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FHN vs WTFC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? First Horizon Corporation (FHN) vs. Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FHN (First Horizon) is a Southeast-focused regional bank with roughly $64 billion in loans and a diversified, partly counter-cyclical revenue mix including fixed income and mortgage banking.
- WTFC (Wintrust) is a Chicago-area community and specialty-finance bank that has posted six consecutive record quarters of net income and is growing loans and deposits in the low-teens annualized range.
- Both names reported stronger year-over-year earnings, but WTFC has shown faster organic balance-sheet growth, while FHN leans on buybacks and fee diversification.
- Credit quality remains stable at both banks, though FHN carries a modestly higher allowance-to-loans ratio and lower capital ratio than WTFC.
- Relative momentum has favored WTFC on a multi-year basis, while FHN trades at a lower valuation with a more asset-sensitive profile.
Introduction
Regional banks sit at the intersection of interest-rate policy, loan demand, and deposit competition, making stock selection within the group a matter of sharp contrasts. This stock comparison examines two well-established franchises: First Horizon Corporation (FHN), a Memphis-based lender with a broad Southeast footprint, and Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC), a Chicago-area community and specialty-finance leader. For traders and investors evaluating relative performance and market positioning, the two offer distinct risk-reward profiles: one anchored in diversified, partly counter-cyclical fee businesses, the other in rapid organic growth across the Midwest. Understanding how their growth drivers, credit profiles, and valuations differ can help clarify which name aligns with a given investment thesis.
FHN Overview and Recent Performance
FHN, or First Horizon Corporation, operates a regional and specialty banking franchise concentrated in Tennessee and the Southeast, complemented by a fixed income business (FHN Financial) and mortgage-related operations. In recent quarters, the bank has delivered disciplined execution: second-quarter 2026 net income available to common shareholders rose 12% year over year to $260 million, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.54 and an adjusted return on tangible common equity (ROTCE, a profitability measure comparing earnings to shareholder capital) above 15%. Net interest margin (NIM, the spread between loan yields and funding costs) has held near 3.5%.
Recent market activity has been more subdued. Shares have pulled back from their mid-year highs, reflecting broader reassessment of regional-bank risks such as deposit-cost pressure and fixed income revenue softness, even as revenue beats estimates. Management has countered with an active capital-return program, repurchasing roughly $233 million of stock in the first quarter of 2026, and continues to target mid-single-digit balance-sheet growth. The bank's common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio, a key measure of core capital strength, sits near 10.5%.
WTFC Overview and Recent Performance
WTFC, or Wintrust Financial Corporation, delivers community-oriented banking across the Chicago metropolitan area, southern Wisconsin, and adjacent markets, alongside specialty finance in insurance premium funding, equipment leasing, and wealth management. Its recent operating trajectory has been notably strong: second-quarter 2026 marked a sixth consecutive record quarter, with net income of $233.7 million and year-to-date results up 20% versus the prior year. Growth has been entirely organic, with deposits rising at a 15% annualized pace and loans at 12% annualized in the second quarter.
The company's NIM has stayed in a tight 3.50%–3.59% band over ten quarters, signaling stability, while credit metrics remain favorable, with net charge-offs (NCO, or loans written off as uncollectible) near 14 basis points. In recent weeks, the stock has experienced a pullback of roughly 7% over the past month, even as multi-year total returns remain strong. Analysts have responded constructively, with several firms lifting price targets following earnings beats, though valuation now sits modestly above regional-bank peer averages.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two banks diverge most clearly on growth strategy and business mix. WTFC emphasizes organic, double-digit loan and deposit expansion across commercial, premium finance, and specialty lending, giving it a growth-oriented profile but also a higher price-to-earnings multiple relative to peers. FHN grows more slowly (roughly 3% loan growth) but pairs its banking franchise with counter-cyclical businesses — fixed income distribution and mortgage banking — that can cushion earnings when rates fall, making it comparatively more asset-sensitive.
On risk factors, both maintain stable asset quality, yet FHN carries a higher allowance-to-loans ratio and a lower CET1 ratio, reflecting slightly heavier capital deployment into buybacks. WTFC holds a stronger capital and credit posture but trades at a premium. Market sentiment has favored WTFC's momentum narrative, while FHN screens as the more value-oriented, diversified option. These trade-offs — growth versus diversification, premium versus discount — define the core contrast for investors.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, growth momentum, and earnings stability, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward WTFC. The bank's streak of record quarterly results, broad-based organic loan and deposit growth, and stable net interest margin represent a more consistent, catalyst-rich trend profile than FHN's slower-growth, buyback-driven setup. That said, FHN's lower valuation and counter-cyclical fee businesses could appeal if rate expectations shift. The AI's preference is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting WTFC's relatively stronger near-term positioning rather than any assurance of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FHN is a Hold and WTFC is a Hold.
FHN's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for FHN entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 100 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 56 of the 100 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 56%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FHN as a result. In 40 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FHN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FHN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 34 of 50 cases where FHN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FHN just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where FHN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +1.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FHN advanced for three days, in 180 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
FHN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 34 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.295) is normal, around the industry mean (1.323). P/E Ratio (11.149) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.509). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.448) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. FHN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
WTFC's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for WTFC moved out of oversold territory on October 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 16 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 14 of the 16 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 33 of 55 cases where WTFC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WTFC just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where WTFC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +1.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WTFC advanced for three days, in 194 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
WTFC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on WTFC as a result. In 57 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WTFC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for WTFC entered a downward trend on October 15, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. WTFC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.369) is normal, around the industry mean (1.323). P/E Ratio (11.569) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.509). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.150) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.527) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
FHN | WTFC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 7 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 34 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 24 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FHN's Valuation (34) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as WTFC (63). This means that FHN’s stock grew similarly to WTFC’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's Profit vs Risk Rating (24) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FHN (56). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to FHN’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's SMR Rating (9) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FHN (9). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to FHN’s over the last 12 months.
FHN's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as WTFC (60). This means that FHN’s stock grew similarly to WTFC’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's P/E Growth Rating (47) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FHN (69). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to FHN’s over the last 12 months.
| FHN | WTFC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 56% | 12 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 58% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FHN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WTFC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FHN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WTFC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FHN’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WTFC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FHN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- WTFC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
FHN (@Regional Banks) experienced а -1.93% price change this week, while WTFC (@Regional Banks) price change was -0.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +0.50%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
FHN is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
WTFC is expected to report earnings on Oct 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+0.50% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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