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MPC vs PBF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs. PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MPC and PBF have delivered strong year-to-date gains, with PBF at approximately 60% and MPC at 52%, outperforming the broader market.
- MPC, the larger refiner by capacity and market cap ($72B vs. PBF's $5B), shows greater operational scale and stability in recent refining margins.
- PBF reported a Q1 adjusted loss but beat revenue estimates; refinery restart delays at Martinez tempered gains, while MPC anticipates robust Q1 earnings growth.
- Dividend yields favor PBF at 2.56% versus MPC's 1.59%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Recent analyst upgrades and momentum position MPC ahead in relative performance during volatile oil markets.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight energy sector bots with up to 76% returns, underscoring refining opportunities.
Introduction
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) and PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) are key players in the independent oil refining sector, processing crude into fuels amid fluctuating energy prices. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance, and market positioning, aiding traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing value in downstream energy. With refining margins under scrutiny from global supply dynamics, understanding relative strengths helps navigate sector volatility for short-term trades or longer-term allocations.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) operates one of the largest refining systems in the U.S., with about 3 million barrels per day (bpd) capacity, complemented by retail marketing via Speedway and midstream logistics. Shares trade around $246, within a 52-week range of $140-$256, reflecting resilience in recent market activity. Year-to-date gains of 52% outpace the S&P 500, driven by strong Q4 results with refining margins at $18.65 per barrel (up 44% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.07 beating estimates. Recent weeks saw a 12% rally on analyst upgrades and a $1.00 quarterly dividend declaration, boosting sentiment amid favorable crack spreads (refining profit margins). Upcoming Q1 earnings are projected to show 383% EPS growth, supporting upward momentum despite oil price swings.
PBF Overview and Recent Performance
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) focuses on independent refining with roughly 1 million bpd capacity across U.S. Gulf and West Coast facilities. Trading near $43 (52-week: $17-$52), it has achieved 60% year-to-date returns, leading refining peers. Recent quarters reflected challenges, including a Q1 adjusted loss of $0.88 per share (beating consensus by 10%) on $7.9B revenue, aided by insurance gains but pressured by Martinez refinery delays. A $0.275 dividend signals shareholder returns, yet stock dipped post-earnings due to restart uncertainties. Broader energy sentiment and volatile crude prices have influenced performance, with P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) at 11.35 indicating relative value versus peers.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates the top 25 performers from over 350 AI trading bots scanning thousands of tickers, spotlighting those best suited to current market conditions like sector rotations and volatility. These bots showcase diverse strategies—scalping (minutes), swing trading (days), or fundamentals—with standout stats: annualized returns up to 163%, win rates of 50-88%, profit factors to 7.12, and profit/drawdown ratios exceeding 17. Energy-themed bots, such as one on 18 energy and precious metals tickers, delivered 76% returns with 57% win rates over 60-minute timeframes. Traders can copy these automated signals across styles, from high-frequency TP/SL (take-profit/stop-loss) setups to longer holds, potentially enhancing exposure to refining momentum. Explore the page to match bots to your risk profile.
Head-to-Head Comparison
Both MPC and PBF thrive on refining crack spreads but differ in scale: MPC's 3M bpd versus PBF's 1M bpd yields cost efficiencies and diversified revenue from retail/midstream, reducing pure-play refining risk. Growth drivers include MPC's logistics stability versus PBF's asset optimization amid Gulf/West Coast exposures. Recent momentum favors MPC with 12% gains on upgrades, while PBF's post-earnings dip highlights operational risks like refinery outages. PBF offers higher dividend yield (2.56%) and lower P/E (11.35 vs. MPC's 18.62), trading at a discount but with higher beta (volatility). Sector-wide oil price sensitivity and margin compression pose shared risks, yet MPC's market cap edge ($72B) bolsters resilience and institutional appeal in sentiment shifts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward MPC for its consistent trend strength, superior scale advantages, and positive catalysts like earnings outlook and dividends. PBF's value metrics and YTD edge provide upside potential, but operational hiccups introduce higher near-term uncertainty. This probabilistic tilt reflects relative stability in refining volatility, aligning with AI pattern recognition in energy flows.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a Buy and PBF is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePBF’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PBF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PBF’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- PBF’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -1.42% price change this week, while PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -0.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -0.12%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
PBF is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-0.12% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| MPC | PBF | MPC / PBF | |
| Capitalization | 72.2B | 4.65B | 1,553% |
| EBITDA | 12.4B | 1.43B | 865% |
| Gain YTD | 53.402 | 47.007 | 114% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.28 | 10.37 | 157% |
| Revenue | 135B | 30.2B | 447% |
| Total Cash | 2.15B | 542M | 397% |
| Total Debt | 34.3B | 3.6B | 952% |
MPC | PBF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 65 Fair valued | 27 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 66 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 77 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 79 | 60 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (27) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MPC (65). This means that PBF’s stock grew somewhat faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PBF (66). This means that MPC’s stock grew somewhat faster than PBF’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (35) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PBF (77). This means that MPC’s stock grew somewhat faster than PBF’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (51). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's P/E Growth Rating (60) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (79). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PBF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 75% | 22 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 61% | 6 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 80% |
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