First Horizon Corporation (FHN) is a Memphis, Tennessee-based regional bank holding company that operates First Horizon Bank across the Southeast and offers commercial, consumer, and specialty banking services alongside fixed-income, wealth management, and mortgage businesses. With shares trading near $23.08 in early October 2026, the question facing investors is whether the stock can climb to a $28 price target—a move that would require meaningful appreciation from current levels.
First Horizon carries broad but cautious Street coverage. A review of current targets identifies a low of $25 and a high of $30, with the calculated mean landing near $27.70 and rounding to a clean $28 central target. Notable figures include Bank of America, RBC Capital, and Morgan Stanley at $30; Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and D.A. Davidson at $29; Citi and Raymond James at $28; and more cautious $25 targets from Evercore ISI, Wells Fargo, and Hovde Group.
Sentiment skews neutral rather than outright bullish. Recent revisions have leaned lower: Wells Fargo cut its target to $25 from $28 in late September, Evercore ISI trimmed to $25 from $26, TD Cowen moved to $26, and Citi edged down to $28 from $28.50. A July downgrade of the broader regional-bank backdrop and slower M&A activity have weighed on the stock forecast. Analysts generally cite a mid-single-digit revenue-growth outlook and stable profitability, but few see an immediate catalyst to justify higher valuations.
Shares closed around $23.08 in early October 2026, giving First Horizon a market capitalization near $11 billion, a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) of roughly 11, and a forward P/E near 10.8. The stock trades in the lower half of its 52-week range of $19.80 to $26.56 and yields about 3%.
Reaching $28 implies roughly 21% upside—a substantial move for a mature regional bank. The path would likely require a combination of sustained NIM in the high-3.40% area, continued mid-single-digit loan growth, and evidence that the company's $100 million-plus pre-tax, pre-provision revenue initiative is translating into earnings. A re-rating toward the analyst price target would also depend on stabilizing deposit costs and renewed investor confidence in regional-bank fundamentals.
First Horizon delivered a Q2 2026 EPS (earnings per share) beat of $0.54 versus a $0.526 estimate, with solid credit metrics and declining nonperforming loans. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance for adjusted revenue growth of 3% to 7% and expects NIM to remain stable in the high-3.40% range. Loan growth has been concentrated in commercial and industrial lending, supported by strong pipelines.
Capital returns are another support. The company has an active repurchase program, buying back about $233 million of stock in Q1 2026, which reduces share count and supports EPS. A modestly higher interest-rate environment, with more than half the loan portfolio variable-rate, could also help net interest income even as deposit costs rise.
The clearest obstacle is deposit-cost pressure. Q2 results showed softer net interest income as deposit costs climbed, and shares fell nearly 10% after the report as investors questioned the pace of revenue improvement. Analysts have flagged that hitting the top end of guidance would require a sizable step-up in second-half revenue, which is uncertain amid competitive funding costs.
A slowdown in regional-bank M&A has also removed a premium some investors had priced in, and several firms have downgraded or trimmed targets in recent months. A weaker macro backdrop, higher-than-expected funding costs, or a deterioration in credit quality could compress valuation further and keep the $28 level out of reach.
The 52-week high of $26.56 stands as the nearest major resistance level and the first hurdle any move toward $28 would need to clear. The stock is currently below both its 50-day moving average near $24.70 and its 200-day moving average near $24.41, indicating short-term weakness. A support zone sits in the low-$20s near the 52-week low of $19.80. Reclaiming the moving averages, then the $26.50 high, would be important milestones on any sustained path toward the target.
Analyst price targets generally reflect a roughly 12-month research horizon, though firms differ in methodology and some revisions reflect near-term earnings adjustments. First Horizon reports third-quarter results on October 15, 2026, with consensus estimates near $0.52 per share on roughly $890 million in revenue. Investors should watch for guidance on net interest income, deposit costs, the NIM trajectory, loan growth, and any update on the buyback. Federal Reserve rate decisions and regional-bank sentiment remain key macro inputs.
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The $28 central target—derived from the average of roughly 14 current analyst price targets spanning $25 to $30—implies about 21% upside from a price near $23.08. That is a substantial but not extreme move for a regional bank. The bull case rests on a stable NIM, loan growth, cost discipline, and buybacks, while the bear case centers on deposit-cost pressure, soft net interest income, and fading M&A optionality. The wide $5 gap between the lowest and highest targets underscores genuine analyst disagreement. Whether FHN can reach $28 will depend on third-quarter results and whether the company can demonstrate durable revenue momentum against a still-uncertain rate and funding backdrop. No outcome is guaranteed, and investors should monitor earnings, guidance, and technical levels before drawing conclusions.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FHN has been closely correlated with HWC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FHN jumps, then HWC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FHN | 1D Price Change % |
|---|---|---|
| FHN | 100% | +1.45% |
| FHN (82 stocks) | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.98% |
| Banks (430 stocks) | 39% Loosely correlated | +1.14% |
| Regional Banks (357 stocks) | 26% Poorly correlated | +1.36% |