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GFL vs RSG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. Republic Services (RSG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GFL and RSG operate in the same environmental services sector, but with sharply different profiles: GFL is a faster-growing, acquisition-heavy consolidator, while RSG is a larger, steadier cash-flow compounder.
- Recent revenue momentum favors GFL, which posted 16.3% year-over-year growth in its latest quarter, versus 4.6% for RSG.
- RSG is consistently profitable with a 23-year dividend growth streak, whereas GFL swung to a net loss in its latest quarter, largely on foreign-exchange and financing costs.
- An ongoing potential sale process for GFL — with reported interest from consortia including KKR and Blackstone — has added a distinct event-driven catalyst absent at RSG.
- Both companies rely heavily on pricing power to offset softer volumes, making margin discipline a key differentiator.
- RSG carries a lower-risk, lower-beta profile, while GFL offers higher growth but greater leverage and volatility.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the waste and environmental services industry often weigh GFL and RSG as two distinct ways to gain exposure to the same essential-services economy. This stock comparison is relevant to growth-oriented traders seeking acquisitive expansion, as well as income-focused investors drawn to durable cash flow and dividends. Although both companies collect, process, and dispose of waste across North America, their market positioning, financial profiles, and risk characteristics diverge meaningfully. Understanding these contrasts helps clarify which business better matches a given strategy, whether the goal is relative performance, stability, or exposure to specific catalysts in the current market environment.
GFL Overview and Recent Performance
GFL (GFL Environmental Inc.) is the fourth-largest diversified environmental services company in North America, providing solid waste management across Canada and 18 U.S. states. In recent market activity, the stock has drawn attention from an active acquisition strategy and a reported potential sale process, with media reports indicating interest from consortia that include KKR and Blackstone and a possible announcement tied to third-quarter results. This event-driven backdrop has influenced sentiment and contributed to price moves in recent weeks.
Fundamentally, GFL has demonstrated strong top-line momentum, reporting revenue growth of 16.3% year over year in its most recent quarter, supported by 6.4% organic growth and pricing gains above 6%. Management has raised full-year guidance twice, citing pricing, acquisitions, and operating efficiencies. However, foreign-exchange losses and financing costs pushed the company to a net loss in that quarter, underscoring its higher leverage and sensitivity to currency swings. Recent acquisitions, including Frontier Waste Solutions and SECURE Waste Infrastructure, reflect an ongoing densification strategy, while a 10% dividend increase signals growing confidence in cash generation.
RSG Overview and Recent Performance
RSG (Republic Services, Inc.) is one of the largest environmental services providers in the United States, offering recycling, solid waste, special waste, hazardous waste, and field services. In recent market activity, the stock has outperformed broader benchmarks over a three-month span, supported by disciplined pricing execution and steady profitability rather than headline-grabbing catalysts.
RSG has delivered consistent earnings, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rising 7.6% year over year in its latest reported quarter and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins holding near 32%. Revenue growth has been more modest — about 4.6% year over year — as pricing gains of roughly 5% to 6% offset volume declines tied to soft construction activity and known contract losses. The company continues to return capital aggressively, with more than $1 billion distributed to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in the first half of the year, and has raised its dividend for 23 consecutive years. Investments in AI-driven pricing, digital routing, and renewable natural gas projects are central to its long-term efficiency goals.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI trading bots that monitor and trade thousands of different tickers, but only a select group earns a place in its curated Trending AI Robots section. These bots span a wide range of trading styles, strategies, timeframes, performance records, and ticker sets, from short-term momentum systems to longer-horizon trend followers. Because market conditions change, the robots highlighted as "trending" are those whose statistical profiles and recent results align best with the current environment, helping traders filter through the noise. Exploring the Trending AI Robots page can help investors see how algorithmic approaches are currently positioned across sectors, including the environmental services names discussed here.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is growth versus stability. GFL is a consolidation-driven growth story, using acquisitions to densify its footprint and expand scale, which produces faster revenue growth but also higher debt and periodic non-cash charges. RSG is a mature, highly profitable operator that compounds through pricing, operational efficiency, and disciplined capital returns.
On momentum, GFL's revenue growth is materially stronger, but its earnings are more volatile due to foreign-exchange exposure from its Canadian operations and elevated interest costs. RSG's momentum is steadier, with a low beta profile and consistent margin expansion, though its growth is more constrained by volume softness in construction-related lines. Risk factors differ as well: GFL faces integration and leverage risks plus uncertainty around a possible sale, while RSG's risks center on commodity-price swings and volume declines. From a sentiment standpoint, analysts rate both stocks favorably, but GFL's near-term direction is unusually tied to the outcome of its strategic review, whereas RSG's path depends more on sustained pricing power.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor RSG as the steadier, more consistent candidate in the current environment. Its predictable earnings, durable cash flow, lower volatility, and entrenched pricing power align well with trend-following and risk-managed strategies. That said, GFL presents a potentially stronger tactical opportunity because of its faster growth and the distinct catalyst of a possible acquisition, which could drive a valuation re-rating. The final preference depends on a strategy's tolerance for volatility: momentum-oriented systems may tilt toward GFL, while stability-focused systems would more likely weight RSG.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GFL is a StrongBuy and RSG is a Buy.
GFL in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026
GFL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 29 of 37 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GFL as a result. In 60 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GFL just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where GFL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +2.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GFL advanced for three days, in 176 of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 147 of 211 cases where GFL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 34 of 61 cases where GFL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GFL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
GFL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.576) is normal, around the industry mean (47.648). P/E Ratio (-92.511) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.754). GFL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.002) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.988) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GFL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GFL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
RSG in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for RSG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RSG as a result. In 41 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RSG just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where RSG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
RSG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.16% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RSG advanced for three days, in 181 of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RSG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 39%.
RSG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for RSG entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. RSG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.862) is normal, around the industry mean (47.648). P/E Ratio (32.623) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.754). RSG's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.742) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.031) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
GFL | RSG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 32 | 39 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 4 Undervalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 49 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 29 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 41 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GFL's Valuation (4) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for RSG (82) in the Environmental Services industry. This means that GFL’s stock grew significantly faster than RSG’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (74) in the null industry. This means that RSG’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's SMR Rating (49) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (92) in the null industry. This means that RSG’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Price Growth Rating (29) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (46) in the null industry. This means that RSG’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's P/E Growth Rating (41) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (97) in the null industry. This means that RSG’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
| GFL | RSG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 40% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 7 days ago 52% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 22 days ago 39% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 36% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GFL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while RSG’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GFL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RSG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GFL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RSG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GFL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- RSG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
GFL (@Environmental Services) experienced а +1.19% price change this week, while RSG (@Environmental Services) price change was +2.62% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was +0.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.05%.
Reported Earning Dates
GFL is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
RSG is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (+0.53% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
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GFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GFL has been loosely correlated with WCN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 50% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GFL jumps, then WCN could also see price increases.
RSG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RSG has been closely correlated with WM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RSG jumps, then WM could also see price increases.