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ADP vs PAYC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Automatic Data Processing (ADP) vs. Paycom Software (PAYC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADP has shown stronger recent momentum with multiple analyst price target upgrades in July 2026 and a 23% gain over the prior three months.
- PAYC has experienced greater volatility and underperformance over the trailing twelve months compared to ADP, though it posted intraday gains in late July sessions.
- Both companies operate in the human capital management (HCM) space, with ADP offering broader payroll and HR solutions and PAYC focusing on cloud-based unified HCM platforms.
- ADP faces an earnings release on July 29, 2026, which may influence near-term sentiment, while PAYC has drawn mixed analyst ratings with average targets implying potential upside.
- Relative performance favors ADP in recent market activity, driven by stabilized interest rates benefiting its client funds and consistent sector positioning.
- Market sentiment reflects ADP’s greater stability versus PAYC’s higher sensitivity to growth projections in a competitive HCM environment.
Introduction
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Paycom Software (PAYC) are established players in the human capital management sector, providing payroll, HR, and related software solutions to businesses. This comparison examines their recent stock behavior, business models, and market positioning in the current environment. Institutional investors, swing traders, and portfolio managers evaluating HCM exposure may find the analysis relevant for assessing relative stability, growth drivers, and risk profiles amid evolving economic conditions and sector dynamics.
ADP Overview and Recent Performance
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) delivers comprehensive payroll, human resources, and talent management services globally. In recent weeks, the stock has demonstrated resilience, with notable gains including a 23% advance over three months and multiple analyst price target increases in July 2026. Factors supporting performance include stabilized interest rates aiding earnings from client funds and anticipation surrounding the company’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results scheduled for July 29. Market activity reflects positive sentiment from these catalysts, positioning ADP with relatively consistent trend behavior amid broader technology sector movements.
PAYC Overview and Recent Performance
Paycom Software (PAYC) specializes in cloud-based human capital management platforms that integrate payroll, HR, and talent functions for small to mid-sized enterprises. Recent market activity has shown volatility, with the stock posting intraday advances such as a nearly 5% gain in one late-July session yet facing broader pressure over the trailing twelve months. Analyst coverage remains mixed, with average price targets suggesting potential upside, though growth projections have encountered headwinds from competitive pressures and macroeconomic factors. Sentiment in recent weeks reflects cautious positioning relative to peers in the HCM space.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) maintains a diversified business model with scale advantages in payroll processing and client fund interest income, contrasting with Paycom Software’s (PAYC) more specialized, cloud-native HCM focus that emphasizes user experience for smaller clients. Growth drivers for ADP include steady recurring revenue and margin expansion, while PAYC relies on platform adoption and feature innovation. Recent momentum has favored ADP through analyst upgrades and earnings anticipation, versus PAYC’s greater price swings and longer-term underperformance. Risk factors differ with ADP offering relative stability and PAYC exhibiting higher sensitivity to labor market trends and valuation multiples. Sector exposure overlaps in HCM, yet market sentiment currently tilts toward ADP’s defensive characteristics amid economic uncertainty.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, recent analyst support, and earnings catalysts, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to ADP over PAYC for relative stability and positioning in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADP is a Hold and PAYC is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePAYC’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ADP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PAYC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAYC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PAYC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ADP (@Packaged Software) experienced а +0.60% price change this week, while PAYC (@Packaged Software) price change was +1.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -0.33%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.65%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.46%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADP is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
PAYC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-0.33% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
| ADP | PAYC | ADP / PAYC | |
| Capitalization | 108B | 9.83B | 1,099% |
| EBITDA | 6.7B | 838M | 800% |
| Gain YTD | 7.804 | 37.626 | 21% |
| P/E Ratio | 24.95 | 23.08 | 108% |
| Revenue | 21.6B | 2.09B | 1,032% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 154M | - |
| Total Debt | 4.3B | 764M | 562% |
ADP | PAYC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 85 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 10 Undervalued | 17 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 27 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 68 | 74 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADP's Valuation (10) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (17) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Profit vs Risk Rating (62) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PAYC (100) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's SMR Rating (17) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (27) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
PAYC's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Packaged Software industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ADP (42) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that PAYC’s stock grew somewhat faster than ADP’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's P/E Growth Rating (68) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (74) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
| ADP | PAYC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 51% | 12 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 47% | 4 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 56% |
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ADP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADP has been closely correlated with PAYX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ADP jumps, then PAYX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADP | 100% | -1.18% | ||
| PAYX - ADP | 87% Closely correlated | -2.70% | ||
| PCTY - ADP | 75% Closely correlated | -2.90% | ||
| PAYC - ADP | 67% Closely correlated | -2.46% | ||
| SSNC - ADP | 64% Loosely correlated | -0.66% | ||
| MANH - ADP | 64% Loosely correlated | -1.76% | ||
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