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GFL vs RSG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. Republic Services (RSG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GFL Environmental recently reported Q1 2026 earnings that exceeded estimates and raised full-year guidance, driving positive sentiment amid a major acquisition announcement.
- Republic Services (RSG) maintains a stable profile with a higher dividend yield (1.21%) and upcoming earnings on May 7, 2026, expected to show EPS growth.
- GFL trades at a premium trailing P/E ratio (104) reflecting growth expectations, while RSG's more reasonable P/E (30) suits value-oriented investors.
- Year-to-date, GFL has outperformed RSG with +10% returns versus +2%, though both dipped in recent sessions.
- Analysts project ~35% upside for GFL (target $52-55) versus ~19% for RSG (target $245-248).
- GFL's aggressive M&A (mergers and acquisitions) strategy contrasts with RSG's focus on organic growth and recycling initiatives.
Introduction
GFL Environmental (GFL) and Republic Services (RSG) are leading players in the waste management sector, providing essential services like collection, recycling, and disposal. This comparison analyzes their recent market performance, financial health, and growth trajectories in the context of steady sector demand driven by population growth and sustainability trends. Traders seeking momentum plays and long-term investors eyeing dividends will find value in understanding their relative positioning amid economic uncertainties and acquisition activities.
GFL Overview and Recent Performance
GFL Environmental Inc. operates a diversified waste management business across North America, emphasizing non-hazardous solid waste collection, recycling, and environmental services. In recent market activity, GFL shares traded around $38.50, near the lower end of the 52-week range ($37-52), with year-to-date gains of about 10%. The stock experienced a pullback in recent weeks following Q1 2026 earnings, which beat revenue and EPS estimates at $1.64 billion and swung to adjusted profit, prompting raised full-year guidance. Key sentiment drivers include a $4.6 billion acquisition of Secure Waste Infrastructure, expanding energy sector exposure despite shareholder scrutiny, and a market cap of $14 billion with beta (measure of volatility relative to market) at 0.51. High debt/equity (133%) reflects M&A funding, but ROE (return on equity, profitability relative to shareholders' equity) of 3% underscores growth focus over immediate margins.
RSG Overview and Recent Performance
Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) is a major U.S. provider of non-hazardous solid waste disposal and recycling services, serving residential, commercial, and industrial clients. Shares recently hovered at $206.56, within a 52-week range of $201-259, posting modest YTD returns of 2%. Recent weeks saw a 1% dip amid broader market pressures, ahead of Q1 earnings on May 7 with projected EPS (earnings per share) growth to $1.64. Positive catalysts include FTC approval for the Robinson Waste acquisition in Utah and exposure to recycling market expansion. With a $64 billion market cap and beta of 0.44, RSG offers stability, supported by 13% profit margins, 18% ROE, and a 1.21% dividend yield, though debt/equity stands at 115%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both GFL and RSG thrive in the resilient waste management sector, but diverge in scale and strategy: GFL pursues aggressive M&A for geographic and service expansion, while RSG emphasizes pricing discipline and tuck-in acquisitions for steady revenue growth (ttm revenue: GFL $6.7B vs. RSG $16.6B). Recent momentum favors GFL's 10% YTD gains and catalysts like Secure Waste, contrasting RSG's conservative profile. Risk factors include GFL's elevated valuation (forward P/E 47 vs. RSG 29) and integration challenges versus RSG's lower current ratio (0.64). Market sentiment leans positive for both, with GFL drawing growth enthusiasm and RSG valued for dividend reliability and superior profitability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors GFL due to consistent recent trends from earnings beats, raised guidance, and M&A catalysts positioning it for stronger relative upside amid sector tailwinds. RSG offers stability but lags in momentum and projected returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GFL is a Hold and RSG is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GFL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileRSG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GFL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- RSG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GFL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RSG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GFL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- RSG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GFL (@Environmental Services) experienced а -1.54% price change this week, while RSG (@Environmental Services) price change was -0.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was +1.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.83%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.95%.
Reported Earning Dates
RSG is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (+1.97% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
| GFL | RSG | GFL / RSG | |
| Capitalization | 13.1B | 62.3B | 21% |
| EBITDA | 1.95B | 5.13B | 38% |
| Gain YTD | -15.140 | -3.952 | 383% |
| P/E Ratio | 97.72 | 29.04 | 337% |
| Revenue | 6.7B | 16.7B | 40% |
| Total Cash | 1.44B | 118M | 1,217% |
| Total Debt | 9.89B | 14.1B | 70% |
GFL | RSG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 53 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 87 Overvalued | 53 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 89 | 48 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 85 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 75 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RSG's Valuation (53) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (87) in the null industry. This means that RSG’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (86) in the null industry. This means that RSG’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's SMR Rating (48) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFL (89) in the null industry. This means that RSG’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFL’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Price Growth Rating (62) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (85) in the null industry. This means that RSG’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's P/E Growth Rating (75) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as GFL (100) in the null industry. This means that RSG’s stock grew similarly to GFL’s over the last 12 months.
| GFL | RSG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 33% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 33% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 35% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 39% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 66% | 13 days ago 52% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 36% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 43% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| SBI | 7.80 | N/A | N/A |
| Western Asset Intermediate Muni Fund | |||
| CEF | 51.86 | -0.01 | -0.02% |
| Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust | |||
| EMHY | 40.40 | -0.07 | -0.17% |
| iShares J.P. Morgan EM High Yld Bd ETF | |||
| ALRG | 29.76 | -0.07 | -0.25% |
| Allspring LT Large Core ETF | |||
| EFRA | 35.29 | -0.23 | -0.63% |
| iShares Environmental Infras & IndstrETF | |||
GFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GFL has been loosely correlated with WCN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GFL jumps, then WCN could also see price increases.
RSG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RSG has been closely correlated with WM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 80% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RSG jumps, then WM could also see price increases.