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COP or DVN or MTDR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ConocoPhillips (COP) vs. Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) vs. Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- All three stocks have delivered strong year-to-date gains amid elevated oil prices, with MTDR leading at 48%, followed by DVN at 39% and COP at 33%.
- COP offers the largest market cap ($150B) and lowest beta (0.15), providing relative stability in volatile energy markets.
- DVN and MTDR trade at lower trailing P/E ratios (12.1 and 10.2, respectively) versus COP's 20.9, suggesting better value in mid- and small-cap E&P (exploration and production).
- Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have boosted oil prices, benefiting all three but highlighting COP's global diversification.
- DVN gains from potential Coterra merger talks, while MTDR emphasizes capital discipline amid leadership shifts.
Introduction
ConocoPhillips (COP), Devon Energy (DVN), and Matador Resources (MTDR) are key players in the U.S. oil and gas exploration and production sector, heavily exposed to shale plays like the Permian Basin. This comparison is timely amid recent oil price surges driven by Middle East tensions, which have lifted energy stocks. Traders seeking momentum in volatile commodities and long-term investors eyeing valuation trade-offs in E&P will find insights into relative performance, growth drivers, and risk profiles. With all three posting robust year-to-date gains, the analysis highlights positioning in the current high-oil-price environment.
COP Overview and Recent Performance
ConocoPhillips (COP), a supermajor E&P firm, operates a diversified portfolio across Alaska, Lower 48, Canada, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and Asia Pacific, focusing on crude oil, natural gas, and LNG. In recent market activity, the stock traded around $123, near its 52-week high of $136 amid elevated Brent crude prices from geopolitical risks. Q1 2026 earnings showed net income of $2.2 billion, down 21% year-over-year due to lower production and realized prices, yet generated $2.4 billion in free cash flow (FCF). Management highlighted resilient projects like Willow and LNG developments, with disciplined capital allocation supporting sentiment. The stock's low beta (0.15) and 2.73% dividend yield reinforce its defensive appeal in turbulent oil markets.
DVN Overview and Recent Performance
Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) is an independent E&P company concentrated in top U.S. shale basins, including Delaware (Permian), Eagle Ford, Anadarko, Williston, and Powder River, with two-thirds of output from Permian. Recently, shares hovered near $51, close to the 52-week high of $53, buoyed by year-to-date gains of nearly 39%. Anticipation builds for Q1 2026 earnings on May 5, with analysts raising estimates amid favorable commodity prices. Talks of a merger with Coterra could expand Permian presence and add Appalachian gas assets, though shares dipped recently against broader market gains. Lower trailing P/E (12.1) and 1.9% yield attract value-oriented traders, tempered by beta of 0.48.
MTDR Overview and Recent Performance
Matador Resources Company (MTDR), a smaller E&P operator, focuses on Wolfcamp and Bone Spring in the Delaware Basin (Permian), plus Haynesville shale, with midstream assets supporting operations. The stock recently traded at $62, reflecting 48% YTD strength but pulling back from its 52-week high of $67. Leadership promotions underscore capital discipline, following strong Q4 2025 shale results. Shares faced pressure amid broader sector volatility, with analysts eyeing potential Q1 earnings decline. Attractive trailing P/E (10.2), 2.4% yield, and higher beta (0.91) position it for growth in a high-oil environment, balanced by size-related risks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COP, DVN, and MTDR share upstream E&P models tied to U.S. shale, but differ in scale and exposure. COP's global assets and LNG buffer oil volatility, contrasting DVN and MTDR's Permian-heavy focus for higher domestic growth. Recent momentum favors MTDR's YTD lead, but DVN edges on merger catalysts. Risks rise with size inversely: MTDR's beta signals volatility, versus COP's stability. Valuations show DVN/MTDR cheaper on P/E, sensitive to oil dips, while sentiment tilts to COP's FCF resilience.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward COP based on consistent trends, superior FCF generation, and diversified positioning amid oil price swings from recent geopolitical events. While DVN's merger potential and MTDR's momentum offer upside, COP's scale provides higher probability of stability and capital returns in uncertain markets.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileDVN’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and MTDR’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- COP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- DVN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTDR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DVN’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and MTDR’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- DVN’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MTDR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
COP (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а -0.14% price change this week, while DVN (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was +2.33% , and MTDR (@Oil & Gas Production) price fluctuated +0.90% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was -5.76%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.71%.
Reported Earning Dates
COP is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
DVN is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
MTDR is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (-5.76% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| COP | DVN | MTDR | |
| Capitalization | 143B | 52.3B | 6.71B |
| EBITDA | 24.6B | 7.06B | 2.09B |
| Gain YTD | 26.874 | 24.343 | 29.198 |
| P/E Ratio | 19.83 | 12.62 | 13.93 |
| Revenue | 58.2B | 16.5B | 3.59B |
| Total Cash | 6.36B | 1.82B | 30.5M |
| Total Debt | 23.3B | 8.59B | 3.57B |
COP | DVN | MTDR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 80 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 69 Overvalued | 36 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 65 | 57 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 68 | 57 | 76 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 49 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 17 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTDR's Valuation (36) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (43) and is somewhat better than the same rating for DVN (69). This means that MTDR's stock grew similarly to COP’s and somewhat faster than DVN’s over the last 12 months.
COP's Profit vs Risk Rating (33) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as MTDR (57) and is in the same range as DVN (65). This means that COP's stock grew similarly to MTDR’s and similarly to DVN’s over the last 12 months.
DVN's SMR Rating (57) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (68) and is in the same range as MTDR (76). This means that DVN's stock grew similarly to COP’s and similarly to MTDR’s over the last 12 months.
COP's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as DVN (49) and is in the same range as MTDR (53). This means that COP's stock grew similarly to DVN’s and similarly to MTDR’s over the last 12 months.
MTDR's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is in the same range as COP (16) and is in the same range as DVN (17). This means that MTDR's stock grew similarly to COP’s and similarly to DVN’s over the last 12 months.
| COP | DVN | MTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 67% | 15 days ago 69% | 28 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 57% | 11 days ago 68% | 11 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 41% | N/A | 8 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 65% |
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COP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COP has been closely correlated with EOG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if COP jumps, then EOG could also see price increases.
MTDR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTDR has been closely correlated with CHRD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTDR jumps, then CHRD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTDR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTDR | 100% | +0.80% | ||
| CHRD - MTDR | 86% Closely correlated | +1.20% | ||
| OVV - MTDR | 85% Closely correlated | +1.63% | ||
| MGY - MTDR | 84% Closely correlated | +1.43% | ||
| PR - MTDR | 83% Closely correlated | +1.30% | ||
| DVN - MTDR | 82% Closely correlated | +1.57% | ||
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