GFL vs RSG

Key Takeaways

• GFL Environmental (GFL) delivered full-year 2025 revenue of $6.6 billion with 9.5% organic growth, significantly outpacing Republic Services (RSG) on top-line expansion, though RSG's revenue base of $16.6 billion is roughly 2.5 times larger.
• RSG maintains a stronger profitability profile with a 32.0% adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin and $2.14 billion in net income, while GFL reached a historic 30.0% EBITDA margin with $241 million in net income from continuing operations.
• Both companies are active acquirers, each deploying approximately $1 billion in M&A (mergers and acquisitions) during 2025, but GFL augmented this with an aggressive $3.0 billion share buyback program representing over 10% of outstanding shares.
• RSG offers a reliable dividend yield of roughly 1.2% and carries lower leverage at approximately 2.6x, whereas GFL's net leverage of 3.4x and minimal dividend reflect a more growth-oriented, higher-risk capital allocation strategy.
• GFL stock has declined approximately 25% over the past year amid foreign exchange headwinds and take-private speculation, while RSG has declined roughly 11%, reflecting different risk-reward profiles within the same environmental services sector.
• Both companies face commodity price headwinds in recycled materials and volume softness in construction-related end markets, but pricing power in the mid-single-digit range continues to support margin expansion across the industry.

Introduction

Investors evaluating the environmental services and waste management sector often find themselves comparing two prominent North American operators: GFL Environmental Inc. and RSG (Republic Services, Inc.). Though both companies collect, process, and dispose of solid and liquid waste across the United States and Canada, they differ markedly in scale, growth trajectory, balance sheet composition, and shareholder return strategies. GFL, a relatively younger entrant founded in 2007, has pursued an aggressive acquisition-led expansion strategy, while RSG, a decades-old industry giant, emphasizes steady operational execution and consistent capital returns. This comparison examines how these two stocks stack up in the current market environment, offering context for traders and long-term investors weighing exposure to the waste management industry.

GFL Overview and Recent Performance

GFL Environmental Inc. is a diversified environmental services company headquartered in Vaughan, Canada, with a growing U.S. operational footprint following the recent relocation of its executive offices to Miami Beach, Florida. The company provides non-hazardous solid waste management, liquid waste management, and infrastructure and soil remediation services to municipal, residential, and commercial customers across North America. In full-year 2025, GFL reported revenue of $6.6 billion, representing 9.5% growth excluding the impact of divestitures, driven by 6.1% core pricing and modestly positive volumes. The company achieved a landmark 30.0% adjusted EBITDA margin for the first time in its history, expanding 130 basis points year-over-year, while adjusted free cash flow surged 23.6% to $756 million. Net income from continuing operations swung to $241 million from a loss of $898 million in 2024. GFL's capital allocation strategy has been notably aggressive: the company repurchased over $3.0 billion of its subordinate voting shares during 2025, reducing the float by more than 10%, while simultaneously deploying nearly $1 billion into accretive acquisitions. However, recent market activity has been colored by foreign exchange headwinds from the CAD/USD rate, commodity price softness, and speculation around a potential take-private transaction. The stock has declined roughly 25% over the trailing twelve months, and its relatively elevated net leverage ratio of 3.4x, though the lowest year-end figure in company history, remains above the industry average. GFL's 2026 guidance projects approximately $7.0 billion in revenue and $2.14 billion in adjusted EBITDA, with margins expected to reach approximately 30.6%.

RSG Overview and Recent Performance

RSG (Republic Services, Inc.) is one of the largest providers of non-hazardous solid waste collection, transfer, recycling, and disposal services in the United States. Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, the company serves a broad customer base spanning small-container, large-container, and municipal and residential segments, with operations across 41 states. In full-year 2025, Republic Services generated $16.6 billion in total revenue, a 3.5% increase year-over-year, underpinned by 5.9% core pricing on total revenue and 7.1% core pricing on related business revenue. Net income reached $2.14 billion, producing earnings per share (EPS) of $6.85 on a reported basis and $7.02 on an adjusted basis, exceeding the company's full-year guidance. Adjusted EBITDA of $5.31 billion reflected a margin of 32.0%, expanding 90 basis points compared to the prior year. RSG generated $4.30 billion in cash from operating activities and $2.43 billion in adjusted free cash flow, representing an 11.5% increase. The company returned $1.6 billion to shareholders in 2025 through $854 million in share repurchases and $738 million in dividends. RSG also advanced its sustainability infrastructure, bringing nine renewable natural gas (RNG) projects online and commencing commercial production at its Indianapolis Polymer Center. In recent months, RSG has navigated volume softness concentrated in construction and manufacturing end markets, with total volumes declining approximately 0.6% for the year, while recycling commodity prices fell from $164 per ton in 2024 to $135 per ton in 2025. The company's 2026 guidance calls for revenue between $17.05 billion and $17.15 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.20 to $7.28. With a leverage ratio of approximately 2.6x and a 94% customer retention rate, RSG maintains a defensive, cash-generative profile that appeals to risk-conscious investors.

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Head-to-Head Comparison

When comparing GFL and RSG, several structural differences stand out. First, scale: RSG's $66 billion market capitalization and $16.6 billion revenue base dwarf GFL's roughly $13 billion market cap and $6.6 billion in revenue, giving RSG deeper liquidity and broader institutional ownership. Second, growth profile: GFL's 9.5% organic revenue expansion and 130 basis points of EBITDA margin improvement significantly outpace RSG's 3.5% revenue growth and 90 basis points of margin expansion, reflecting GFL's earlier-stage optimization cycle and aggressive M&A posture. Third, profitability quality: RSG's net income margin of 12.9% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.0% exceed GFL's 3.6% net margin and 30.0% EBITDA margin, indicating more mature operational efficiencies and lower interest expense burdens. Fourth, balance sheet risk: RSG's leverage ratio of 2.6x is considerably lower than GFL's 3.4x, providing RSG with greater financial flexibility during economic downturns. Fifth, shareholder returns: RSG pays a regular quarterly dividend that has been consistently increased, while GFL allocates capital primarily toward buybacks and M&A rather than dividends. Sixth, geographic exposure: GFL's Canadian domicile introduces foreign exchange translation risk — a meaningful headwind given recent USD/CAD fluctuations — while RSG's predominantly domestic U.S. operations insulate it from currency volatility. In terms of market sentiment, GFL carries a higher short float of approximately 4.35% compared to RSG's 1.85%, indicating greater skepticism among bearish traders, though GFL also benefits from a wider dispersion of analyst price targets that suggests potential upside for those with conviction in the company's turnaround story.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Based on observable trend consistency, stability of cash flows, margin quality, and relative risk positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely tilt in favor of RSG (Republic Services) for risk-adjusted returns in the current environment. RSG's combination of a 32.0% EBITDA margin, $2.43 billion in adjusted free cash flow, a conservative 2.6x leverage ratio, and a well-established dividend program presents a more predictable return profile with fewer binary outcomes. That said, GFL Environmental may appeal to algorithms tuned for momentum and growth, given its superior revenue growth rate, accelerating margin expansion, aggressive share buybacks, and the potential catalyst of index inclusion following its U.S. headquarters relocation. The AI's preference would ultimately depend on the specific strategy employed — a trend-following bot might favor GFL's momentum if its recent pullback reverses, while a stability-oriented bot would likely gravitate toward RSG's consistent compounding characteristics and defensive sector positioning.

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