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AMZN vs BABA
Alibaba (BABA) vs Amazon.com (AMZN) Earnings Recap: Recent Results Signal Diverging Paths
Key Takeaways
- Alibaba's December Quarter 2025 revenue rose 2% YoY to RMB284.8 billion, missing estimates, with non-GAAP diluted EPS plunging 67% to RMB7.09.
- Amazon's Q4 2025 net sales surged 14% to $213.4 billion, beating expectations, with diluted EPS at $1.95 and AWS growing 24% YoY.
- Both companies ramped up AI and cloud investments, but Amazon's AWS hit a $142 billion run-rate while Alibaba's cloud faced profitability pressures.
- Amazon guided Q1 2026 sales to $173.5-178.5 billion and flagged $200 billion capex; Alibaba emphasized quick commerce scaling amid e-commerce softness.
- AMZN showed stronger earnings beats and growth momentum compared to BABA's misses.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Alibaba and Amazon.com dominate e-commerce and cloud computing, but their earnings trajectories highlight contrasting market dynamics. Alibaba's China-centric operations grapple with regulatory hurdles and intense domestic competition, while Amazon leverages global scale in retail, AWS, and advertising. Recent quarters underscore how AI investments are reshaping profitability: Amazon's AWS acceleration contrasts Alibaba's e-commerce stagnation, making this matchup critical for gauging resilience in a high-capex tech environment.
Alibaba Focus
Alibaba released December Quarter 2025 results (Q3 fiscal 2026, ended December 31, 2025), posting revenue of RMB284.8 billion ($40.7 billion), up 2% YoY but below expectations of RMB290.7 billion. Like-for-like growth excluding divestitures reached 9%. Cloud Intelligence revenue jumped 36% amid AI demand, but Taobao/Tmall e-commerce grew just 6%, with core lines flat. Quick commerce scaled rapidly, up 56% to RMB20.8 billion.
Profitability eroded sharply: non-GAAP diluted EPS fell 67% to RMB7.09 ($1.01), reflecting heavy spending on AI infrastructure, user acquisition, and quick commerce subsidies. Adjusted EBITA dropped 57%, with net income down 66% to RMB15.6 billion. Management highlighted AI model Qwen's momentum and a RMB1 trillion quick commerce GMV target by FY2028, eyeing profitability in FY2029.
Amazon.com Context
Amazon's most recent Q4 2025 earnings (ended December 31, 2025), released February 5, 2026, delivered net sales of $213.4 billion, up 14% YoY (12% ex-FX), topping forecasts. Diluted EPS matched $1.95 amid $2.4 billion special charges; adjusted operating income hit $27.4 billion.
AWS shone with 24% growth to $35.6 billion—its fastest in 13 quarters—operating income up to $12.5 billion on AI demand. North America sales rose 10% to $127.1 billion; advertising grew 22%. Full-year 2025 sales reached $716.9 billion. Q1 2026 guidance: $173.5-178.5 billion sales, $16.5-21.5 billion operating income, with $200 billion 2026 capex for AI, chips, and robotics.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Amazon outpaced Alibaba in revenue growth (14% vs 2%) and beat estimates, while Alibaba missed on top and bottom lines. AWS's 24% surge dwarfs Alibaba Cloud's gains, underscoring Amazon's AI leadership versus Alibaba's domestic cloud constraints. E-commerce tells a similar story: Amazon's stores grew briskly; Alibaba's core platforms stagnated amid competition from PDD and quick commerce shifts.
Risk profiles diverge—Alibaba faces China regulatory/geopolitical headwinds and profitability erosion from subsidies; Amazon contends with capex intensity but boasts superior free cash flow ($11.2 billion TTM) and global diversification. Sentiment favors AMZN for trend strength, though BABA's valuation offers value if AI/exports rebound.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI favors AMZN with 65% probability over the next 6-12 months, citing superior earnings quality, AWS-driven stability, and positioning amid AI capex cycles. BABA trails due to misses and China risks, though its discount warrants monitoring for recovery.
Disclaimer
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Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Notable companies
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AMZN is a Hold and BABA is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AMZN’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileBABA’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AMZN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- BABA’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AMZN’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BABA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AMZN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- BABA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AMZN (@Internet Retail) experienced а -0.21% price change this week, while BABA (@Internet Retail) price change was -6.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Internet Retail industry was -3.06%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was -24.42%.
Reported Earning Dates
AMZN is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
BABA is expected to report earnings on Aug 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Internet Retail (-3.06% weekly)The internet retail industry includes companies that sell products and services through the Internet. With more and more consumers using online retailers, the companies have seen a big increase in the use of their services. Some of the companies in the group are focused on selling business-to-business products and services. Others sell business-to-consumer products and services. Internet retailers offer a wide variety of products like books, apparel, and electronics. Some companies even specialize in only one or two categories. One potentially critical factor for players to thrive in this space is the quality and speed of product delivery. This requires an investment in efficient distribution networks. Things like logistics are important factors in the success in the extremely competitive industry. For a company to stay relevant in the industry it must have effective pricing strategies and upgraded websites. The websites must be easy to navigate and engaging for customers. In addition to the revenues generated from straight sales, internet retailers can generate revenue from subscription fees and advertising. Amazon.com, Inc., Alibaba Group, and JD.com are some of the global leaders.
| AMZN | BABA | AMZN / BABA | |
| Capitalization | 2.63T | 257B | 1,023% |
| EBITDA | 188B | 186B | 101% |
| Gain YTD | 2.894 | -26.029 | -11% |
| P/E Ratio | 31.60 | 16.45 | 192% |
| Revenue | 743B | 1.02T | 73% |
| Total Cash | 143B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 210B | N/A | - |
AMZN | BABA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 92 Overvalued | 24 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 76 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 46 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BABA's Valuation (24) in the Internet Retail industry is significantly better than the same rating for AMZN (92). This means that BABA’s stock grew significantly faster than AMZN’s over the last 12 months.
AMZN's Profit vs Risk Rating (59) in the Internet Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BABA (100). This means that AMZN’s stock grew somewhat faster than BABA’s over the last 12 months.
AMZN's SMR Rating (100) in the Internet Retail industry is in the same range as BABA (100). This means that AMZN’s stock grew similarly to BABA’s over the last 12 months.
AMZN's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Internet Retail industry is in the same range as BABA (76). This means that AMZN’s stock grew similarly to BABA’s over the last 12 months.
BABA's P/E Growth Rating (46) in the Internet Retail industry is in the same range as AMZN (58). This means that BABA’s stock grew similarly to AMZN’s over the last 12 months.
| AMZN | BABA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 70% | 17 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 78% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 72% |
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AMZN and Stocks
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AMZN has been loosely correlated with CVNA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 48% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AMZN jumps, then CVNA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AMZN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 100% | -3.46% | ||
| CVNA - AMZN | 48% Loosely correlated | -10.25% | ||
| JMIA - AMZN | 32% Poorly correlated | -4.87% | ||
| MELI - AMZN | 32% Poorly correlated | -2.52% | ||
| CPNG - AMZN | 32% Poorly correlated | +4.44% | ||
| BBBY - AMZN | 31% Poorly correlated | -5.98% | ||
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BABA and Stocks
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BABA has been closely correlated with JD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BABA jumps, then JD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BABA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABA | 100% | -3.18% | ||
| JD - BABA | 69% Closely correlated | -1.66% | ||
| BZUN - BABA | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.37% | ||
| PDD - BABA | 44% Loosely correlated | -2.12% | ||
| VIPS - BABA | 44% Loosely correlated | -2.27% | ||
| RERE - BABA | 35% Loosely correlated | -1.00% | ||
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