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ADP vs PAYC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Automatic Data Processing (ADP) vs. Paycom Software (PAYC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADP is the scaled, diversified incumbent in payroll and human capital management (HCM), while PAYC is a smaller, higher-margin, pure cloud-software specialist.
- ADP generated roughly $21.9 billion in revenue in its latest fiscal year, about ten times Paycom's trailing revenue of roughly $2.1 billion.
- Both companies are investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI), but their market positioning and risk profiles differ materially.
- PAYC has shown sharper recent momentum and an aggressive buyback program, while ADP offers more diversified cash flows and a larger dividend.
- PAYC's share price remains volatile and is still below its multi-year highs, whereas ADP has demonstrated steadier long-term trend consistency.
Introduction
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Paycom Software (PAYC) both operate in the payroll and human capital management (HCM) industry, yet they represent very different investment profiles. ADP is the largest U.S. payroll processor, serving more than 1.1 million clients across employer services, professional employer organization (PEO) services, retirement services, and international operations. Paycom is a mid-cap cloud-software provider known for its single-database architecture and employee self-service tools. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a mature, diversified, dividend-paying franchise against a faster-growing, higher-margin software pure-play, particularly as both navigate the rapid adoption of AI across the workplace.
ADP Overview and Recent Performance
Automatic Data Processing is the dominant player in U.S. payroll and HCM services. In its most recent fiscal year, total revenue reached approximately $21.9 billion, up 7% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising 11%. Growth has been broad-based across its Employer Services, PEO, retirement services, and international segments. Notably, ADP's Retirement Services business surpassed $1 billion in annual revenue for the first time, while Employer Services retention held near record levels at about 92%.
Recent market activity has reflected growing investor attention on ADP's AI initiatives. The company has expanded its "ADP Assist" AI agents across payroll, benefits, HR, and compliance, reporting that millions of active users engaged in millions of conversations with the tool. Its "Lyric" enterprise platform grew its live client base by more than 90% year over year, and its internal AI service platform, "The Zone," has been rolled out to a large share of its service workforce. ADP also benefits from interest income on the billions of dollars in client funds it holds, which supports profitability. After a period of weakness earlier in the year, ADP shares rebounded strongly over recent months and have outpaced the broader market over a recent six-month span, though they remain below prior 52-week highs.
PAYC Overview and Recent Performance
Paycom Software is a cloud-based HCM provider that sells payroll, talent management, time and labor, and HR software, distinguished by a single-database architecture and tools such as "Beti" (employee-driven payroll) and "IWant" (its AI-powered assistant). In its most recent quarter, revenue rose about 10% year over year to approximately $531 million, and management raised full-year guidance to between $2.197 billion and $2.212 billion, implying 7% to 8% growth, with an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin near 46%.
Paycom's recent performance has been shaped by an aggressive capital-return strategy. The company repurchased nearly 11 million shares for roughly $1.4 billion in the first half of the year, reducing its share count by about 20%, and authorized a new $2 billion buyback program. Paycom's stock has been exceptionally volatile: after trading near its 52-week low earlier in the year, shares rebounded sharply in recent months and now sit near their 52-week high. Even so, Paycom's longer-term total return remains negative over a multi-year horizon, reflecting a substantial prior drawdown. Sentiment has improved as investors focus on margin expansion, cost savings, and the monetization of AI features.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two stocks is scale versus specialization. ADP's diversified model spans employer services, PEO offerings, retirement services, and international payroll, generating float income on client funds and supporting a growing dividend. Paycom concentrates on a single cloud platform targeting small-to-mid-sized employers, which yields a much higher adjusted EBITDA margin but a narrower revenue base.
Growth drivers also diverge. ADP is scaling AI across its massive installed base and expanding enterprise adoption of Lyric, which supports steady, single-digit revenue growth and incremental margin gains. Paycom is leaning on automation-driven cost savings, new product rollouts, and share repurchases to lift profitability even as revenue growth has decelerated from its historical pace.
On risk, both face a slower U.S. labor market and interest-rate sensitivity, but the exposures differ. ADP's float income is directly tied to client fund balances and yields, while Paycom's elevated share-count reduction and debt-funded buybacks add financial leverage. In terms of market sentiment, ADP is viewed as a defensive, quality compounder, whereas Paycom is seen as a higher-beta recovery story with strong recent momentum but a more volatile multi-year record.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ADP for its steadier trend consistency, diversified revenue streams, and more stable relative positioning, which tend to align with lower-volatility, trend-following strategies. PAYC has demonstrated stronger near-term momentum, margin expansion, and capital-return catalysts that may appeal to more aggressive, momentum-oriented bots, but its wider price swings and longer-term underperformance introduce greater uncertainty. The final selection would depend on the specific bot's timeframe and strategy, and should be viewed as a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADP is a Buy and PAYC is a Hold.
ADP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026
ADP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 29 of 45 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADP as a result. In 41 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADP just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The 10-day moving average for ADP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +2.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADP advanced for three days, in 160 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
ADP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADP entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ADP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (19.349) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.402). P/E Ratio (26.846) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.914). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.446) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.020) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
Momentum Indicator for PAYC turns positive, indicating new upward trend
PAYC saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 80 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 56 of the 80 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PAYC just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where PAYC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +4.24% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAYC advanced for three days, in 208 of 329 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAYC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
PAYC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PAYC entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PAYC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (20.688) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.402). P/E Ratio (27.671) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.914). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.167) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.549) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PAYC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
ADP | PAYC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 25 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 37 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PAYC's Valuation (84) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADP (86) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that PAYC’s stock grew similarly to ADP’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Profit vs Risk Rating (50) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PAYC (100) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's SMR Rating (17) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (25) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
PAYC's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADP (11) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that PAYC’s stock grew similarly to ADP’s over the last 12 months.
PAYC's P/E Growth Rating (37) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADP (47) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that PAYC’s stock grew similarly to ADP’s over the last 12 months.
| ADP | PAYC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 87% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 28 days ago 47% | 22 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 75% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while PAYC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ADP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PAYC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAYC’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PAYC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ADP (@Packaged Software) experienced а +5.06% price change this week, while PAYC (@Packaged Software) price change was +9.21% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was +1.69%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.22%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.65%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADP is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
PAYC is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (+1.69% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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PAYC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PAYC has been closely correlated with PAYX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PAYC jumps, then PAYX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PAYC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYC | 100% | -0.50% | ||
| PAYX - PAYC | 68% Closely correlated | -0.11% | ||
| GEN - PAYC | 67% Closely correlated | +0.17% | ||
| ADP - PAYC | 67% Closely correlated | +0.60% | ||
| WDAY - PAYC | 63% Loosely correlated | -0.50% | ||
| CLSK - PAYC | 62% Loosely correlated | +3.80% | ||
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