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BNS or CM or RY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) vs. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) vs. Royal Bank of Canada (RY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale and stability: RY is the largest of the three, with a market capitalization approaching $276 billion, versus roughly $112 billion for BNS and about $101 billion for CM.
- Valuation gap: CM trades at the lowest price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, while BNS offers the highest dividend yield of the group.
- Momentum leader: BNS has delivered the strongest recent relative performance, outpacing its two peers on a one-year basis.
- Earnings momentum: CM has posted some of the largest earnings beats among Canada's big banks, supported by strength in capital markets.
- Risk profiles differ: CM carries comparatively higher domestic mortgage exposure, while RY has a more diversified, globally integrated earnings base.
Introduction
Canada's largest banks are often grouped together, yet their business mixes, growth drivers, and market positioning can diverge meaningfully. This stock comparison examines three of the country's most prominent lenders — BNS, CM, and RY — through the lens of recent market activity, earnings trends, and relative performance. For investors and traders weighing exposure to Canadian financials, the distinctions matter: international diversification, capital-markets leverage, and domestic credit sensitivity each shape how these names respond to interest-rate shifts and economic conditions. This comparison aims to clarify those trade-offs using objective, verifiable data.
BNS Overview and Recent Performance
The Bank of Nova Scotia, widely known as Scotiabank, operates across Canada, Latin America, and select international markets, giving it a more geographically diversified footprint than some domestic peers. In recent weeks, BNS shares have shown firm upward momentum, trading near the upper end of their 52-week range. The stock has posted a year-to-date return in the mid-20% range and a one-year gain of roughly 47%, outpacing both of its peers here over that span.
Sentiment has been supported by a steady run of earnings beats. In its most recent reported quarter, the bank delivered adjusted earnings per share (EPS) above consensus, alongside revenue that also exceeded expectations. The company raised its dividend following a strong quarter, a signal investors often interpret as management confidence in the earnings trajectory. Scotiabank's international operations add a layer of diversification but also expose it to currency fluctuations and credit conditions in emerging markets, a factor that contributes to a slightly higher beta than some peers.
CM Overview and Recent Performance
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) is a diversified North American financial institution serving personal, business, and institutional clients. CM has been among the standout performers in Canadian banking over the past several years, with a three-year total return exceeding 200% at points during the recent period. On a one-year basis, the stock has gained roughly 44%, though recent market activity has been more mixed, with the shares consolidating below recent highs.
The bank's earnings momentum has been a key driver. In recent quarters, CIBC delivered some of the largest EPS beats among Canada's major banks, powered by a surge in capital-markets revenue — including equities, commodities trading, and investment banking — as well as growth in its U.S. commercial banking and wealth management segments. Management raised the quarterly dividend by over 10%. At the same time, CIBC's historically larger exposure to Canadian mortgages means its shares remain sensitive to domestic housing and credit conditions, a risk investors continue to weigh even as the bank diversifies its earnings mix.
RY Overview and Recent Performance
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) is Canada's largest bank by market capitalization and one of the largest financial institutions in North America, with a diversified platform spanning personal and commercial banking, wealth management, insurance, and capital markets. RY has delivered a one-year return in the mid-30% range and recently reached a market value that, converted into U.S. dollars, briefly placed it in the same league as major U.S. investment banks.
The bank's recent performance has been supported by strong return on equity (ROE) in the mid-teens, disciplined cost management, and continued progress integrating its acquisition of HSBC's Canadian operations, which has contributed synergies and expanded its domestic deposit base. In recent weeks, RY shares have pulled back modestly from 52-week highs, mirroring a broader period of consolidation across Canadian financials. RBC's scale, diversified revenue streams, and lower beta relative to peers contribute to a reputation for relative stability, though its premium valuation reflects those qualities.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The three banks diverge most clearly in business mix and risk exposure. RY is the most diversified and largest, with meaningful wealth management, insurance, and capital markets operations alongside a dominant Canadian retail franchise. BNS differentiates through its international footprint in Latin America, which offers growth potential but adds emerging-market credit and currency risk. CM sits in between, with a growing U.S. and capital-markets presence but a still-elevated reliance on Canadian residential lending.
On valuation, CM trades at the lowest P/E of the group — roughly 14 to 15 times trailing earnings — while BNS and RY trade in the mid-to-high teens. That discount partly reflects CIBC's credit sensitivity. For income-focused investors, BNS currently offers the highest dividend yield at around 3.5%, compared with roughly 2.7% for CM and about 2.5% for RY. In terms of momentum, BNS has been the relative outperformer, while RY, despite its scale advantage, has shown more moderate gains and now trades below its recent peak.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor BNS in the current environment. The bank combines the strongest recent relative momentum, a run of consistent earnings beats, and a dividend increase with a valuation that remains below the premium attached to RY. Its trend appears the most consistently positive of the three, supported by both price action and fundamental catalysts. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: CM offers the most compelling valuation and strongest capital-markets earnings growth, while RY presents the most stable, diversified profile for risk-averse positioning. Relative positioning among these three could shift as credit conditions and interest-rate expectations evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
BNS's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BNS turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where BNS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BNS as a result. In 38 of 67 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
BNS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BNS advanced for three days, in 175 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 175 of 367 cases where BNS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 48%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for BNS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BNS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
BNS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BNS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 55 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.444) is normal, around the industry mean (1.514). P/E Ratio (12.176) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.734). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.996) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.034) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.050) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
CM's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CM turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where CM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CM as a result. In 45 of 70 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
CM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CM advanced for three days, in 206 of 369 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
CM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CM entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.765) is normal, around the industry mean (1.514). P/E Ratio (10.964) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.734). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.713) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.527) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
RY's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for RY moved out of oversold territory on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 32 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RY as a result. In 33 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RY just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where RY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Following a +2.91% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RY advanced for three days, in 167 of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
RY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for RY entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.089) is normal, around the industry mean (1.514). P/E Ratio (12.706) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.734). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.257) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. RY's P/S Ratio (5.537) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.867).
BNS | CM | RY | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 16 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 55 Fair valued | 76 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 22 | 14 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 3 | 4 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 45 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 66 | 64 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BNS's Valuation (55) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (76) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for RY (88) in the Major Banks industry. This means that BNS's stock grew similarly to CM’s and somewhat faster than RY’s over the last 12 months.
RY's Profit vs Risk Rating (14) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (22) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry, and is in the same range as BNS (46) in the Major Banks industry. This means that RY's stock grew similarly to CM’s and similarly to BNS’s over the last 12 months.
RY's SMR Rating (3) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BNS (3) in the Major Banks industry, and is in the same range as CM (4) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that RY's stock grew similarly to BNS’s and similarly to CM’s over the last 12 months.
BNS's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (45) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry, and is in the same range as RY (46) in the Major Banks industry. This means that BNS's stock grew similarly to CM’s and similarly to RY’s over the last 12 months.
RY's P/E Growth Rating (64) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as CM (66) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry, and is in the same range as BNS (77) in the Major Banks industry. This means that RY's stock grew similarly to CM’s and similarly to BNS’s over the last 12 months.
| BNS | CM | RY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A | 2 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 43% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 46% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 22 days ago 55% | 15 days ago 52% | 15 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 35% | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 24% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 38% | 2 days ago 35% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BNS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while CM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and RY’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- BNS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- RY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BNS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and RY’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BNS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BNS (@Major Banks) experienced а +4.39% price change this week, while CM (@Major Banks) price change was +4.13% , and RY (@Major Banks) price fluctuated +4.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was -0.24%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
BNS is expected to report earnings on Dec 01, 2026.
CM is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
RY is expected to report earnings on Dec 02, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (-0.24% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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BNS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BNS has been closely correlated with RY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BNS jumps, then RY could also see price increases.
RY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RY has been closely correlated with BNS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RY jumps, then BNS could also see price increases.