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RSG vs WM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Republic Services (RSG) vs. Waste Management (WM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Republic Services (RSG) has leaned on pricing power and margin expansion, reporting a 32.1% adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin in recent quarters even as volumes slipped.
- Waste Management (WM) is the larger North American environmental services leader, with scale in recycling, renewable energy, and healthcare solutions, but carries a materially higher debt load than its peer.
- Both companies are pricing-led stories: core price gains of roughly 5% to 6% have offset volume declines, reflecting disciplined execution across the waste sector.
- RSG trades at a premium valuation relative to the broader commercial services industry, while WM faces a CEO transition and softer-than-expected volumes heading into late 2026.
- Relative performance has diverged recently, with RSG showing stronger year-to-date momentum while WM has underperformed the broader market in recent weeks.
Introduction
Republic Services and Waste Management are the two dominant players in North American waste collection, recycling, and disposal, together controlling more than half of the U.S. waste collection market. For investors, this comparison offers a window into a defensive, recession-resistant industry where pricing power, asset networks, and sustainability investments drive long-term value. The two companies share similar demand fundamentals yet diverge on financial structure, growth strategy, and recent momentum. Traders and long-term investors evaluating the environmental services sector will find this head-to-head useful for understanding how relative performance and market positioning differ between RSG and WM.
RSG Overview and Recent Performance
Republic Services is the second-largest non-hazardous solid waste collection, processing, recycling, and disposal provider in the United States. Its business is anchored in collection services, transfer stations, and landfills, supplemented by a growing Environmental Solutions segment and expanding recycling and renewable natural gas (RNG) operations. In recent quarters, the company has demonstrated strong pricing execution, with core price on related revenue rising in the mid-single digits, while average yield has consistently outpaced cost inflation.
Recent market activity reflects this operational strength. RSG has posted solid gains over recent months, outpacing both its industry group and the broader S&P 500. The company raised its full-year 2026 guidance after reporting revenue growth of about 4.6% and adjusted EBITDA margin holding near 32.1%. Management has also emphasized technology investments, including AI-enabled pricing and routing tools, which it expects to generate at least $100 million in annual cost benefits by 2028. However, the story is not without headwinds: volumes have declined on difficult year-ago comparisons and softer construction-related activity, making the recent rally a pricing-led advance rather than broad-based demand growth.
WM Overview and Recent Performance
Waste Management, branded as WM, is North America's largest provider of comprehensive environmental solutions, operating the industry's largest disposal network and collection fleet. Following its 2024 acquisition of Stericycle, WM expanded into regulated medical waste and secure information destruction, adding a healthcare solutions dimension to its traditional collection and disposal business. WM also maintains a leading position in recycling, renewable energy, and landfill gas-to-energy projects.
In recent quarters, WM has delivered steady profitability despite uneven volumes. Core price rose approximately 5.7% while adjusted operating EBITDA margin expanded to roughly 30.9%, supported by the SmartTruck fleet technology program and sustainability-driven growth. Recycling and renewable energy EBITDA grew sharply, aided by higher recycling volumes, automation, and RNG production. Still, the company trimmed its full-year revenue outlook, citing softer volumes tied to winter weather impacts, lower recycling brokerage activity, and third-party delays in connecting renewable natural gas plants. WM also faces a planned CEO transition, with longtime chief executive Jim Fish retiring in early 2027. Additionally, WM carries roughly $23 billion in total debt, which limits financial flexibility relative to its peer.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most sharply on scale, financial leverage, and growth diversification. WM is the larger operator by revenue and asset network, and its Stericycle acquisition has diversified it into medical waste and secure destruction. RSG, by contrast, maintains a leaner balance sheet and has historically reported a superior cost structure, with a trailing operating margin that has edged ahead of WM's. WM's higher debt burden, partly a legacy of acquisitions, creates a trade-off between diversification and financial flexibility, while RSG's comparatively cleaner balance sheet supports aggressive buybacks and a 23-year streak of dividend increases.
On momentum and sentiment, the two stocks have diverged. RSG has shown stronger relative performance in recent months, supported by raised guidance and consistent margin expansion, while WM has faced scrutiny over its trimmed revenue forecast and leadership transition. Sector exposure is broadly similar, as both are defensive, economically sensitive to construction and industrial activity, and increasingly invested in sustainability-related revenue streams. The key contrast for investors is whether to prioritize WM's scale and diversification or RSG's margin leadership and stronger recent momentum.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward RSG in the current environment. The combination of more consistent trend momentum, raised guidance, a cleaner balance sheet, and stable margin expansion gives Republic Services a modest relative edge in trend consistency and positioning. WM's softer volume outlook, elevated leverage, and upcoming executive transition introduce additional uncertainty that automated models typically weigh as incremental risk. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: both companies remain high-quality defensive operators, and shifts in volume trends, commodity prices, or catalysts for either name could narrow or reverse the gap. The verdict reflects current relative positioning rather than a guarantee of future performance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is RSG is a Buy and WM is a StrongBuy.
RSG in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for RSG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RSG as a result. In 41 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RSG just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where RSG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
RSG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.16% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RSG advanced for three days, in 181 of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RSG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 39%.
RSG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for RSG entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. RSG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.862) is normal, around the industry mean (47.648). P/E Ratio (32.623) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.754). RSG's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.742) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.031) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
WM in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
The 10-day moving average for WM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WM as a result. In 43 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WM just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where WM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
WM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WM advanced for three days, in 160 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
WM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for WM entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.246) is normal, around the industry mean (47.648). P/E Ratio (32.427) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.754). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.888) is also within normal values, averaging (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.367) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
RSG | WM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 39 | 43 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 77 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 38 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WM's Valuation (77) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as RSG (82). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to RSG’s over the last 12 months.
WM's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as RSG (17). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to RSG’s over the last 12 months.
WM's SMR Rating (34) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as RSG (49). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to RSG’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Price Growth Rating (29) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as WM (45). This means that RSG’s stock grew similarly to WM’s over the last 12 months.
WM's P/E Growth Rating (38) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as RSG (41). This means that WM’s stock grew similarly to RSG’s over the last 12 months.
| RSG | WM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 40% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 52% | 7 days ago 48% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 39% | 22 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 36% | 1 day ago 43% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 35% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
RSG’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while WM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- RSG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
RSG’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- RSG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- WM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
RSG (@Environmental Services) experienced а +2.62% price change this week, while WM (@Environmental Services) price change was +6.65% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was +0.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.05%.
Reported Earning Dates
RSG is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
WM is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (+0.53% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
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RSG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RSG has been closely correlated with WM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RSG jumps, then WM could also see price increases.