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PBR vs SU
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Petrobras (PBR) vs. Suncor Energy (SU) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both PBR and SU are integrated energy producers that have delivered strong 2026 share-price momentum, but they draw on very different asset bases and risk profiles.
- PBR trades at a markedly lower valuation, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 6 and a higher dividend yield, reflecting persistent governance and political concerns tied to its state-controlled ownership.
- SU has leaned heavily into shareholder returns, raising its monthly buyback to C$500 million and cutting net debt sharply over the past year.
- PBR recently set a record market value above R$800 billion, supported by higher production and a US$859 million Santos Basin settlement.
- Relative performance is strong for both, but SU has run past several analyst price targets, while PBR still trades at a discount to global majors.
Introduction
Investors evaluating energy equities often weigh integrated producers that combine upstream oil and gas output with refining and downstream distribution. Petrobras (PBR), Brazil's state-controlled oil giant, and Suncor Energy (SU), Canada's largest integrated energy company, represent two distinct routes to the same theme: capturing cash flow from hydrocarbons while returning capital to shareholders. This stock comparison is especially relevant for traders and investors seeking to understand how market positioning, valuation, and risk factors diverge between a deepwater-focused, government-influenced producer and a Canadian oil sands and refining operator. Examining their recent relative performance and catalysts offers a clearer view of each company's current market standing.
PBR Overview and Recent Performance
PBR, or Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras), is a Brazil-based integrated energy company controlled by the Brazilian government. Its business spans exploration and production (E&P), refining, transportation, and marketing, with a heavy concentration in Brazil's prolific offshore pre-salt fields. In recent weeks, the stock has extended a powerful multi-year rally, with the company's locally listed shares surging roughly 100% to 110% during 2026. Petrobras recently surpassed R$800 billion in market value for the first time, a milestone driven by firm international oil prices and a stream of positive corporate news.
Key developments have included a US$859 million net settlement with partners Shell, TotalEnergies, and Petrogal over cost and volume equalization in the Santos Basin, alongside a new ultra-deepwater discovery in the Foz do Amazonas basin. Operationally, own oil production reached 2.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter, up 15% year over year, while refining utilization set a record. Analysts at BofA raised their price target and reiterated a Buy rating, arguing the shares trade at a roughly 55% discount to global majors such as ExxonMobil and Chevron. Political risk tied to Brazil's presidential election remains a key overhang on sentiment.
SU Overview and Recent Performance
SU, or Suncor Energy, is an integrated energy company operating across Canada, the United States, and internationally, with a core footprint in the Alberta oil sands, refining, and fuel retail. Its recent market activity has been defined by accelerating shareholder returns and a strong share-price climb, with the stock up roughly 77% to 85% year to date. The company has raised its monthly share repurchases to C$500 million, the second increase of 2026, and projects about C$4.7 billion in buybacks for the full year.
Momentum has been underpinned by record-matching financial results. In the second quarter, adjusted funds from operations reached C$5.3 billion, while free funds flow per share set an all-time quarterly record. Net debt fell to C$4.5 billion, down from C$6.8 billion at the start of the year and C$7.7 billion a year earlier. Suncor has also sharpened its portfolio by selling east coast offshore assets to Ithaca Energy, concentrating capital on oil sands operations and repurchases. Key risks include exposure to commodity prices, refining margins, and longer-term carbon-policy costs affecting oil sands production.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between PBR and SU lies in valuation and geography. PBR trades at a single-digit P/E ratio and offers a higher dividend yield, yet that discount reflects the persistent risk of political interference in a state-controlled enterprise. SU carries a higher multiple, near 14 to 15 times earnings, but that premium is supported by a disciplined capital-return framework and a meaningfully deleveraged balance sheet.
Growth drivers also differ. PBR is expanding production through high-margin pre-salt and equatorial-margin assets, while SU is optimizing a mature oil sands base through cost control, autonomous haulage, and refining throughput. Sector exposure is similarly distinct: PBR is dominated by offshore crude, whereas SU blends upstream production with substantial refining and retail operations. From a momentum standpoint, both have outperformed, but SU has risen past several consensus price targets, while PBR retains analyst upside based on its discount to international peers.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely express a nuanced preference for PBR at current levels, given its combination of strong and consistent trend consistency, a lower valuation, and a clearer near-term catalyst path tied to production growth and re-rating toward global majors. That said, SU presents a more stable, capital-disciplined profile with less governance risk, which could appeal in more defensive market conditions. The AI's stance is best understood in probabilistic terms: PBR currently offers greater potential upside relative to its risk, while SU offers steadier positioning. Neither is framed as a definitive recommendation, and relative positioning could shift as commodity prices and political developments evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PBR is a Buy and SU is a Buy.
PBR in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 26, 2026
PBR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 24 of 29 cases where PBR's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +2.05% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PBR advanced for three days, in 285 of 357 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 212 of 282 cases where PBR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PBR moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 37 of the 51 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 73%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PBR as a result. In 38 of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PBR turned negative on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PBR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PBR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 57 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.529) is normal, around the industry mean (1.710). P/E Ratio (5.570) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.510). PBR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (5.913) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.085) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.293) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
Aroon Indicator for SU shows an upward move is likely
SU's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 30, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 300 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 219 of the 300 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SU as a result. In 52 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +2.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SU advanced for three days, in 250 of 362 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SU moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 28 of the 48 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 58%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 36 of 67 cases where SU's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SU turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 54%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
SU broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.929) is normal, around the industry mean (1.710). P/E Ratio (10.603) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.510). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.230) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.887) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PBR | SU | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 48 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 57 Fair valued | 52 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 5 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 33 | 48 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 61 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SU's Valuation (52) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as PBR (57). This means that SU’s stock grew similarly to PBR’s over the last 12 months.
SU's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as PBR (6). This means that SU’s stock grew similarly to PBR’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's SMR Rating (33) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SU (48). This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to SU’s over the last 12 months.
SU's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as PBR (38). This means that SU’s stock grew similarly to PBR’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's P/E Growth Rating (42) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SU (61). This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to SU’s over the last 12 months.
| PBR | SU | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 25 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PBR’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while SU’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PBR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SU’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PBR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SU’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PBR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SU’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PBR (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -15.71% price change this week, while SU (@Integrated Oil) price change was +0.05% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -2.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.91%.
Reported Earning Dates
PBR is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
SU is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-2.05% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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SU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SU has been closely correlated with CVE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SU jumps, then CVE could also see price increases.