VDE
Price
$176.42Alerts
Change
+$3.39 (+1.96%)
Updated
Nov 11, 04:59 PM (EDT)
Net Assets
10.33B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
XES
Price
$100.70Alerts
Change
+$3.13 (+3.21%)
Updated
Nov 11, 04:56 PM (EDT)
Net Assets
253.85M
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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VDE vs XES

VDE vs XES Comparison Chart in %
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A.I.Advisor
Oct 28, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) vs. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES)

Key Takeaways

  • VDE offers broad, market-cap-weighted exposure across the entire U.S. energy value chain, while XES is a narrow, equal-weighted play on oil and gas equipment and services.
  • VDE carries a materially lower expense ratio of roughly 0.09% versus XES at 0.35%, giving the Vanguard fund a structural cost advantage.
  • VDE's portfolio is dominated by integrated majors and refiners, whereas XES skews toward smaller-cap drillers and service providers with higher beta (a measure of sensitivity to market moves) and volatility.
  • The two funds are complementary rather than direct substitutes: VDE captures sector-level momentum, while XES amplifies swings in upstream capital spending and drilling activity.
  • Diversification differs sharply—VDE holds more than 100 names with concentrated top weights, while XES holds roughly 30 names at near-equal weights.
  • Relative positioning hinges on oil prices, rig counts, and capital expenditure cycles, which drive the two funds differently over a full market cycle.

Introduction

Investors evaluating energy exposure often confront a choice between breadth and intensity. The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) both sit within the energy complex, yet they represent fundamentally different strategies. VDE is a diversified, low-cost core holding spanning integrated producers, refiners, midstream operators, and service companies. XES, by contrast, isolates the equipment and services sub-industry—the most cyclical and capital-spending-sensitive slice of the sector. This ETF comparison clarifies how structural design, sector exposure, and cost shape fund performance and relative positioning in the current market environment.

Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) Overview

VDE is a passively managed fund that seeks to track the MSCI US Investable Market Energy 25/50 Index, a market-capitalization-weighted benchmark of large-, mid-, and small-cap U.S. energy companies. The fund holds roughly 115 stocks and uses a full-replication approach, generally investing substantially all of its assets in the index's constituents. Its net expense ratio is approximately 0.09%, among the lowest in the energy category.

Concentration is a defining feature. The largest holding, XOM (Exxon Mobil), accounts for more than 20% of assets, followed by CVX (Chevron) and COP (ConocoPhillips). Other prominent names include WMB (Williams), MPC (Marathon Petroleum), VLO (Valero Energy), PSX (Phillips 66), EOG (EOG Resources), and SLB. Because the index applies a 25/50 weighting cap, single-issuer concentration is limited even as mega-cap integrated oil companies dominate the top of the portfolio.

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF (XES) Overview

XES is a passively managed fund that tracks the S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Select Industry Index, a modified equal-weight benchmark representing the equipment and services segment of the U.S. total market. The fund holds roughly 30 stocks and uses a sampling strategy, investing at least 80% of its assets in index constituents. Its net expense ratio is approximately 0.35%.

Equal weighting gives XES a markedly different profile from VDE. No single position dominates, and weights typically range between roughly 3% and 4.5% each. Representative holdings include OII (Oceaneering International), TDW (Tidewater), FTI (TechnipFMC), NOV (NOV Inc.), HAL (Halliburton), and BKR (Baker Hughes), alongside drillers such as VAL (Valaris) and NE (Noble Corporation). This tilt toward mid- and small-cap service providers makes XES highly sensitive to upstream spending and drilling activity.

Industry and Thematic Backdrop

Both funds operate within an energy sector shaped by commodity prices, global demand, and capital discipline. Integrated majors and refiners—the core of VDE—have prioritized shareholder returns, share buybacks, and balance-sheet strength over aggressive production growth. Meanwhile, equipment and services companies—the core of XES—depend more directly on rig counts, offshore activity, and producers' capital expenditure (capex) budgets.

Recent market cycles have featured firm oil prices, resilient demand, and geopolitical supply concerns, all of which support energy equities broadly. However, service providers carry higher operating leverage, meaning their earnings swing more sharply with activity levels. Regulatory and energy-transition considerations, along with OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) production decisions and interest-rate expectations, remain key macro drivers for both funds.

Performance and Positioning Comparison

Over recent weeks and months, both VDE and XES have benefited from strength in energy markets, though their paths diverge in magnitude. VDE's diversified base of integrated majors, refiners, and midstream operators tends to produce steadier, lower-volatility returns with meaningful dividend support. XES, with its concentrated exposure to drillers and service providers, has historically exhibited higher beta and greater volatility, amplifying both upside and downside during sector rotations.

When oil prices rise and producers expand capex, XES has often outperformed on a relative basis as service pricing and activity recover. When commodity prices stabilize or fall, VDE's defensive cash flows and larger-cap tilt have typically provided more resilience. This performance asymmetry reflects earnings cycles in top holdings, interest rate expectations, and commodity trends rather than isolated daily price moves.

AI Screener

Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market using technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of securities with customizable filters covering industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, and breakout candidates more efficiently than manual screening. To explore energy-sector opportunities and refine your own fund comparison, try the AI Screener today.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Based on structural strength, cost efficiency, and diversification, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VDE as the more durable, lower-risk vehicle for broad energy exposure. Its ultra-low expense ratio, larger liquidity pool, and diversified multi-cap portfolio offer a steadier risk-adjusted profile. That said, XES may exhibit stronger trend momentum during cyclical upswings in drilling and service activity, making it a higher-beta complement for investors specifically seeking leveraged exposure to upstream spending. The choice ultimately reflects whether an investor prioritizes core sector participation or amplified, sub-industry-specific positioning.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

VS
VDE vs. XES commentary
Nov 12, 2026

To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is VDE is a Hold and XES is a Hold.

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for VDE with price predictions
Nov 10, 2026

Momentum Indicator for VDE turns negative, indicating new downward trend

VDE saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 77 of the 87 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 89%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VDE turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 86%.

VDE moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for VDE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VDE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where VDE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a +1.02% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VDE advanced for three days, in 346 of 378 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

VDE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 297 of 335 cases where VDE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 89%.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for XES with price predictions
Nov 10, 2026

XES's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory

The RSI Oscillator for XES moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 21 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a +4.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XES advanced for three days, in 316 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

XES may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XES as a result. In 77 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XES turned negative on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.

XES moved below its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 50-day moving average for XES moved below the 200-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XES declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.

The Aroon Indicator for XES entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
VDEXES
RSI
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
89%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
86%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
80%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
89%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
78%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
88%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bullish Trend 3 days ago
90%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 7 days ago
81%
Bearish Trend 7 days ago
88%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
89%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
90%
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XES and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XES has been closely correlated with NOV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XES jumps, then NOV could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To XES
1D Price
Change %
XES100%
-0.36%
NOV - XES
79%
Closely correlated
-0.06%
HP - XES
78%
Closely correlated
+0.82%
NBR - XES
78%
Closely correlated
+0.49%
HOS - XES
76%
Closely correlated
-2.97%
HAL - XES
76%
Closely correlated
-0.06%
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