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MPC vs PBF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Marathon Petroleum (MPC) vs. PBF Energy (PBF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MPC and PBF operate in the oil refining sector and have benefited from strong refining margins in recent market activity.
- MPC has delivered approximately 29% gains over the past 30 days, supported by its larger scale and integrated midstream operations through MPLX.
- PBF reported robust second-quarter 2026 results with net income of $915 million, reflecting operational improvements including the Martinez refinery restart.
- MPC maintains a broader diversification profile compared to PBF's more concentrated refining focus.
- Recent performance for both stocks has outpaced broader market benchmarks amid favorable fuel market conditions.
- Market sentiment remains constructive for the sector, with upcoming earnings releases providing additional visibility.
Introduction
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and PBF Energy (PBF) represent two prominent players in the U.S. oil refining industry. This comparison examines their relative performance, business models, and positioning in the current market environment characterized by volatile energy prices and shifting supply dynamics. The analysis is particularly relevant for traders and investors seeking exposure to refining margins, sector-specific catalysts, and contrasts between a large integrated refiner and a more specialized independent operator. Market participants focused on relative value, momentum, and risk-adjusted opportunities within energy may find the distinctions between these two stocks informative for portfolio allocation decisions.
MPC Overview and Recent Performance
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is one of the largest petroleum refiners and marketers in the United States, with operations spanning refining, midstream logistics via its MPLX subsidiary, and retail marketing. In recent weeks, MPC shares have shown strong upward momentum, advancing roughly 29% over the trailing 30-day period amid tightening fuel markets and elevated refining margins. The stock's performance has been supported by favorable industry conditions, including geopolitical supply factors that have bolstered crack spreads. With a market capitalization exceeding $90 billion, MPC benefits from scale and diversification that provide relative stability compared to pure-play refiners. Upcoming second-quarter earnings on August 4 are expected to highlight continued operational strength, contributing to positive sentiment in recent market activity.
PBF Overview and Recent Performance
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) is an independent petroleum refiner focused on processing crude oil into transportation fuels and other products across multiple U.S. facilities. The company delivered strong second-quarter 2026 financial results, reporting net income of $915 million and adjusted metrics that significantly exceeded prior-year comparisons, aided by the completed restart of the Martinez refinery. In recent market activity, PBF shares have reflected broader sector gains, with year-to-date returns exceeding 170% as refining fundamentals improved. The stock trades with a smaller market capitalization relative to larger peers, contributing to higher volatility but also amplified upside during favorable margin environments. Operational enhancements and debt reduction initiatives have further supported sentiment in the recent period.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) operates with greater scale and vertical integration, incorporating midstream assets that provide earnings stability beyond pure refining cycles, whereas PBF Energy (PBF) maintains a more focused refining model that can lead to sharper swings tied directly to crack spreads and utilization rates. In recent momentum, MPC has posted steadier gains with lower relative volatility, while PBF has delivered outsized year-to-date appreciation amid strong quarterly results. Both companies benefit from the same sector tailwinds in refining margins, yet MPC’s larger balance sheet and diversification may moderate downside risk during margin contractions. Market sentiment reflects constructive views on both, though PBF’s higher beta introduces greater sensitivity to energy price fluctuations compared to MPC’s broader operational footprint.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable market data, trend consistency, and relative strength indicators, Tickeron’s AI would likely favor MPC over PBF in the current environment. MPC’s broader diversification profile, steadier price trends, and more balanced risk-reward structure align with what algorithmic models typically identify as favorable characteristics under uncertain refining market conditions. PBF’s higher volatility and concentrated exposure are not disqualifying factors but introduce a wider range of potential outcomes that AI-driven trend analysis would currently weigh as a comparative disadvantage. This assessment is probabilistic in nature and reflects the current configuration of market signals rather than a fixed long-term structural judgment about either company’s intrinsic value.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MPC is a Buy and PBF is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MPC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePBF’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MPC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PBF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MPC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PBF’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MPC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PBF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MPC (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +16.96% price change this week, while PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +14.99% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +5.56%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.26%, and the average quarterly price growth was +31.43%.
Reported Earning Dates
MPC is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
PBF is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+5.56% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
| MPC | PBF | MPC / PBF | |
| Capitalization | 97.8B | 8.34B | 1,173% |
| EBITDA | 12.4B | 2.66B | 466% |
| Gain YTD | 116.031 | 163.183 | 71% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.08 | 6.16 | 196% |
| Revenue | 135B | 34.4B | 392% |
| Total Cash | 2.15B | 894M | 241% |
| Total Debt | 34.3B | 2.52B | 1,364% |
MPC | PBF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 85 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 63 Fair valued | 16 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 36 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 93 | 92 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (16) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MPC (63). This means that PBF’s stock grew somewhat faster than MPC’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (37). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's SMR Rating (36) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (41). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
MPC's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (34). This means that MPC’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's P/E Growth Rating (92) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as MPC (93). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to MPC’s over the last 12 months.
| MPC | PBF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 84% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 59% | 9 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 78% |
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MPC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPC has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPC jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
PBF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBF has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBF jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF | 100% | +1.43% | ||
| VLO - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | +1.94% | ||
| DINO - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | +2.78% | ||
| DK - PBF | 76% Closely correlated | +5.13% | ||
| MPC - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | +3.52% | ||
| PARR - PBF | 73% Closely correlated | +3.06% | ||
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