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ADP vs PAYC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Automatic Data Processing (ADP) vs. Paycom Software (PAYC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADP recently reported strong Q3 fiscal 2026 results, beating revenue and EPS (earnings per share) estimates while raising full-year guidance, supporting recent stock gains.
- PAYC shares have shown a modest rebound in recent weeks amid anticipation for Q1 2026 earnings, but remain volatile after prior guidance concerns.
- Both stocks exhibit similar YTD performance around 16-17%, but ADP's larger market cap ($85B vs. $7B) and lower volatility provide greater stability.
- ADP trades at a P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of 20, compared to PAYC's 16, reflecting differing growth expectations.
- Tickeron's AI robots highlight high-performing strategies across sectors, offering tools for traders evaluating relative performance in HR and payroll stocks.
Introduction
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Paycom Software (PAYC) operate in the competitive human capital management (HCM) sector, providing payroll, HR, and compliance solutions to businesses worldwide. This stock comparison analyzes their recent market positioning, performance trends, and key drivers amid evolving labor market dynamics and technological advancements. Investors seeking stable dividend payers may lean toward ADP, while growth-oriented traders might eye PAYC's software focus. Understanding their contrasts aids in portfolio diversification within the HCM space, where efficiency tools gain traction in uncertain economic conditions.
ADP Overview and Recent Performance
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is a leading provider of cloud-based HCM solutions, including payroll processing, benefits administration, and talent management for over one million clients globally. In recent market activity, ADP shares traded around $214, reflecting a year-to-date gain of approximately 16% and positioning within a 52-week range of $188-$330. Sentiment has improved following robust Q3 fiscal 2026 results announced in late April, with revenue of $5.94 billion (up 7% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $3.37, surpassing estimates. The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS growth outlook to 10-11%, driven by strong demand in its Employer and Professional segments and AI-enhanced offerings. This has bolstered relative performance, with shares rebounding amid broader market rotations toward quality names.
PAYC Overview and Recent Performance
Paycom Software (PAYC) delivers an all-in-one cloud platform for HR, payroll, and time management, emphasizing employee self-service to reduce administrative burdens. Shares recently hovered near $132, delivering about 17% YTD returns within a wide 52-week range of $105-$268, indicative of higher volatility. In recent weeks, the stock crossed its 50-day moving average, signaling short-term momentum ahead of Q1 2026 earnings due early May. Prior Q4 fiscal 2025 results met expectations but included cautious revenue guidance, contributing to earlier pressures. Positive developments include recognition as a top workforce management provider, supporting gradual sentiment recovery amid focus on automation features.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ADP and PAYC both thrive in HCM but differ in scale and approach: ADP's integrated services model serves a vast client base with recurring revenue stability, while PAYC's unified software platform targets mid-market efficiency gains. Growth drivers contrast sharply—ADP benefits from steady organic expansion and M&A (mergers and acquisitions), versus PAYC's higher potential from product innovation but sensitivity to client retention. Recent momentum favors ADP post-earnings strength, while PAYC exhibits rebound potential yet higher beta risk. Sector exposure is similar, but ADP offers a 2%+ dividend yield absent in PAYC, balancing trade-offs in stability versus upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward ADP due to its consistent trend strength, earnings beats, and upward guidance revisions, positioning it favorably amid market uncertainties. PAYC shows recovery signals but carries elevated volatility risks. This assessment reflects probabilistic patterns in recent data, not guarantees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADP is a StrongBuy and PAYC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePAYC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ADP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PAYC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAYC’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PAYC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ADP (@Packaged Software) experienced а -1.73% price change this week, while PAYC (@Packaged Software) price change was -2.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -2.27%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADP is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
PAYC is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-2.27% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
| ADP | PAYC | ADP / PAYC | |
| Capitalization | 90.4B | 6.27B | 1,441% |
| EBITDA | 6.7B | 838M | 800% |
| Gain YTD | -10.660 | -15.126 | 70% |
| P/E Ratio | 21.10 | 15.57 | 136% |
| Revenue | 21.6B | 2.09B | 1,032% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 154M | - |
| Total Debt | 4.3B | 764M | 562% |
ADP | PAYC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 78 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 8 Undervalued | 15 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 25 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 84 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADP's Valuation (8) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (15) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Profit vs Risk Rating (74) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (100) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's SMR Rating (16) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (25) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (61) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's P/E Growth Rating (84) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (96) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
| ADP | PAYC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 44% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 41% | 4 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 40% | 4 days ago 83% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 52% | 4 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 52% | 6 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 48% | 12 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 87% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 44% | 4 days ago 54% |
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