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SPT vs VERX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Sprout Social (SPT) vs. Vertex (VERX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- SPT (Sprout Social) and VERX (Vertex) are both software-as-a-service (SaaS) names that have experienced sharp valuation resets over the past year, yet for different fundamental reasons.
- Sprout Social posted double-digit revenue growth but remains unprofitable on a trailing basis, with a material stock decline reflecting concerns over slowing bookings metrics.
- Vertex generates roughly $748 million in annual revenue, is approaching profitability, and is anchored by a blue-chip enterprise customer base covering more than 60% of the Fortune 500.
- Sprout Social's narrative centers on a new AI-driven social intelligence engine, while Vertex's centers on recurring indirect-tax compliance and cloud migration.
- On balance, Vertex currently shows stronger trend stability, revenue retention, and margin progress, giving it a more favorable relative positioning in this stock comparison.
Introduction
Investors comparing SPT and VERX are weighing two very different enterprise software stories. Sprout Social sells a social media management and intelligence platform, while Vertex provides indirect-tax compliance software used by large corporations. Both have seen their share prices fall well below prior highs, creating a natural debate about value versus momentum. This comparison may interest growth-oriented traders assessing recent momentum, as well as longer-horizon investors evaluating market positioning, recurring revenue quality, and the durability of each company's growth drivers in a shifting software spending environment.
SPT Overview and Recent Performance
SPT, or Sprout Social, develops a web-based social media management platform used for publishing, engagement, analytics, and social listening across the Americas, Europe, and Asia Pacific. The business has been expanding upmarket toward larger enterprise customers while rolling out a proprietary "social-powered AI engine" and an AI agent designed for conversational data exploration and automated insights.
Recent market activity has been difficult for the stock. Sprout Social delivered third-quarter results that beat earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates and has sustained double-digit revenue growth, with trailing twelve-month revenue near $457 million. However, shares fell sharply over the past year—roughly two-thirds at points—as investors weighed decelerating forward-looking metrics such as current and total remaining performance obligations (RPO, or contracted revenue not yet recognized). Several analysts lowered price targets after narrowing guidance, reflecting uncertainty about whether the growth slowdown is contained. The company still reports a trailing net loss, which keeps focus on its path toward profitability.
VERX Overview and Recent Performance
VERX, or Vertex, is a global provider of indirect-tax technology—software that helps businesses calculate, report, and comply with sales, use, value-added, and similar taxes. Its recurring software subscriptions generate the large majority of revenue, and the company counts over 60% of the Fortune 500 among its customers, supported by a growing cloud-based offering.
Vertex's recent performance reflects a steadier financial profile. Full-year revenue grew roughly 12% to about $748 million, with cloud revenue expanding at a significantly faster clip than the overall business. Annual recurring revenue (ARR, a measure of recurring subscription revenue run-rate) rose around 11% to $671 million, while net revenue retention (NRR, a gauge of revenue expansion from existing customers) held near 105%. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) improved, and the company initiated a $150 million share repurchase program. Still, the stock has also pulled back from prior highs amid higher small-customer attrition and slower upsell momentum, even as the company approaches sustained profitability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies operate in adjacent but distinct niches. Sprout Social competes in front-office social media management and intelligence, a category still maturing and sensitive to budget scrutiny and artificial-intelligence (AI) disruption concerns. Vertex operates in back-office tax compliance, a more entrenched, mission-critical function with regulatory tailwinds and high switching costs.
Growth profiles differ too. Vertex generates materially larger revenue with positive, improving margins and meaningful recurring-revenue retention, while Sprout Social grows faster on a percentage basis but remains loss-making on a trailing basis. In terms of market sentiment, both stocks have endured de-ratings, but Sprout Social's decline has been steeper relative to its prior valuation, while Vertex's pullback has been more moderate and accompanied by a buyback and stronger profitability trajectory. Key risks for Sprout Social include execution on its AI roadmap and re-accelerating bookings; for Vertex, the principal risks are customer attrition among smaller accounts and the timing of enterprise tax-engine migrations.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, revenue quality, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VERX over SPT in the current environment. Vertex exhibits a steadier fundamental base—approaching profitability, robust ARR and net revenue retention, and a resilient enterprise customer footprint—alongside a less severe share-price drawdown. Sprout Social offers higher optionality through its AI product cycle and a discounted valuation, but its inconsistent trend and ongoing losses introduce greater uncertainty. The AI's preference is therefore probabilistic rather than definitive, tilting toward the company with more stable momentum and clearer near-term catalysts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SPT is a StrongBuy and VERX is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for SPT turns positive, indicating new upward trend
SPT saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 74 of the 82 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPT just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where SPT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
SPT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SPT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Following a +11.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPT advanced for three days, in 226 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
SPT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SPT entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 13 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.325) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.287). P/E Ratio (-25.080) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.534). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.078) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.074) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SPT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SPT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
VERX in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026
The 10-day moving average for VERX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VERX as a result. In 67 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VERX just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where VERX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
VERX moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +7.11% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VERX advanced for three days, in 240 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VERX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
VERX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for VERX entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VERX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 98 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.635) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.287). VERX's P/E Ratio (477.333) is considerably higher than the industry average of (14.534). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.074) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.601) is also within normal values, averaging (71.128).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. VERX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
SPT | VERX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 34 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 13 Undervalued | 98 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | 8 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SPT's Valuation (13) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for VERX (98). This means that SPT’s stock grew significantly faster than VERX’s over the last 12 months.
SPT's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the null industry is in the same range as VERX (100). This means that SPT’s stock grew similarly to VERX’s over the last 12 months.
VERX's SMR Rating (89) in the null industry is in the same range as SPT (94). This means that VERX’s stock grew similarly to SPT’s over the last 12 months.
SPT's Price Growth Rating (35) in the null industry is in the same range as VERX (45). This means that SPT’s stock grew similarly to VERX’s over the last 12 months.
VERX's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for SPT (88). This means that VERX’s stock grew significantly faster than SPT’s over the last 12 months.
| SPT | VERX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 81% | 8 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SPT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while VERX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- SPT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- VERX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SPT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VERX’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SPT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- VERX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
SPT (@Packaged Software) experienced а +11.96% price change this week, while VERX (@Packaged Software) price change was +12.58% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -0.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.84%.
Reported Earning Dates
SPT is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
VERX is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-0.97% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
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