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FAST or GWW or MSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Fastenal Company (FAST) vs. W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) vs. MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MSM leads year-to-date performance at +24.5%, outpacing GWW (+13.3%) and FAST (+12.5%), reflecting stronger momentum in the industrial distribution sector.
- MSM offers the lowest forward P/E ratio at 19.88, compared to FAST's 37.17 and GWW's 26.11, suggesting better valuation sensitivity.
- Dividend yields favor MSM at 3.39%, ahead of FAST (2.05%) and GWW (0.81%), appealing to income-focused investors.
- GWW and FAST boast larger market caps around $51-54 billion, versus MSM's $5.73 billion, indicating scale differences in market positioning.
- Recent analyst actions include a KeyBanc upgrade for MSM to Overweight (PT $117), GWW dividend hike, and FAST equity plans amid margin scrutiny.
Introduction
Fastenal Company (FAST), W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW), and MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) are prominent players in the industrial distribution sector, specializing in maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products. This comparison analyzes their recent market performance, valuations, and sentiment amid economic cycles influencing manufacturing and construction demand. Traders seeking short-term momentum and long-term investors evaluating stability in cyclical industries will find insights into relative strengths, risks, and positioning valuable for portfolio decisions.
FAST Overview and Recent Performance
Fastenal Company (FAST) is a leading wholesale distributor of fasteners, industrial, and construction supplies, serving manufacturing, non-residential construction, and government sectors across North America and internationally. In recent market activity, shares trade around $44.69, down slightly amid broader sector fluctuations, within a 52-week range of $38.97-$50.63. Year-to-date gains stand at 12.54%, supported by double-digit growth in Q1 FY26 sales (2.2B), earnings, and operating income. However, sentiment reflects caution due to margin pressures from international revenues and costs, alongside new equity plans tying employee rewards to dividends. Analyst targets average $46.49, with recent Equal-Weight maintenance.
GWW Overview and Recent Performance
W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) distributes MRO products like safety equipment, tools, and plumbing supplies through high-touch and e-commerce channels, targeting commercial, healthcare, and manufacturing clients in North America and beyond. Shares hover near $1,141, off 0.65% recently, in a 52-week band of $906-$1,219. YTD performance is 13.31%, bolstered by Q4 FY25 revenue of $4.42B. Recent developments include a 10% quarterly dividend increase and positive AGM outcomes emphasizing 2025 growth and AI initiatives. Upcoming Q1 earnings (expected EPS $10.20, revenue $4.57B) drive anticipation, though fair value models suggest 23% overvaluation. Analysts maintain Market Perform with raised targets up to $1,288.
MSM Overview and Recent Performance
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) distributes metalworking and MRO products including cutting tools, fasteners, and safety supplies via catalogs, e-commerce, and inventory solutions to machine shops, manufacturers, and government agencies. Trading at $102.63, up 0.35%, near the 52-week high of $105.09 (low $74.30), shares reflect robust recent momentum with YTD returns of 24.50% and a one-month gain over 13%. Q2 FY26 revenue reached $917.8M. Positive sentiment stems from a KeyBanc upgrade to Overweight (PT $117) on April 27, amid industrial sector tailwinds. Average analyst targets are $93.50, signaling potential upside.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
All three operate in industrial distribution with overlapping MRO portfolios, but scale varies: GWW and FAST (~$50B+ market caps) leverage broader networks versus MSM's mid-cap agility ($5.7B). Growth drivers include e-commerce expansion and manufacturing demand, yet MSM shows superior recent momentum (12-month outperformance vs. peers). Risk factors feature cyclical exposure and margins—FAST faces international pressures, GWW valuation premiums. MSM's lower forward P/E and higher yield contrast FAST's premium multiple, balancing growth trade-offs with income stability. Sentiment tilts positive on MSM upgrades amid sector recovery.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward MSM with higher probability for near-term outperformance, driven by consistent YTD momentum, recent analyst upgrade, attractive forward valuation, and dividend appeal amid industrial tailwinds. FAST and GWW offer stability via scale, but MSM's relative positioning edges it in observable trends.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FAST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileGWW’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s), and MSM’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- FAST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- GWW’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- MSM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FAST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GWW’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and MSM’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FAST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- GWW’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MSM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FAST (@Electronics Distributors) experienced а +5.86% price change this week, while GWW (@Electronics Distributors) price change was +5.33% , and MSM (@Electronics Distributors) price fluctuated +5.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronics Distributors industry was +1.30%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
FAST is expected to report earnings on Jul 13, 2026.
GWW is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
MSM is expected to report earnings on Jul 07, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronics Distributors (+1.30% weekly)Electronics distributors are companies that are involved in distribution of one or more of the following: electronic components, computer products/ peripherals and software products & services. Several electronics distributors are also becoming the point of contact for technical/pre- & post-sale support in many cases, in an attempt to bolster their position in the market. Tariffs and/or cross-border trade barriers are some of the potential threats to the electronics supply chain, but that could also potentially lead to re-directing to markets where tariffs/restrictions are lower depending on demand. The industry is also vulnerable in the event of economic slowdowns. Arrow Electronics, Inc., SYNNEX Corporation and Versum Materials, Inc. are some of the major electronics distributors in the U.S.
| FAST | GWW | MSM | |
| Capitalization | 54.1B | 60.9B | 6.45B |
| EBITDA | 1.9B | 2.88B | 395M |
| Gain YTD | 17.866 | 29.340 | 40.127 |
| P/E Ratio | 41.41 | 34.96 | 31.05 |
| Revenue | 8.44B | 18.4B | 3.83B |
| Total Cash | 309M | 585M | 46.2M |
| Total Debt | 446M | 2.86B | 559M |
FAST | GWW | MSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 35 | 14 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | 22 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 11 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 29 | 20 | 56 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 30 | 19 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 31 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MSM's Valuation (22) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FAST (85) and is significantly better than the same rating for GWW (88). This means that MSM's stock grew somewhat faster than FAST’s and significantly faster than GWW’s over the last 12 months.
GWW's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as MSM (35) and is somewhat better than the same rating for FAST (63). This means that GWW's stock grew similarly to MSM’s and somewhat faster than FAST’s over the last 12 months.
GWW's SMR Rating (20) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (29) and is somewhat better than the same rating for MSM (56). This means that GWW's stock grew similarly to FAST’s and somewhat faster than MSM’s over the last 12 months.
GWW's Price Growth Rating (19) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (30) and is in the same range as MSM (39). This means that GWW's stock grew similarly to FAST’s and similarly to MSM’s over the last 12 months.
MSM's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as GWW (31) and is in the same range as FAST (51). This means that MSM's stock grew similarly to GWW’s and similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
| FAST | GWW | MSM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 59% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 43% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 52% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 50% | 17 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 46% |
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FAST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FAST has been loosely correlated with GWW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FAST jumps, then GWW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FAST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | 100% | -0.78% | ||
| GWW - FAST | 60% Loosely correlated | +0.83% | ||
| MSM - FAST | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.26% | ||
| AIT - FAST | 49% Loosely correlated | +0.52% | ||
| WSO - FAST | 40% Loosely correlated | +0.63% | ||
| BXC - FAST | 39% Loosely correlated | -2.61% | ||
More | ||||
MSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MSM has been loosely correlated with AIT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 64% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MSM jumps, then AIT could also see price increases.