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CWST vs RSG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Casella Waste Systems (CWST) vs. Republic Services (RSG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale and stability diverge sharply: RSG is a large-cap environmental-services leader with consistent profitability, while CWST is a faster-growing regional operator whose near-term earnings remain compressed.
- Relative performance favors RSG: RSG has advanced meaningfully on a year-to-date basis, whereas CWST has declined over the same period.
- Growth profile favors CWST: CWST's acquisition-driven revenue growth has outpaced RSG's, but that growth has not yet converted into comparable bottom-line results.
- Capital returns differ: RSG pays a growing dividend and repurchases shares, while CWST pays no dividend as it reinvests in expansion.
- Risk profiles contrast: CWST carries higher leverage and acquisition-integration risk, while RSG offers more predictable earnings but slower top-line expansion.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines two companies operating within the waste and environmental-services industry, yet occupying very different positions within it. Casella Waste Systems and Republic Services serve overlapping markets, but they differ considerably in scale, growth strategy, profitability, and risk. Investors weighing a more aggressive, acquisition-led growth story against a larger, steadier compounder may find this relative performance analysis useful. By evaluating recent market positioning, business models, and observable momentum, traders and long-term investors alike can better understand how these two names stack up in the current environment.
CWST Overview and Recent Performance
Casella Waste Systems (CWST) is a vertically integrated solid waste services company operating primarily in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic United States. Its business spans solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, recycling, and organics, plus an emerging resource-solutions segment focused on renewable natural gas (RNG) and materials processing.
Recent market activity has been volatile. Over recent weeks, the stock has traded below both its 20-day and 200-day moving averages and remains down on a year-to-date basis, with a 52-week range reflecting a meaningful pullback from earlier highs. Sentiment has been shaped by a mixed outlook: management raised full-year revenue guidance while lowering net income expectations, as higher pricing and acquisitions are being offset by elevated operating, labor, fuel, interest, and acquisition-related costs. Analysts have trimmed price targets recently, though the consensus rating remains a "Buy." Key catalysts include landfill permit expansions, an acquisition of a Pennsylvania hauler, and a third RNG facility brought online.
RSG Overview and Recent Performance
Republic Services (RSG) is a national environmental-services company operating across the United States and Canada. Its core Recycling & Waste segment is complemented by an Environmental Solutions business serving industrial and specialized waste streams.
Recent performance has been comparatively steady. The stock has posted solid gains over the trailing three months and remains in positive territory year to date, holding near the upper portion of its 52-week range. This relative strength has been supported by disciplined pricing, with core price gains running well ahead of cost inflation, and by consistent earnings that have topped consensus estimates in recent quarters. The company has continued its long-standing shareholder return program, raising its dividend for more than two decades in a row and repurchasing shares. Growth initiatives include AI-enabled pricing and routing, fleet electrification, and additional renewable natural gas projects. Near-term sentiment has been mixed as some analysts lowered price targets ahead of earnings, though the consensus rating remains a "Buy."
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between these two names is scale versus growth. Republic Services generates roughly $16.9 billion in trailing revenue with a market capitalization near $70 billion and a net margin in the low-to-mid teens. Casella Waste Systems generates about $2 billion in trailing revenue with a market capitalization near $5 billion and net income close to breakeven, reflecting its heavier reinvestment and acquisition-integration costs.
Growth drivers also diverge. CWST's revenue has expanded at a double-digit pace, driven by pricing and serial acquisitions that deepen its regional density, while RSG grows more modestly through pricing, disciplined capital allocation, and incremental technology and sustainability initiatives. On momentum, RSG has demonstrated more consistent relative performance, whereas CWST's stock has been choppier as investors weigh margin compression against expansion potential.
Risk factors differ in kind. CWST faces elevated leverage, integration execution risk, and sensitivity to fuel and labor costs, while RSG's primary challenges center on commodity pricing, volume softness, and the inherent limits of growth in a mature industry. Sector exposure is similar at the core, but RSG's diversification into environmental solutions and larger recycling network provides a broader earnings base.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward Republic Services (RSG) in the current environment. RSG's steadier momentum, consistent earnings profile, and reliable capital returns present a more favorable risk-adjusted setup, whereas Casella Waste Systems (CWST) currently exhibits weaker price trends and compressed near-term profitability despite a stronger long-term growth trajectory. That said, a more aggressive, momentum-sensitive model could view CWST's acquisition pipeline and resource-solutions catalysts as an attractive counterpoint. The assessment remains probabilistic, grounded in recent market positioning rather than a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CWST is a Buy and RSG is a Buy.
CWST in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
CWST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 39 of 48 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CWST's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CWST as a result. In 51 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CWST just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where CWST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +7.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CWST advanced for three days, in 191 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for CWST moved below the 200-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CWST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
CWST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CWST entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CWST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CWST’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 99 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.903) is normal, around the industry mean (47.648). CWST's P/E Ratio (1211.125) is considerably higher than the industry average of (56.754). CWST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.210) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.929) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
RSG in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for RSG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RSG as a result. In 40 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RSG just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where RSG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
RSG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.16% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RSG advanced for three days, in 181 of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for RSG moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 18 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 43%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RSG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 39%.
RSG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for RSG entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. RSG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.862) is normal, around the industry mean (47.618). P/E Ratio (32.623) is within average values for comparable stocks, (52.442). RSG's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.742) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.132). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.031) is also within normal values, averaging (72.867).
CWST | RSG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 32 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 99 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 73 | 21 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 49 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 28 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 38 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 41 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RSG's Valuation (81) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as CWST (99). This means that RSG’s stock grew similarly to CWST’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CWST (73). This means that RSG’s stock grew somewhat faster than CWST’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's SMR Rating (49) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CWST (90). This means that RSG’s stock grew somewhat faster than CWST’s over the last 12 months.
RSG's Price Growth Rating (28) in the Environmental Services industry is in the same range as CWST (47). This means that RSG’s stock grew similarly to CWST’s over the last 12 months.
CWST's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Environmental Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for RSG (38). This means that CWST’s stock grew somewhat faster than RSG’s over the last 12 months.
| CWST | RSG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 2 days ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 2 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 60% | 7 days ago 52% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 62% | 22 days ago 39% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 2 days ago 34% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 2 days ago 56% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CWST’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while RSG’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CWST’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RSG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CWST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RSG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CWST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- RSG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CWST (@Environmental Services) experienced а +10.23% price change this week, while RSG (@Environmental Services) price change was +2.62% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Environmental Services industry was +0.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.05%.
Reported Earning Dates
CWST is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
RSG is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Environmental Services (+0.53% weekly)Environmental Services includes companies that collect and dispose of hazardous and non-hazardous waste. Their services include removal of toxic waste from soil, removing medical waste etc. Some companies also operate incinerators, sewerage systems, waste treatment plants, and landfills. Demand for waste management is likely to rise with increasing urbanization/industrialization. Waste Management, Inc., Republic Services, Inc., Waste Connections, Inc. and Tetra Tech, Inc. are some of the major companies in this business.
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CWST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CWST has been loosely correlated with WM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CWST jumps, then WM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CWST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWST | 100% | +7.39% | ||
| WM - CWST | 52% Loosely correlated | +4.15% | ||
| RSG - CWST | 49% Loosely correlated | +5.03% | ||
| GFL - CWST | 40% Loosely correlated | +1.52% | ||
| CLH - CWST | 32% Poorly correlated | +0.53% | ||
| GWAV - CWST | 9% Poorly correlated | +3.02% | ||
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