge. Paycom carries concentration risk around its single-platform, mid-market focus and elevated valuation sensitivity to growth expectations. Paychex faces execution and integration risk tied to its recent Paycor acquisition and a slowdown in Management Solutions revenue. On sentiment, Paycom has enjoyed upward momentum and estimate revisions, while Paychex has seen price-target reductions and mixed analyst ratings. For relative performance, Paycom has clearly led in recent months, whereas Paychex's steadier cash flows and dividend may appeal to a more defensive, income-oriented investor.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative momentum, earnings surprises, and near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI would currently favor PAYC over PAYX. Paycom's combination of a confirmed earnings beat, margin expansion, aggressive capital returns, and strengthening price momentum presents a more favorable technical and fundamental setup at present. Paychex retains a solid cash-flow profile and attractive dividend, but its decelerating core segment and recent analyst downgrades weigh on its relative positioning. This assessment reflects current probabilities and trend data rather than a guaranteed outcome, and conditions could shift as new earnings and economic data emerge.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PAYC is a Hold and PAYX is a Buy.
PAYC's RSI Indicator peaks and leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PAYC moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 23 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 20 of the 23 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PAYC as a result. In 63 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PAYC turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 79%.
PAYC moved below its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAYC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +2.06% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAYC advanced for three days, in 207 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
PAYC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 129 of 227 cases where PAYC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PAYC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (18.716) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.906). P/E Ratio (25.034) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.554). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.167) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.549) is also within normal values, averaging (70.383).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PAYC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
PAYX in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for PAYX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PAYX as a result. In 49 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PAYX just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where PAYX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
PAYX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAYX advanced for three days, in 164 of 306 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 119 of 233 cases where PAYX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PAYX moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 13 of the 28 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 46%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 31 of 62 cases where PAYX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAYX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
PAYX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PAYX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.246) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.906). P/E Ratio (23.226) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.554). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.848) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.452) is also within normal values, averaging (70.383).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PAYX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.
PAYC | PAYX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 39 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 83 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | 22 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 21 | 55 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PAYX's Valuation (80) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (83) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that PAYX’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
PAYX's Profit vs Risk Rating (83) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (100) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that PAYX’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
PAYX's SMR Rating (22) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (25) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that PAYX’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
PAYC's Price Growth Rating (7) in the Packaged Software industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PAYX (43) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that PAYC’s stock grew somewhat faster than PAYX’s over the last 12 months.
PAYC's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Packaged Software industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PAYX (55) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that PAYC’s stock grew somewhat faster than PAYX’s over the last 12 months.
| PAYC | PAYX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 63% | 7 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 51% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PAYC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while PAYX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PAYC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PAYX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PAYC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAYX’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PAYC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PAYX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PAYC (@Packaged Software) experienced а -9.52% price change this week, while PAYX (@Packaged Software) price change was +0.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -2.44%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.86%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.03%.
Reported Earning Dates
PAYC is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
PAYX is expected to report earnings on Dec 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-2.44% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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PAYC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PAYC has been closely correlated with GEN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PAYC jumps, then GEN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PAYC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYC | 100% | +0.63% | ||
| GEN - PAYC | 67% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| ADP - PAYC | 66% Closely correlated | +1.12% | ||
| PAYX - PAYC | 66% Loosely correlated | +1.25% | ||
| WDAY - PAYC | 63% Loosely correlated | -0.69% | ||
| CLSK - PAYC | 62% Loosely correlated | -4.92% | ||
More | ||||
PAYX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PAYX has been closely correlated with ADP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PAYX jumps, then ADP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PAYX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX | 100% | +1.25% | ||
| ADP - PAYX | 87% Closely correlated | +1.12% | ||
| PCTY - PAYX | 72% Closely correlated | +0.67% | ||
| PAYC - PAYX | 72% Closely correlated | +0.63% | ||
| ROP - PAYX | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.60% | ||
| INTU - PAYX | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.65% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| RCLY | 103.34 | N/A | N/A |
| Reckoner Bbb B Clo Annual ETF | |||
| TFLR | 50.36 | -0.05 | -0.10% |
| T. Rowe Price Floating Rate ETF (TFLR) | |||
| DXIV | 72.29 | -0.41 | -0.56% |
| Dimensional International Vector Equity ETF (DXIV) | |||
| VEU | 80.92 | -0.55 | -0.68% |
| Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund (VEU) | |||
| CGGG | 26.69 | -0.29 | -1.07% |
| Capital Group U.S. Large Growth ETF | |||