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SPG vs UDR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Simon Property Group (SPG) vs. UDR (UDR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- SPG, a leading retail REIT, has significantly outperformed UDR in recent market activity, with YTD gains around 9-10% compared to UDR's modest 0.6-3% rise.
- Over the past year, SPG delivered approximately 25-30% returns, while UDR faced headwinds, posting negative returns near -8% to -13%.
- Both offer attractive dividend yields near 4.3-4.7%, with UDR pioneering monthly payouts and expanding share repurchases.
- SPG boasts a larger market cap (~$65B vs. ~$12-19B for UDR) and higher beta (0.99), indicating greater market sensitivity, while UDR's lower beta (0.73) suggests relative stability.
- Recent UDR Q1 results showed solid FFOA in line with estimates and strong occupancy, but revenue misses; SPG anticipates revenue growth and FFO upside.
- Analyst targets imply moderate upside for both, with SPG at ~$208 average and UDR at ~$40.
Introduction
This comparison examines SPG (Simon Property Group) and UDR (UDR, Inc.), two prominent real estate investment trusts (REITs) in distinct subsectors: retail malls and premium outlets for SPG, versus multifamily apartments for UDR. Both provide income through dividends and exposure to real estate amid interest rate dynamics and economic shifts. Investors seeking relative performance insights, sector trade-offs, or portfolio diversification in REITs—particularly those balancing retail recovery with residential stability—will find this analysis relevant for evaluating stock positioning in the current market environment.
SPG Overview and Recent Performance
Simon Property Group (SPG), the largest U.S. owner of shopping malls, premium outlets, and mixed-use destinations, operates a vertically integrated model encompassing acquisition, development, leasing, and management of high-end retail properties across North America, Asia, and Europe. Its portfolio generates revenue primarily from minimum rents (65-70%), overage rents tied to tenant sales, and fees.
In recent weeks, SPG shares have exhibited resilience, trading around $202 with modest weekly gains amid broader market volatility. Year-to-date returns stand at approximately 9-10%, outpacing the S&P 500 in some periods, driven by strong occupancy near 96%, anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 6.43%, and potential FFO (funds from operations, a key REIT profitability metric) surprises despite economic pressures. Sentiment has benefited from premium asset positioning and analyst upgrades, with price targets averaging $208, reflecting confidence in retail recovery and leasing momentum.
UDR Overview and Recent Performance
UDR, Inc. (UDR), an S&P 500 multifamily REIT, owns, operates, acquires, develops, and redevelops apartment communities targeting high-barrier U.S. markets like coastal and Sun Belt regions. With over 60,000 apartment homes, its model emphasizes rental income (about 94% of revenue), supplemented by fees, supported by tech-driven operations for high occupancy and resident retention.
Recent market activity for UDR shares, around $37, shows stabilization with 1-month gains of 6% but softer YTD performance at 0.6-3%. Q1 results featured FFOA (FFO as adjusted, refining core earnings) matching estimates at $0.62 per share, record resident retention, and 5.2% renewal growth, though revenues slightly missed. Strategic moves like monthly dividends—the first for a residential REIT—and expanded repurchases signal capital return focus amid supply pressures. Analyst sentiment remains neutral, with targets near $40.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
SPG and UDR diverge in business models: SPG's retail focus leverages experiential malls for overage rent upside from consumer spending, contrasting UDR's steady residential rents resilient to e-commerce but sensitive to supply and affordability. Growth drivers favor SPG's redevelopment pipeline and international exposure versus UDR's development in high-demand markets.
Recent momentum tilts to SPG (YTD +9-10%, 1-year +25-30%) over UDR (YTD +0.6-3%, 1-year -8-13%), reflecting retail rebound versus multifamily headwinds. Risk profiles differ with SPG's higher beta (0.99) amplifying market swings, while UDR's 0.73 beta offers defensiveness; both carry solid balance sheets, but UDR's $1.1B liquidity aids repurchases.
Sector exposure pits SPG's cyclical retail (vulnerable to spending slowdowns) against UDR's demographic-driven housing (pressured by new supply). Market sentiment leans positive for SPG on leasing strength, while UDR benefits from operational resilience; trade-offs include SPG's scale ($65B market cap) versus UDR's niche stability ($12-19B).
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors SPG based on superior trend consistency, stronger relative momentum, and positive catalysts like expected FFO growth and retail leasing tailwinds. While UDR offers stability via high occupancy and innovative payouts, SPG's positioning suggests higher probability of outperformance in the near term, though both warrant monitoring amid rate-sensitive REIT dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SPG is a Buy and UDR is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SPG’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileUDR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- SPG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- UDR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SPG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UDR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SPG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UDR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
SPG (@Real Estate Investment Trusts) experienced а +5.29% price change this week, while UDR (@Media Conglomerates) price change was +0.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Real Estate Investment Trusts industry was +1.85%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.90%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Media Conglomerates industry was -0.26%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.07%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.70%.
Reported Earning Dates
SPG is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.
UDR is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Real Estate Investment Trusts (+1.85% weekly)A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.
@Media Conglomerates (-0.26% weekly)Companies that operate in these three (or more) areas: broadcasting, cable TV, publishing and movies/entertainment. The companies usually have a large share in these markets. Walt Disney Co . is an example.
| SPG | UDR | SPG / UDR | |
| Capitalization | 71B | 12.8B | 555% |
| EBITDA | 8.23B | 1.4B | 588% |
| Gain YTD | 21.008 | 10.048 | 209% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.23 | 26.80 | 57% |
| Revenue | 6.65B | 1.72B | 387% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 1.3M | - |
| Total Debt | 29B | 5.85B | 496% |
SPG | UDR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 6 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 32 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 95 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 11 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | 99 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UDR's Valuation (32) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SPG (96). This means that UDR’s stock grew somewhat faster than SPG’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is significantly better than the same rating for UDR (95). This means that SPG’s stock grew significantly faster than UDR’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's SMR Rating (11) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UDR (57). This means that SPG’s stock grew somewhat faster than UDR’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's Price Growth Rating (15) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UDR (48). This means that SPG’s stock grew somewhat faster than UDR’s over the last 12 months.
SPG's P/E Growth Rating (88) in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry is in the same range as UDR (99). This means that SPG’s stock grew similarly to UDR’s over the last 12 months.
| SPG | UDR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 61% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 42% | 4 days ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 11 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 47% | 5 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 39% | 4 days ago 45% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 47% |
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SPG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SPG has been closely correlated with FR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SPG jumps, then FR could also see price increases.