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BMY or MRK or PFE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) vs. Merck & Co. (MRK) vs. Pfizer (PFE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MRK has shown the strongest recent momentum, rallying to a 52-week high on pipeline progress and new product launches.
- BMY has outperformed its sector this year, powered by a fast-growing "Growth Portfolio" that is offsetting generic erosion in legacy drugs.
- PFE offers the highest dividend yield of the three but faces the most immediate patent-expiration pressure.
- Valuation varies sharply: BMY and PFE trade near single-digit forward earnings multiples, while MRK commands a richer premium.
- All three are managing patent cliffs, but MRK's post-Keytruda pipeline and BMY's newer oncology and cardiovascular franchises are advancing more visibly.
Introduction
Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck & Co., and Pfizer are three of the largest U.S. pharmaceutical companies, yet their market positioning and recent stock behavior have diverged meaningfully. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing large-cap healthcare exposure, dividend income, or exposure to oncology and specialty medicine. Because each company is navigating a different mix of patent expirations, new drug launches, and pipeline catalysts, their relative performance over recent months offers a useful lens on where market sentiment and growth potential currently sit. The sections below examine each name's business context, recent performance, and risk profile before drawing a head-to-head comparison.
BMY Overview and Recent Performance
Bristol-Myers Squibb is a global biopharmaceutical company concentrated in oncology, cardiovascular, immunology, and neuroscience. In recent quarters, its narrative has centered on a portfolio transition: a "Growth Portfolio" of newer medicines now accounts for roughly 58% of total revenue and is expanding at a double-digit pace, while a "Legacy Portfolio" is shrinking under generic competition.
Recent earnings showed adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.04, well above consensus, with total revenue rising about 6% year over year. Management raised full-year guidance on the strength of products such as Reblozyl, Breyanzi (a CAR-T cell therapy), Camzyos, and Opdivo Qvantig. The blood thinner Eliquis, co-developed with Pfizer, remains the company's largest single product. Offsetting these gains, Revlimid and Pomalyst continued to decline sharply due to generics. In recent market activity, BMY shares have advanced roughly 17% year to date and more than 30% over the past year, though the stock remains valued at a modest forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple near single digits.
MRK Overview and Recent Performance
Merck & Co. is a diversified pharmaceutical and animal-health company whose growth has long been anchored by Keytruda, a blockbuster cancer immunotherapy. With Keytruda's U.S. loss of exclusivity approaching in 2028, investor attention has shifted to Merck's ability to diversify, and recent developments have been encouraging. Positive late-stage data for a personalized cancer therapy combined with Keytruda, along with momentum in newer drugs such as Winrevair (for pulmonary arterial hypertension) and the pneumococcal vaccine Capvaxive, have supported sentiment.
MRK shares have been among the stronger large-cap pharma performers, rallying roughly 50% year to date and reaching a 52-week high in recent weeks. The company has also expanded its pipeline through acquisitions in areas such as respiratory and hematology. However, reported earnings have been pressured by acquisition-related charges, and the company carries a higher forward P/E multiple than its peers, reflecting the market's confidence in its post-Keytruda strategy. Weakness in the Gardasil vaccine franchise, particularly in China, remains a lingering headwind.
PFE Overview and Recent Performance
Pfizer is a global pharmaceutical company whose portfolio spans oncology, vaccines, immunology, and cardiovascular medicine. After years defined by COVID-19 products and subsequent declines, Pfizer's focus has turned to rebuilding through acquisitions in oncology (including Seagen) and newer franchises such as migraine and obesity-related assets. Recent results showed modest revenue growth, driven by Padcev, Nurtec ODT, Lorbrena, and Eliquis, while COVID-19 product revenue (Comirnaty and Paxlovid) continued to fall sharply.
Reported quarterly profit swung to a loss on non-cash intangible asset impairments, though adjusted EPS was roughly flat year over year. Pfizer also raised its full-year revenue outlook and announced additional cost-savings initiatives. The most pressing risk is a concentrated patent cliff: Eliquis and Xeljanz lose U.S. exclusivity this year, with Ibrance and Xtandi following next year. In recent market activity, PFE shares have risen roughly 18% year to date and reached a 52-week high, supported by a dividend yield near 6% and a forward P/E around 10.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The three companies differ most clearly in growth trajectory and valuation sensitivity. MRK offers the strongest recent momentum and the deepest pipeline optionality, but that optimism is already reflected in a premium multiple. BMY presents a middle path: solid near-term earnings growth and a cheap valuation, though its legacy products continue to erode and its growth depends on sustaining momentum in newer therapies. PFE offers the most income (with the highest dividend yield) and a low forward multiple, but it carries the most immediate loss-of-exclusivity risk and remains partly reliant on cost discipline rather than organic growth.
On sector exposure, all three are heavily weighted toward oncology, but their secondary franchises differ: BMY leans into cardiovascular and immunology, MRK into vaccines and animal health, and PFE into vaccines and a broader primary-care portfolio. In terms of market sentiment, MRK and PFE have both recently reached 52-week highs, while BMY has outperformed the broader market over the past year despite trading at a lower multiple. Risk factors are also distinct: BMY faces generic erosion and clinical-timeline questions, MRK faces Keytruda's eventual patent expiry and Gardasil weakness, and PFE faces an accelerating patent cliff across several major products.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalyst momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would most likely favor MRK among the three. Merck currently exhibits the strongest combination of sustained upward price trend, a 52-week high, new product launches, and a pipeline that addresses its largest future risk. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: MRK's premium valuation and near-term earnings volatility from acquisition charges introduce downside sensitivity, while BMY's inexpensive multiple and earnings beats and PFE's high yield and cost-cutting momentum keep both names competitive under different market conditions. Traders should weigh these trade-offs against their own timeframe and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
BMY in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
BMY moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 44 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for BMY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BMY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
BMY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BMY entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BMY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BMY as a result. In 46 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BMY just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where BMY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +6.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BMY advanced for three days, in 174 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. BMY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BMY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.627) is normal, around the industry mean (-2.730). P/E Ratio (13.482) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.349). BMY's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (17.786) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.642) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
MRK sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
On October 09, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for MRK moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 33 of the 52 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MRK just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MRK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +4.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MRK advanced for three days, in 192 of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
MRK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MRK as a result. In 47 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
MRK moved below its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MRK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MRK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MRK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.547) is normal, around the industry mean (-2.730). MRK's P/E Ratio (115.294) is considerably higher than the industry average of (21.349). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.716) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.402) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
PFE in +1.27% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on October 16, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where PFE advanced for three days, in 149 of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PFE as a result. In 41 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PFE just turned positive on October 14, 2026. Looking at past instances where PFE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 17 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 40%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PFE moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 14 of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 52%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PFE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
PFE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PFE entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PFE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.009) is normal, around the industry mean (-2.730). P/E Ratio (39.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.349). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (13.137) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.057) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.469) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PFE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock worse than average.
BMY | MRK | PFE | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 75 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 89 Overvalued | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 29 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | 79 | 83 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 30 | 39 | 15 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 1 | 3 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MRK's Valuation (89) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as PFE (93) and is in the same range as BMY (94). This means that MRK's stock grew similarly to PFE’s and similarly to BMY’s over the last 12 months.
MRK's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BMY (72) and is significantly better than the same rating for PFE (100). This means that MRK's stock grew somewhat faster than BMY’s and significantly faster than PFE’s over the last 12 months.
BMY's SMR Rating (22) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MRK (79) and is somewhat better than the same rating for PFE (83). This means that BMY's stock grew somewhat faster than MRK’s and somewhat faster than PFE’s over the last 12 months.
PFE's Price Growth Rating (15) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as BMY (30) and is in the same range as MRK (39). This means that PFE's stock grew similarly to BMY’s and similarly to MRK’s over the last 12 months.
MRK's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as PFE (3) and is significantly better than the same rating for BMY (69). This means that MRK's stock grew similarly to PFE’s and significantly faster than BMY’s over the last 12 months.
| BMY | MRK | PFE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | N/A | 1 day ago 52% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 47% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 40% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 57% | 9 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 54% | 1 day ago 51% | 20 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | N/A | 1 day ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BMY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while MRK’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and PFE’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- BMY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MRK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PFE’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BMY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MRK’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PFE’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BMY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MRK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PFE’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BMY (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) experienced а +2.90% price change this week, while MRK (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price change was -0.47% , and PFE (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price fluctuated +1.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Major industry was -0.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
BMY is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
MRK is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
PFE is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Pharmaceuticals: Major (-0.08% weekly)The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.
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BMY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BMY has been loosely correlated with PFE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BMY jumps, then PFE could also see price increases.