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ADP vs PAYC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Automatic Data Processing (ADP) vs. Paycom Software (PAYC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale vs. growth: ADP (Automatic Data Processing) is a diversified, roughly $120 billion payroll and human capital management (HCM) franchise, while PAYC (Paycom Software) is a founder-led, single-database cloud HCM software maker with a market value near $12 billion.
- Risk profiles diverge: ADP behaves like a defensive, dividend-paying compounder, while PAYC carries higher volatility and more concentrated, momentum-driven price action.
- Recent momentum favors PAYC: PAYC has delivered a stronger relative performance over recent months, while ADP has posted steadier, more moderate gains.
- Valuation and sentiment: ADP trades at a higher earnings multiple with a "Hold"-leaning consensus, whereas analyst views on PAYC are more divided following its sharp run-up.
- Different investor appeal: ADP tends to suit income- and stability-oriented investors, while PAYC attracts those seeking growth and turnaround momentum.
- For more detail on each name's major developments and daily price action, explore the ADP Major News and ADP Today's Price Move pages, along with the PAYC Major News and PAYC Today's Price Move pages.
- Readers looking for curated, data-driven trading strategies can also explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) and Paycom Software (PAYC) both operate in the human capital management and payroll software market, yet they represent very different investment profiles. ADP is a mature, diversified giant that processes payroll for roughly one in six U.S. workers, while Paycom is a nimbler, founder-led software vendor built on a single unified database. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing scale and stability against growth and momentum, as well as for traders assessing relative performance and market positioning within the same sector. The two names offer a useful contrast in valuation, volatility, and how each is responding to artificial intelligence (AI) trends reshaping workforce software.
ADP Overview and Recent Performance
Automatic Data Processing is one of the world's largest providers of payroll, HCM, and human resources (HR) outsourcing services, serving more than one million clients and roughly 42 million workers across 140 countries. Its Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO) segments generated approximately $22 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue, reflecting the company's deep scale and recurring client relationships.
In recent weeks, ADP has traded in the low $300s, supported by solid fundamentals, a growing dividend (around a 2% yield), and a relatively low beta that signals below-average volatility. Recent quarterly results showed revenue growth near 7% and stronger adjusted earnings, aided by margin expansion and steady new business bookings. Sentiment has also been shaped by ADP's push into AI-driven tools such as ADP Assist, which analysts view as supportive of client retention and efficiency. At the same time, employment trends, interest-rate expectations, and valuation have kept the analyst consensus near a "Hold," with several price targets sitting at or below the current share price.
PAYC Overview and Recent Performance
Paycom Software provides a unified, cloud-based payroll and HCM platform that manages the employee lifecycle from hiring to retirement on a single database. The company differentiates itself through automation, including its Beti payroll product and the "IWant" AI-driven assistant, and it is led by founder and CEO Chad Richison. Trailing twelve-month revenue stands near $2.1 billion, a fraction of ADP's scale but growing at a faster rate.
Recent market activity has been notably strong for PAYC. The stock has climbed sharply over the past several months and recently traded near 52-week highs in the mid-$270s, reflecting improved earnings, raised full-year guidance, and aggressive share repurchases that reduced the outstanding share count. Quarterly revenue growth of nearly 10% and expanding margins have reinforced the turnaround narrative. However, this momentum has produced a wide range of analyst views, from bullish price-target increases to a more cautious underperform rating, underscoring debate about whether the valuation already reflects the recovery.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a library of hundreds of AI trading bots that monitor and trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own strategy, timeframe, performance history, and statistical profile. Because market conditions change constantly, only a subset of these bots is well-suited to the current environment at any given time. The Trending AI Robots page curates the strategies that are currently performing most effectively, helping traders identify the bots best aligned with today's market dynamics rather than sorting through the full catalog manually. For those who want to see how algorithmic approaches are positioning across names like the ones in this comparison, exploring the Trending AI Robots section is a practical starting point.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies sell payroll and HCM solutions, their business models differ meaningfully. ADP blends software with extensive outsourcing and a large PEO business, generating diversified, annuity-like revenue and funding a consistent dividend. Paycom relies on a pure software-as-a-service (SaaS) model with a single-database architecture and heavy investment in automation and AI, which supports faster growth but narrower diversification.
On growth and momentum, PAYC has been the clear recent leader, with its share price roughly doubling over the past several months on improved execution and buybacks. ADP has advanced more gradually, consistent with its defensive character. Risk factors also differ: ADP is sensitive to macroeconomic employment cycles, interest rates, and a premium valuation, while Paycom faces competitive pressure from larger rivals, execution risk around its automation strategy, and elevated volatility after a rapid rally. Sector exposure is similar, but market sentiment toward the two stocks currently sits at opposite ends of the stability-versus-momentum spectrum.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and catalyst positioning, Tickeron's AI framework would likely lean toward PAYC for its stronger, more consistent upward trend over recent months and a visible catalyst path tied to margin expansion and buybacks. That said, ADP offers superior stability, lower volatility, and a dependable income stream, attributes that algorithmic models often weigh favorably in risk-off conditions. The AI verdict is therefore probabilistic rather than definitive: PAYC appears better positioned on momentum and growth characteristics, while ADP presents a steadier, lower-risk profile that may be favored when market conditions favor defensiveness.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADP is a Buy and PAYC is a Hold.
ADP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026
ADP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 24 of 44 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADP as a result. In 42 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADP just turned positive on November 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The 10-day moving average for ADP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +3.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADP advanced for three days, in 153 of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 112 of 252 cases where ADP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 44%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ADP moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 17 of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 46%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
ADP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ADP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (19.930) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.906). P/E Ratio (27.653) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.554). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.446) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.020) is also within normal values, averaging (70.383).
PAYC's RSI Indicator peaks and leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PAYC moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 23 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 20 of the 23 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PAYC as a result. In 63 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PAYC turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 79%.
PAYC moved below its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAYC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +2.06% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAYC advanced for three days, in 207 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
PAYC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 129 of 227 cases where PAYC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 57%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PAYC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (18.716) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.906). P/E Ratio (25.034) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.554). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.167) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.069) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.549) is also within normal values, averaging (70.383).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PAYC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
ADP | PAYC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 86 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 25 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 7 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 31 | 21 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PAYC's Valuation (83) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADP (86) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that PAYC’s stock grew similarly to ADP’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's Profit vs Risk Rating (46) in the Data Processing Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PAYC (100) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew somewhat faster than PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
ADP's SMR Rating (17) in the Data Processing Services industry is in the same range as PAYC (25) in the Packaged Software industry. This means that ADP’s stock grew similarly to PAYC’s over the last 12 months.
PAYC's Price Growth Rating (7) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADP (12) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that PAYC’s stock grew similarly to ADP’s over the last 12 months.
PAYC's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADP (31) in the Data Processing Services industry. This means that PAYC’s stock grew similarly to ADP’s over the last 12 months.
| ADP | PAYC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 87% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 49% | 10 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 57% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADP’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while PAYC’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ADP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PAYC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADP’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAYC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PAYC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ADP (@Packaged Software) experienced а +3.19% price change this week, while PAYC (@Packaged Software) price change was -9.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -2.44%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.86%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.03%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADP is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
PAYC is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-2.44% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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ADP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADP has been closely correlated with PAYX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ADP jumps, then PAYX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADP | 100% | +1.12% | ||
| PAYX - ADP | 86% Closely correlated | +1.25% | ||
| PCTY - ADP | 78% Closely correlated | +0.67% | ||
| ROP - ADP | 67% Closely correlated | +0.60% | ||
| PAYC - ADP | 66% Closely correlated | +0.63% | ||
| MANH - ADP | 65% Loosely correlated | +2.31% | ||
More | ||||
PAYC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PAYC has been closely correlated with GEN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PAYC jumps, then GEN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PAYC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYC | 100% | +0.63% | ||
| GEN - PAYC | 67% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| ADP - PAYC | 66% Closely correlated | +1.12% | ||
| PAYX - PAYC | 66% Loosely correlated | +1.25% | ||
| WDAY - PAYC | 63% Loosely correlated | -0.69% | ||
| CLSK - PAYC | 62% Loosely correlated | -4.92% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| RCLY | 103.34 | N/A | N/A |
| Reckoner Bbb B Clo Annual ETF | |||
| TFLR | 50.36 | -0.05 | -0.10% |
| T. Rowe Price Floating Rate ETF (TFLR) | |||
| DXIV | 72.29 | -0.41 | -0.56% |
| Dimensional International Vector Equity ETF (DXIV) | |||
| VEU | 80.92 | -0.55 | -0.68% |
| Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund (VEU) | |||
| CGGG | 26.69 | -0.29 | -1.07% |
| Capital Group U.S. Large Growth ETF | |||