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MPC vs PBF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs. PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is the largest independent U.S. refiner and an S&P 500 constituent, combining refining, marketing, and midstream exposure through its MPLX affiliate.
- PBF Energy (PBF) operates six refineries with roughly one million barrels per day of capacity and has delivered a stronger one-year price gain as its Martinez refinery returned to service.
- Both companies have benefited from elevated refining margins (crack spreads), driven by constrained global fuel supply, but their scale, balance sheets, and risk profiles differ meaningfully.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: The AI framework currently favors MPC for its more consistent trend, larger scale, and diversified cash-flow base, while acknowledging PBF's stronger near-term momentum and turnaround catalysts.
- Explore more details on MPC Major News, MPC Today's Price Move, PBF Major News, and PBF Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI-powered strategies are navigating this environment, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Both Marathon Petroleum and PBF Energy are independent refiners riding one of the strongest downcycle-to-upcycle swings in recent memory, making a direct stock comparison particularly timely. Investors weighing scale and stability against turnaround-driven momentum will find these two names instructive: MPC offers the largest U.S. refining system and diversified midstream cash flows, while PBF pairs a complex coastal refining network with an aggressive balance-sheet repair story. This comparison examines recent performance, business drivers, and market positioning to help traders and long-term investors assess which stock better fits the current environment.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates the largest refining system among independent American refiners, alongside a substantial marketing network and a meaningful stake in midstream operator MPLX. This integrated structure adds a steadier, fee-based earnings layer beneath the more volatile refining business. In recent weeks, MPC shares have climbed sharply, extending a rally that has seen the stock roughly triple over the past year on the strength of widening crack spreads — the difference between crude oil costs and the prices of refined products such as gasoline and diesel.
Recent market activity has been driven by constrained global refining capacity, with disruptions in the Middle East and damage to Russian infrastructure keeping several million barrels per day of capacity offline. This has lifted margins and pushed analyst estimates higher; Marathon Petroleum's recent quarterly results exceeded consensus on strong refining-and-marketing margin capture, and the company has continued returning substantial cash to shareholders. Analysts have responded with upward revisions, though elevated expectations around a late-year earnings report have introduced some near-term volatility.
PBF Overview and Recent Performance
PBF Energy is one of the largest independent refiners in North America, operating six refineries across the East Coast, Gulf Coast, West Coast, and Mid-Continent regions with roughly one million barrels per day of aggregate capacity and a high complexity index that supports flexible crude slates. In recent weeks, PBF has extended a powerful rally, outpacing the broader refining industry over the trailing year as operational recovery and cost discipline combined with favorable margins.
The restart of the Martinez refinery in California after an earlier fire restored a key part of PBF's West Coast capacity just as regional product supplies tightened. The company has also made notable progress repairing its balance sheet, reducing net debt dramatically and moving to a net cash position, while its Refining Business Improvement program has delivered meaningful annualized cost savings. Recent quarterly results beat consensus estimates, supported by strong throughput and elevated benchmark cracks, though environmental-compliance costs and scheduled maintenance remain factors that can temper margin capture.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies are refiners, their market positioning differs in important ways. MPC derives stability from scale, S&P 500 membership, and a diversified midstream stake that smooths earnings across the refining cycle. PBF, by contrast, is more purely a refining play, giving it higher operating leverage to crack spreads — a benefit in rising markets and a risk when margins normalize.
On momentum, PBF has posted the stronger trailing-year relative performance, aided by the Martinez restart and debt reduction, which have drawn investor attention. However, its momentum score has softened after the sharp run, and its valuation sits near the top of its own five-year range even as it trades at a discount to the industry. MPC offers a more balanced risk profile, with steadier cash generation and analyst support, but faces the challenge of very high earnings expectations. Risk factors for both include margin normalization, environmental-compliance costs, and unplanned refinery downtime.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, scale, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI framework currently leans toward MPC as the more favorable of the two. Its larger, more diversified system, midstream-backed cash flows, and steadier earnings trajectory tend to register as more consistent signals in a momentum-sensitive model. PBF offers compelling catalysts — restored operations, cost savings, and a transformed balance sheet — and has delivered stronger recent momentum, but its higher operating leverage and execution sensitivity introduce greater variability. In probabilistic terms, the AI framework favors MPC for its combination of durable scale and relative trend stability, while recognizing PBF as a higher-beta alternative.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a StrongBuy and PBF is a Hold.
MPC in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
MPC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 22 of 28 cases where MPC's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for MPC's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPC advanced for three days, in 288 of 373 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 269 of 351 cases where MPC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MPC as a result. In 44 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MPC turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
MPC moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 40, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.780) is normal, around the industry mean (4.822). P/E Ratio (13.592) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.083). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.062) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PBF's RSI Oscillator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for PBF moved out of overbought territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 33 of the 42 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PBF as a result. In 52 of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PBF turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
PBF moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PBF crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PBF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 45 of 56 cases where PBF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +6.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PBF advanced for three days, in 271 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
PBF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 270 of 315 cases where PBF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 86%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 40, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PBF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.344) is normal, around the industry mean (4.822). P/E Ratio (6.277) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.083). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.190) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.062) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.260) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MPC | PBF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 72 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 47 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 33 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 35 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 90 | 86 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (47) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MPC (88). This means that PBF’s stock grew somewhat faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (33). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (41). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (1) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PBF (35). This means that MPC’s stock grew somewhat faster than PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's P/E Growth Rating (86) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (90). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PBF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 77% | 7 days ago 84% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 9 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 86% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while PBF’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PBF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PBF’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PBF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -10.91% price change this week, while PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -0.90% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -5.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.11%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
PBF is expected to report earnings on Feb 18, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-5.80% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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PBF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBF has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBF jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF | 100% | -6.67% | ||
| VLO - PBF | 78% Closely correlated | -5.76% | ||
| DINO - PBF | 78% Closely correlated | -7.75% | ||
| DK - PBF | 78% Closely correlated | -7.61% | ||
| PARR - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | -2.27% | ||
| MPC - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | -8.11% | ||
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