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AIR or BA or TXT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AAR Corp. (AIR) vs. Boeing (BA) vs. Textron (TXT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AAR Corp. (AIR) has delivered record revenue and expanding margins, driven by robust aftermarket parts demand and a growing software business in the aviation services sector.
- Boeing (BA) posted its first annual profit since 2018 in fiscal 2025, but core manufacturing losses and a $4.9 billion charge on 777X program delays continue to weigh on sentiment.
- Textron (TXT) achieved record annual revenue of $14.8 billion in 2025, with Bell's military segment delivering a second consecutive year of 20% growth, though 2026 earnings guidance came in below analyst expectations.
- All three companies operate in the aerospace and defense sector but occupy distinctly different positions: aftermarket services (AIR), large-scale original equipment manufacturing (BA), and diversified aerospace/defense platforms (TXT).
- Relative performance has diverged meaningfully, with AIR benefiting from strong organic growth tailwinds while BA navigates a complex turnaround and TXT balances steady execution against valuation sensitivity.
Introduction
The aerospace and defense sector presents investors with a broad spectrum of opportunities, ranging from pure-play aftermarket service providers to multinational original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and diversified industrial conglomerates. This article compares three publicly traded companies — AIR (AAR Corp.), BA (The Boeing Company), and TXT (Textron Inc.) — that each represent a distinct investment profile within the same broad industry. Whether an investor is seeking exposure to commercial aviation aftermarket tailwinds, a high-profile industrial turnaround, or a multi-platform defense growth story, understanding how these three names compare on performance, risk, and market positioning is essential for informed decision-making in the current environment.
AIR Overview and Recent Performance
AIR, AAR Corp., is a leading independent provider of aviation aftermarket services, including maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO), parts supply and distribution, and integrated fleet management solutions for commercial and government customers worldwide. Headquartered in Wood Dale, Illinois, the company has carved out a specialized niche by serving airlines, OEMs, and military operators with mission-critical support services that keep aircraft flying.
In recent months, AAR has demonstrated strong operational momentum. The company closed its fiscal year 2025 with record sales of $2.8 billion, representing 20% growth over the prior year, while adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 17% to $3.91. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) surged 34% to $324 million, and margins expanded meaningfully across the business. The parts supply segment — particularly new parts distribution — has been a standout performer, benefiting from both market growth and market share gains driven by exclusive distribution agreements with OEMs. The company's Trax software platform has also gained traction, securing notable contract wins with major airline customers. AAR has further streamlined its portfolio by divesting its Landing Gear Overhaul business and substantially completing the integration of the Product Support acquisition, efforts that have contributed to an improved balance sheet and reduced leverage. The stock has reflected this positive trajectory, trading near multi-year highs as of mid-2026.
BA Overview and Recent Performance
BA, The Boeing Company, is one of the world's largest aerospace manufacturers and a pillar of the global commercial aviation and defense industries. With a commercial airplanes division that produces the 737 MAX, 787 Dreamliner, and the forthcoming 777X, alongside a substantial defense, space, and security segment and a global services arm, Boeing's influence across the aerospace supply chain is unmatched.
The company's recent performance reflects a complex, multi-year turnaround effort. Boeing achieved its first annual net profit since 2018 in fiscal 2025, reporting full-year revenue of $89.46 billion — a 34% increase over 2024 — and adjusted EPS of $1.19, a dramatic improvement from a loss of $20.38 per share in the prior year. Commercial airplane deliveries surged, with 600 aircraft delivered in 2025, the highest annual total since 2018. However, the recovery has been uneven. In the third quarter of 2025, Boeing took a $4.9 billion pre-tax charge tied to further delays in the 777X program, pushing first delivery expectations to 2027. The company also continues to record operating losses in its core Commercial Airplanes segment despite surging revenue. On the positive side, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) lifted production caps on the 737 MAX in October 2025, allowing Boeing to increase output to 42 aircraft per month, and the company completed its acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems to bring critical fuselage manufacturing back in-house. Boeing's total backlog stood at $682.2 billion at the end of 2025, providing substantial long-term revenue visibility, though near-term earnings volatility remains a concern for investors.
TXT Overview and Recent Performance
TXT, Textron Inc., is a diversified multi-industry company with a significant presence across aerospace and defense. Its portfolio includes Textron Aviation (home to the Cessna and Beechcraft brands), Bell helicopters, Textron Systems (focused on defense technologies and unmanned systems), and an industrial segment. Headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island, Textron serves a broad mix of commercial, government, and military customers globally.
Textron delivered record annual revenue of $14.8 billion in fiscal 2025, an 8% increase over the prior year, while full-year adjusted EPS rose to $6.10 from $5.48. Segment profit grew 14%, driven by strong execution across the aviation and defense businesses. Bell has been a particular bright spot, recording its second consecutive year of 20% growth in military revenues, fueled primarily by the U.S. Army's MV-75 program (formerly known as FLRAA, the Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft). Textron Aviation rebounded from a strike-related disruption in late 2024, delivering 49 jets in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 32 in the prior-year period, and ending the year with a $7.7 billion backlog. The company also returned $822 million to shareholders through share repurchases during the year. However, in early 2026, Textron's stock experienced downward pressure after the company issued 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.40 to $6.60, which fell below the average analyst estimate of approximately $6.84, underscoring the market's sensitivity to forward-looking profitability expectations.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although AIR, BA, and TXT all operate within the aerospace and defense sector, their business models, growth drivers, and risk exposures differ markedly, creating distinct trade-offs for investors.
Business Model: AIR is a pure-play aftermarket services provider that benefits from the global fleet of aging aircraft — the longer planes stay in service, the greater the demand for MRO and parts. BA is a capital-intensive OEM that generates revenue through new aircraft sales, defense contracts, and associated services. TXT occupies a middle ground, manufacturing business jets, turboprops, and helicopters while also competing for large defense programs. This structural difference means AIR tends to be less sensitive to new-aircraft delivery cycles than BA or, to a lesser extent, TXT.
Growth Drivers: AIR's growth is fueled by expanding parts distribution agreements, software adoption, and MRO capacity expansion. BA's near-term catalyst is production-rate normalization and FAA certification milestones on the 737 MAX 10 and 777X. TXT's trajectory is heavily tied to the ramp-up of Bell's MV-75 program and sustained demand in the business jet market.
Risk Factors: BA carries the highest risk profile of the three, with $45.6 billion in long-term debt, continued operating losses in commercial manufacturing, and certification uncertainty surrounding the 777X. AIR, by contrast, has been steadily reducing leverage and improving margins, though its smaller market capitalization makes it more susceptible to sector-wide disruptions. TXT faces execution risk around defense program ramp-up and margin pressure from higher research and development costs, while its industrial segment remains a drag on overall profitability.
Valuation and Sentiment: AIR trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio that reflects optimism around its growth trajectory, while BA trades at a discount to industry peers on a price-to-sales basis, reflecting skepticism about the pace of its recovery. TXT's valuation has come under scrutiny following the guidance shortfall, creating a potential divergence between fundamentals and market perception.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative stability, and the presence of tangible near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely favor AIR among the three names at this juncture. AAR Corp. has demonstrated the most consistent pattern of earnings beats, margin expansion, and organic revenue acceleration, supported by structural demand tailwinds in the commercial aviation aftermarket that are relatively independent of new-aircraft production cycles. TXT presents a compelling but somewhat tempered case, with strong defense momentum offset by guidance that fell short of consensus expectations. BA, while offering the greatest potential upside in a successful turnaround scenario, continues to exhibit elevated earnings volatility and significant binary risk tied to certification timelines and production ramp execution. Probabilistically, AIR's combination of trend strength, manageable risk, and identifiable growth catalysts positions it as the most stable candidate for AI-driven trend-following strategies in the current environment.
Disclaimer
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Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AIR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileBA’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and TXT’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- AIR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- BA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TXT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AIR’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BA’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and TXT’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AIR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- BA’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TXT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AIR (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -0.24% price change this week, while BA (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -3.71% , and TXT (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated +0.63% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -7.06%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -14.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was -12.16%.
Reported Earning Dates
AIR is expected to report earnings on Jul 21, 2026.
BA is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
TXT is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-7.06% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AIR | BA | TXT | |
| Capitalization | 5.38B | 169B | 15.9B |
| EBITDA | 375M | 7.32B | 1.7B |
| Gain YTD | 63.474 | -1.423 | 4.990 |
| P/E Ratio | 29.75 | 84.60 | 17.46 |
| Revenue | 3.14B | 92.2B | 15.2B |
| Total Cash | 78.5M | 20.9B | 16M |
| Total Debt | 980M | 47.2B | 3.81B |
AIR | BA | TXT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 91 | 52 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 35 Fair valued | 96 Overvalued | 33 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 100 | 58 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 65 | 10 | 65 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 60 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 66 | 61 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 | 32 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TXT's Valuation (33) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as AIR (35) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for BA (96) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that TXT's stock grew similarly to AIR’s and somewhat faster than BA’s over the last 12 months.
AIR's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TXT (58) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for BA (100) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that AIR's stock grew somewhat faster than TXT’s and significantly faster than BA’s over the last 12 months.
BA's SMR Rating (10) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AIR (65) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TXT (65) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that BA's stock grew somewhat faster than AIR’s and somewhat faster than TXT’s over the last 12 months.
AIR's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as TXT (56) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry, and is in the same range as BA (60) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that AIR's stock grew similarly to TXT’s and similarly to BA’s over the last 12 months.
TXT's P/E Growth Rating (61) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as BA (66) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for AIR (99) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that TXT's stock grew similarly to BA’s and somewhat faster than AIR’s over the last 12 months.
| AIR | BA | TXT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 74% | 5 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 75% | 12 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 76% | N/A |
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AIR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AIR has been loosely correlated with VSEC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AIR jumps, then VSEC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AIR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR | 100% | +1.39% | ||
| VSEC - AIR | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.93% | ||
| WWD - AIR | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.31% | ||
| CW - AIR | 58% Loosely correlated | -1.09% | ||
| SARO - AIR | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.41% | ||
| HWM - AIR | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.46% | ||
More | ||||
BA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BA has been loosely correlated with TXT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BA jumps, then TXT could also see price increases.