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PBR vs SHEL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR) vs. Shell plc (SHEL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PBR has delivered significantly stronger year-to-date and recent monthly returns compared to SHEL, driven by operational updates and subsidy-related developments in Brazil.
- SHEL offers greater stability as a globally diversified integrated energy company with consistent share buybacks and dividend growth, while PBR exhibits higher volatility tied to commodity prices and domestic policy.
- Both stocks operate in the energy sector but differ in geographic exposure: PBR focuses primarily on Brazilian upstream production, whereas SHEL maintains a broad international portfolio including downstream and renewables.
- Upcoming earnings releases—PBR on August 6, 2026, and SHEL on July 30, 2026—represent near-term catalysts that could influence relative sentiment.
- Market positioning favors PBR on momentum metrics in recent weeks, while SHEL provides more defensive characteristics through scale and capital-return programs.
Introduction
Investors and traders evaluating energy sector exposure often compare major oil and gas producers to assess relative value, risk, and growth potential. PBR and SHEL represent distinct profiles within the industry: one a leading Brazilian national oil company with concentrated upstream operations, and the other a multinational integrated major with diversified assets. This comparison appeals to those seeking insights into commodity-driven performance, dividend sustainability, and sensitivity to geopolitical or regulatory factors. The analysis focuses on observable market data and recent developments to highlight contrasts in business models and positioning.
PBR Overview and Recent Performance
PBR, or Petróleo Brasileiro S.A., is Brazil’s primary oil and gas producer with significant deepwater and pre-salt assets. In recent market activity, the stock has shown notable upward momentum, posting year-to-date gains exceeding 58% and advancing approximately 14-15% over the past month amid operational updates and government subsidy programs. Factors influencing sentiment include scheduled second-quarter production and financial results expected in late July and early August 2026, alongside acquisitions and partnerships in exploration blocks. The company’s high dividend yield and exposure to oil prices have contributed to its outperformance relative to broader indices, though price swings remain elevated due to its concentrated geographic focus.
SHEL Overview and Recent Performance
SHEL, or Shell plc, is a globally integrated energy company spanning upstream exploration, downstream refining, chemicals, and emerging renewables. Recent performance reflects measured progress, with year-to-date returns near 20-22% and one-year gains around 26%. Developments such as completed share repurchase programs, a 5% dividend increase, and steady capital returns have supported investor sentiment. The stock has maintained relative stability compared with peers, aided by its diversified operations and upcoming second-quarter earnings release scheduled for July 30, 2026. Broader market activity in energy has been influenced by commodity price trends and the company’s disciplined approach to buybacks and project execution.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
PBR and SHEL differ markedly in scale and scope. PBR operates as a national champion with heavy emphasis on Brazilian upstream production, resulting in greater sensitivity to local regulatory and fiscal policies. SHEL functions as a diversified major with global reach, downstream integration, and ongoing capital returns via dividends and buybacks. On recent momentum, PBR has outperformed on percentage terms amid commodity tailwinds and operational news, while SHEL has delivered steadier total returns with lower volatility. Risk profiles reflect this contrast: PBR carries higher beta tied to emerging-market dynamics, whereas SHEL benefits from broader geographic and business-line diversification. Market sentiment currently highlights PBR’s yield and growth catalysts against SHEL’s emphasis on shareholder distributions and earnings visibility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and positioning in recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probability of favorable near-term performance to PBR. Its stronger percentage gains and upcoming earnings window provide measurable catalysts compared with SHEL’s more measured trajectory. This assessment remains probabilistic and tied to prevailing data rather than forecasts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PBR is a Buy and SHEL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PBR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSHEL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- PBR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SHEL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PBR’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SHEL’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PBR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SHEL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PBR (@Integrated Oil) experienced а +3.36% price change this week, while SHEL (@Integrated Oil) price change was +4.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +2.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.63%.
Reported Earning Dates
PBR is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
SHEL is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (+2.41% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| PBR | SHEL | PBR / SHEL | |
| Capitalization | 117B | 245B | 48% |
| EBITDA | 250B | 57.7B | 433% |
| Gain YTD | 70.274 | 27.492 | 256% |
| P/E Ratio | 6.12 | 10.17 | 60% |
| Revenue | 489B | 267B | 183% |
| Total Cash | 47.6B | 23.1B | 206% |
| Total Debt | 372B | 75.6B | 492% |
PBR | SHEL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 45 | 46 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 62 Fair valued | 41 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 38 | 70 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 86 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SHEL's Valuation (41) in the null industry is in the same range as PBR (62) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to PBR’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the null industry is in the same range as PBR (11) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to PBR’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's SMR Rating (38) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SHEL (70) in the null industry. This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to SHEL’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SHEL (41) in the null industry. This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to SHEL’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's P/E Growth Rating (86) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as SHEL (87) in the null industry. This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to SHEL’s over the last 12 months.
| PBR | SHEL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 60% | 5 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 60% |
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PBR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBR has been loosely correlated with BP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PBR jumps, then BP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBR | 100% | +1.46% | ||
| BP - PBR | 64% Loosely correlated | +2.26% | ||
| SU - PBR | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.82% | ||
| SHEL - PBR | 60% Loosely correlated | +1.62% | ||
| EQNR - PBR | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.91% | ||
| CVE - PBR | 59% Loosely correlated | -0.43% | ||
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