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STLD vs TX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Steel Dynamics (STLD) vs. Ternium (TX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- STLD has delivered stronger year-to-date (YTD, performance from the start of the year) gains of approximately 24%, outpacing TX's 13% amid recent steel sector volatility.
- STLD reported robust first-quarter 2026 revenue growth of 19.1% year-over-year, boosting its stock momentum despite a slight earnings per share (EPS, profit allocated to each share) miss.
- TX offers a higher dividend yield of 6.3%, appealing to income-focused investors, compared to STLD's 1%.
- Both stocks operate in the cyclical steel sector, with STLD benefiting from U.S. demand and tariff discussions, while TX gains from Latin American exposure.
- STLD's larger market cap of $30B dwarfs TX's $8.4B, reflecting scale differences in recent market positioning.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight broader sector trends that could influence relative performance between these steel producers.
Introduction
Steel Dynamics (STLD) and Ternium (TX) represent key players in the global steel industry, with STLD focusing on efficient U.S. mini-mill production and TX emphasizing integrated operations across Latin America. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, business drivers, and market sentiment amid fluctuating steel prices and demand. Traders seeking cyclical exposure and investors eyeing sector rotation will find value in understanding their contrasts, particularly as U.S. infrastructure needs and trade policies shape the landscape. Both offer insights into steel's role in economic recovery.
STLD Overview and Recent Performance
Steel Dynamics (STLD), a leading U.S. steel producer and metals recycler, operates mini-mills, fabrication, and aluminum businesses, emphasizing low-cost production. In recent market activity, its shares traded around $209, reflecting a beta (volatility measure relative to the market) of 1.40 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 26.2. The stock has surged over 70% in the past year, driven by robust demand and higher steel prices. Recent weeks saw strong first-quarter 2026 results, with revenue climbing 19.1% year-over-year to $5.2 billion, though adjusted EPS slightly missed estimates at $2.78. Sentiment has shifted positively on expectations of sustained U.S. infrastructure spending and potential tariffs supporting domestic producers, outperforming broader indices.
TX Overview and Recent Performance
Ternium (TX), an integrated steelmaker with operations in Mexico, Argentina, and other Latin American markets, produces flat and long steel products for construction and industry. Shares recently hovered near $43, with a lower beta of 1.19 indicating relative stability and a PE ratio of 19.6, alongside a market cap of $8.4 billion. YTD gains stand at 13%, with a 52-week advance of about 56%. Recent performance reflects steady cash positions from prior quarters, supported by regional demand, though shares have shown milder momentum amid currency fluctuations and upcoming earnings on May 5. Investor sentiment remains balanced, buoyed by a high dividend yield and exposure to emerging market growth, yet tempered by global steel oversupply concerns.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
STLD and TX share steel sector exposure but diverge in business models: STLD's scrap-based mini-mills offer cost efficiency in the U.S., contrasting TX's integrated blast furnaces in Latin America for broader product range. Growth drivers include U.S. infrastructure for STLD and regional construction for TX. Recent momentum favors STLD with superior YTD returns and post-earnings gains, while TX trades at a discount PE. Risk factors encompass cyclicality for both, heightened by STLD's higher beta and TX's currency exposure. Market sentiment leans toward STLD on domestic policy tailwinds versus TX's income appeal.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI would currently favor STLD over TX, based on stronger trend consistency, recent revenue momentum, and superior relative positioning in U.S. steel demand. Factors like outperformance against benchmarks and positive analyst adjustments post-earnings suggest higher probability of near-term upside, though TX's valuation and yield provide counterbalance in risk-adjusted scenarios.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is STLD is a Buy and TX is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
STLD’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileTX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- STLD’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- TX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
STLD’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- STLD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
STLD (@Steel) experienced а +5.31% price change this week, while TX (@Steel) price change was +3.19% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was +179.67%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +134.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
STLD is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
TX is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Steel (+179.67% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
| STLD | TX | STLD / TX | |
| Capitalization | 40.8B | 9.73B | 419% |
| EBITDA | 2.39B | 1.76B | 136% |
| Gain YTD | 67.386 | 33.557 | 201% |
| P/E Ratio | 30.31 | 16.52 | 183% |
| Revenue | 19B | 15.6B | 122% |
| Total Cash | 557M | 3.14B | 18% |
| Total Debt | 4.2B | 3.01B | 140% |
STLD | TX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 95 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 1 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 3 | 45 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 56 | 87 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 3 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 1 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TX's Valuation (1) in the Steel industry is in the same range as STLD (25). This means that TX’s stock grew similarly to STLD’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TX (45). This means that STLD’s stock grew somewhat faster than TX’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's SMR Rating (56) in the Steel industry is in the same range as TX (87). This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to TX’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Price Growth Rating (3) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TX (39). This means that STLD’s stock grew somewhat faster than TX’s over the last 12 months.
TX's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Steel industry is in the same range as STLD (14). This means that TX’s stock grew similarly to STLD’s over the last 12 months.
| STLD | TX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 62% | 7 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 70% |
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STLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STLD has been closely correlated with NUE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if STLD jumps, then NUE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To STLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STLD | 100% | +1.15% | ||
| NUE - STLD | 79% Closely correlated | +2.09% | ||
| CMC - STLD | 74% Closely correlated | +0.01% | ||
| RS - STLD | 66% Loosely correlated | +0.73% | ||
| TX - STLD | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.93% | ||
| MTUS - STLD | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.06% | ||
More | ||||
TX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TX has been loosely correlated with MT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TX jumps, then MT could also see price increases.