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FHN vs KEY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? First Horizon Corporation (FHN) vs. KeyCorp (KEY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FHN took a strategic, near-term earnings hit in its latest quarter to sell roughly $4.5 billion of lower-yielding mortgages and reposition its balance sheet for growth.
- KEY has delivered consistent earnings beats, expanding net interest margin (NIM), and stronger fee-based revenue momentum across investment banking, payments, and wealth.
- KEY is the much larger franchise, with about $189 billion in assets versus FHN's roughly $84 billion, giving it a more diversified, national-scale business mix.
- Both names have softened in price over the past month, reflecting cautious sentiment across the regional banking group rather than company-specific deterioration.
- The comparison centers on a trade-off: FHN's balance-sheet reset and self-help story versus KEY's steadier, higher-quality earnings trajectory.
Introduction
Regional bank stocks sit at the intersection of interest-rate expectations, credit quality, and economic momentum, making direct comparisons valuable for investors evaluating sector exposure. FHN and KEY are two prominent U.S. banking franchises with meaningfully different footprints, scale, and near-term catalysts. First Horizon Corporation operates across the southern United States, while KeyCorp serves a broader national base from its Cleveland headquarters. This stock comparison examines recent performance, business positioning, and momentum to help traders and long-term investors assess which institution offers the more compelling risk-reward profile in the current environment.
FHN Overview and Recent Performance
First Horizon Corporation (FHN), headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee, is a regional financial services company with roughly $84 billion in assets and a banking footprint concentrated across 12 southern U.S. states. The franchise spans commercial, consumer, private banking, wealth and trust, capital markets, fixed income, and mortgage banking.
Recent market activity has centered on a deliberate balance-sheet reset. In its latest quarter, FHN reported a net loss available to common shareholders driven primarily by a $347 million after-tax charge tied to reclassifying about $4.5 billion of lower-yielding consumer mortgages for sale. Excluding notable items, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.53 came in roughly in line with consensus. Management framed the move as earnings-accretive going forward, expecting the sale to lift future EPS and free capital for loan growth, while boosting the loan-to-deposit position and net interest margin outlook. The shares have pulled back in recent weeks, with a soft one-month and three-month relative performance as investors weighed a headline loss against the longer-term self-help story.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp (KEY), based in Cleveland, Ohio, is one of the nation's largest bank-based financial services companies, with approximately $189 billion in assets, roughly $148 billion in deposits, and around $70 billion in assets under management (AUM) across a 940-branch network. Its model blends consumer, commercial, and institutional banking with investment banking, payments, and wealth management.
Recent quarters have shown consistent execution. KEY has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, supported by net interest income (NII) growth, an expanding net interest margin, and rising non-interest income from fee-based businesses. Return on tangible common equity (ROTCE, a profitability measure excluding intangible assets) improved to about 13%, with management targeting 15%-plus by late 2027. The company also raised full-year guidance, expanded share repurchases, and completed the acquisition of UK advisory firm Clearwater, deepening its middle-market M&A (mergers and acquisitions) capabilities. Despite this momentum, the stock has lagged the broader market over the past year and slipped in recent weeks alongside its regional-bank peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two institutions present contrasting market positioning. KEY operates at roughly twice the scale of FHN, with a more diversified, capital-light, fee-heavy model spanning investment banking, payments, and wealth management alongside traditional lending. FHN, by contrast, is a more regionally concentrated franchise that derives a larger share of revenue from net interest income, making it more sensitive to interest-rate moves and regional economic conditions.
In terms of recent momentum, KEY has posted steadier fundamentals, including consistent earnings beats, NIM expansion, and robust fee growth. FHN's narrative is more episodic: a near-term earnings reset engineered to improve future returns. Risk profiles also differ. FHN's repositioning involves execution risk around redeploying sale proceeds into higher-yielding loans, while KEY carries a larger loan book and exposure to a broader set of commercial and capital-markets cycles. On credit quality, both have maintained relatively contained net charge-offs, though KEY's absolute non-performing asset metrics reflect its larger, more diverse portfolio. Overall, KEY offers stability and a clear path to higher returns, while FHN offers a potentially sharper re-rating if its balance-sheet strategy executes as planned.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor KEY in the current environment. KEY exhibits more consistent trend characteristics: four consecutive earnings beats, improving net interest margin, growing fee-based revenue, and a well-defined profitability target. Its steadier, higher-quality earnings trajectory and diversified business mix generally translate into more reliable signal stability for systematic models. FHN's balance-sheet reset is a credible catalyst, but its near-term earnings volatility and execution dependence introduce greater uncertainty. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive call, and relative positioning could shift as both stocks' fundamentals evolve over coming quarters.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FHN is a StrongBuy and KEY is a Hold.
FHN in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 13, 2026
FHN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 38 cases where FHN's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FHN's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 30 of 50 cases where FHN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FHN just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where FHN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +0.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FHN advanced for three days, in 179 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FHN as a result. In 40 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
The 50-day moving average for FHN moved below the 200-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FHN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for FHN entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 39 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.287) is normal, around the industry mean (1.241). P/E Ratio (10.981) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.089). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.448) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. FHN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
KEY in -1.49% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on October 14, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where KEY declined for three days, in 201 of 287 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for KEY moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
KEY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for KEY entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KEY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 44 of 59 cases where KEY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KEY as a result. In 58 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KEY just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where KEY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +1.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KEY advanced for three days, in 177 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.284) is normal, around the industry mean (1.241). P/E Ratio (12.029) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.089). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.332) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.996) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. KEY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KEY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
FHN | KEY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 84 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 39 Fair valued | 52 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 76 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | 7 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FHN's Valuation (39) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (52) in the Major Banks industry. This means that FHN’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
FHN's Profit vs Risk Rating (55) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (76) in the Major Banks industry. This means that FHN’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's SMR Rating (7) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as FHN (9) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to FHN’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as FHN (58) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to FHN’s over the last 12 months.
FHN's P/E Growth Rating (62) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (87) in the Major Banks industry. This means that FHN’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| FHN | KEY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 56% | 5 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 53% | 7 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FHN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while KEY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- FHN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KEY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FHN’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KEY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FHN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KEY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FHN (@Regional Banks) experienced а +1.27% price change this week, while KEY (@Regional Banks) price change was +4.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +0.87%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.29%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.77%.
Reported Earning Dates
FHN is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
KEY is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+0.87% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with TFC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then TFC could also see price increases.