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MPC vs PBF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs. PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MPC and PBF are U.S. refiners riding a sharp upswing in refining margins driven by global supply disruptions, but they differ sharply in scale and diversification.
- Marathon Petroleum is the largest U.S. refiner by volume, while PBF Energy is a smaller, more focused independent refiner with roughly one-third of MPC's throughput capacity.
- MPC's majority stake in midstream operator MPLX provides steadier, fee-based cash flow that softens refining cyclicality, an advantage PBF lacks.
- PBF has demonstrated stronger balance-sheet repair, cutting net debt by more than 60% in a recent quarter, and carries a more aggressive cost-savings program.
- Both stocks have posted triple-digit year-to-date gains, but PBF's smaller size and higher leverage to margins generally make it more volatile.
Introduction
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) and PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) are two of the most closely watched names in U.S. downstream energy, and both have surged in tandem as global refining margins hit multi-year highs. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors seeking to understand how two companies in the same sector can diverge on size, diversification, and risk despite sharing the same macro tailwind. Because both are cyclical refiners, their relative performance, market positioning, and sensitivity to crack spreads matter as much as the broader industry backdrop. The comparison below weighs recent momentum, operating leverage, and balance-sheet strength to help readers assess where each stock stands in the current environment.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is the largest refiner in the United States by volume, operating a nationwide network with total throughput near three million barrels per day (bpd) alongside marketing and renewable diesel operations. A defining feature of MPC is its majority ownership of MPLX, a midstream master limited partnership (MLP) that owns pipelines, processing, and logistics assets. This stake adds fee-based earnings that diversify MPC beyond the volatile refining segment.
Recent market activity has been exceptionally strong. The stock has more than doubled in 2026, trading near all-time highs, as disruptions to Middle East refining capacity and the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed refining margins to multi-year records. Marathon reported refining and marketing margin of roughly $36 per barrel in its most recent quarter, up from about $17.58 a year earlier, with refineries running near 94% utilization. Analysts have lifted price targets accordingly, and the company has expanded share repurchases while continuing to invest in jet-fuel and yield-improvement projects. The main cautionary theme is valuation: after such a run, the stock's premium to its own history leaves less room for margin normalization.
PBF Overview and Recent Performance
PBF Energy Inc. is one of the largest independent refiners in North America, operating six refineries across the East Coast, Gulf Coast, West Coast, and Mid-Continent with combined capacity of roughly one million bpd. Unlike MPC, PBF is a pure-play refiner without a large midstream affiliate, making its earnings more directly tied to crack spreads and regional fuel balances. It also holds a 50% interest in the St. Bernard Renewables joint venture focused on renewable diesel.
In recent weeks, PBF has also posted dramatic gains, rising well over 100% year to date. Its most recent quarter swung to a substantial profit from a year-earlier loss, helped by the full restart of its Martinez refinery on the West Coast and a company-wide gross refining margin that climbed sharply year over year. PBF has complemented the favorable cycle with its Refining Business Improvement (RBI) cost program, which aims to deliver more than $350 million in run-rate savings by the end of 2026, and it reduced net debt by over 60% in the quarter. Still, PBF's smaller footprint and coastal exposure mean its results can swing more on regional dynamics and renewable-fuel compliance costs.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between MPC and PBF is scale and structure. MPC operates roughly three times PBF's refining throughput and pairs that scale with the steady, fee-based cash flows of its MPLX midstream stake, which buffers earnings when refining margins retreat. PBF, by contrast, is a more concentrated bet on refining economics, with greater sensitivity to crack spreads and coastal fuel imbalances.
Growth drivers also differ. MPC's capital program emphasizes high-return refining projects such as jet-fuel flexibility and yield improvements, layered on MPLX's natural gas and natural gas liquids expansion. PBF's story leans on operational recovery—notably the Martinez restart—and structural cost savings from its RBI initiative, which is designed to lift returns even in softer margin environments.
On risk, both face refining cyclicality, regulatory costs, and the potential for margin normalization as geopolitical disruptions ease. PBF carries added exposure through environmental compliance costs and its reliance on coastal markets that are structurally short refining capacity. MPC's larger balance sheet and midstream diversification provide comparatively greater stability, but its valuation now prices in much of the current upcycle. In terms of market sentiment, both names have seen estimate revisions rise sharply, yet the market appears to be demanding continued execution from each after their substantial rallies.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward MPC for its more diversified earnings base and steadier trend profile, while acknowledging that PBF offers higher operating leverage to the current refining cycle. MPC's integration with MPLX and its scale generally translate into a smoother, more persistent trend, which tends to align with stability-oriented AI signals. PBF's momentum and cost-improvement story are compelling, but its smaller footprint and greater margin sensitivity introduce more variability. Ultimately, the AI's preference would reflect a probabilistic assessment favoring MPC on stability and diversification, with PBF remaining an attractive but higher-beta candidate when refining conditions stay constructive.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a Hold and PBF is a Hold.
MPC's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MPC turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where MPC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MPC as a result. In 66 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +5.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MPC advanced for three days, in 288 of 373 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 255 of 339 cases where MPC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MPC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
MPC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MPC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 39, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.734) is normal, around the industry mean (46.814). P/E Ratio (13.503) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.488). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Aroon Indicator for PBF shows an upward move is likely
PBF's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on September 15, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 300 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 261 of the 300 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PBF as a result. In 57 of 72 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PBF just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where PBF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +8.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PBF advanced for three days, in 264 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PBF moved out of overbought territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 33 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 79%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PBF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
PBF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 39, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 27 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.376) is normal, around the industry mean (46.814). P/E Ratio (6.520) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.488). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.190) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.260) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PBF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MPC | PBF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 37 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 66 Overvalued | 27 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 3 | 24 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 21 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 93 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (27) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MPC (66). This means that PBF’s stock grew somewhat faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (24). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (21) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (41). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (1) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PBF (34). This means that MPC’s stock grew somewhat faster than PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's P/E Growth Rating (87) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (93). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PBF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 59% | 1 day ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 87% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while PBF’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PBF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PBF’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PBF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +2.93% price change this week, while PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -2.63% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -0.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +50.07%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PBF is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-0.47% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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PBF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBF has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBF jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF | 100% | -2.82% | ||
| VLO - PBF | 79% Closely correlated | -3.42% | ||
| DINO - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | -2.34% | ||
| DK - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | -2.65% | ||
| PSX - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | -2.72% | ||
| PARR - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | -5.56% | ||
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