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FHN vs KEY
First Horizon (FHN) vs KeyCorp (KEY) Earnings Preview: Q1 Results Due April 15-16
Key Takeaways
- First Horizon (FHN) reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 15, with analysts expecting EPS of $0.49 and revenue of $869 million.
- KeyCorp (KEY) follows on April 16, forecasted at $0.41 EPS and $1.93 billion in revenue, signaling 24% EPS growth year-over-year.
- Both regional banks showed strength in Q4 2025: FHN beat with $0.52 EPS and 3.51% NIM (net interest margin, the difference between interest income and expense); KEY posted $0.41 adjusted EPS and $2.0 billion revenue.
- FHN edges on NIM efficiency at ~3.5%, while KEY leads in scale with larger revenue base and share repurchase plans.
- Loan growth and deposit stability key for both amid regional banking focus on Southeast and Midwest markets.
- Tickeron AI sees balanced positioning, with focus on NII (net interest income, core earnings from lending) trends.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Regional banks like First Horizon (FHN) and KeyCorp (KEY) operate in competitive U.S. markets, serving commercial, consumer, and wealth clients primarily in the Southeast and Midwest/Northeast. Earnings reports offer insights into NII resilience, loan demand, deposit costs, and credit quality amid interest rate dynamics. FHN, headquartered in Memphis, emphasizes specialty lending and mortgage; KEY, based in Cleveland, leverages broader commercial banking. Comparing their Q1 2026 previews highlights operational efficiencies, growth potential, and risks like NCOs (net charge-offs, loan losses after recoveries), making them evergreen benchmarks for regional bank investors.
First Horizon Focus
First Horizon (FHN) will release Q1 2026 results on April 15 before market open, followed by a 9:30 AM ET conference call. Analysts project EPS of $0.49-$0.50 (up from $0.42 a year ago) and revenue around $870 million, reflecting modest growth. Key watches include NIM stability near 3.5%, building on Q4 2025's 3.51% with $676 million NII and 2% sequential loan growth to ~$40 billion. Deposits rose $2 billion in Q4, with interest-bearing costs falling to 2.53%. ROTCE (return on tangible common equity, profitability on tangible capital) hit 15% in late 2025. Provision expense and NCOs (19 bps in Q4) remain focal amid stable asset quality. Management guided 3-7% 2026 revenue growth, prioritizing expense control.
KeyCorp Context
KeyCorp (KEY) reports Q1 2026 on April 16, with a 10:00 AM ET call. Consensus calls for $0.41 EPS (24% YoY increase from $0.33) and $1.93 billion revenue (up ~9%). Q4 2025 delivered adjusted $0.41 EPS (beating $0.39 estimate), $2.0 billion revenue (12% adjusted YoY growth), and NIM of 2.8%. Full-year 2025 revenue hit record $7.5 billion (16% adjusted growth). CET1 (common equity tier 1, core capital ratio) stood at 10.3%, supporting $1.2 billion+ 2026 repurchases. Loans and deposits held steady; asset quality improved with declining delinquencies. 2026 outlook: 7% revenue growth, 8-10% NII rise, expenses at half that pace.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Both banks enter Q1 with momentum from Q4 beats. FHN (~$12B market cap, ~$80B assets) boasts superior NIM (3.5% vs. KEY's 2.8%), aiding ROE ~11%, but smaller scale limits diversification. KEY (~$20B market cap, ~$190B assets) drives volume with stronger fee income and buybacks, targeting ROTCE expansion. Growth drivers: FHN via mortgage/warehouse lending; KEY through commercial expansion. Risks include rate sensitivity (both asset-sensitive) and NCOs, stable at low teens bps. Sentiment favors FHN for efficiency, KEY for capital return; Q1 beats could lift shares 3-5% historically.
AI Screener
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI slightly favors First Horizon (FHN) with 55% probability for near-term outperformance, citing superior NIM stability and ROTCE trajectory versus KEY's scale advantages. Watch Q1 NII and guidance for confirmation; both offer value in regional banking recovery.
Disclaimer
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To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FHN is a Buy and KEY is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FHN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileKEY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FHN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FHN’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KEY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FHN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
- KEY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FHN (@Regional Banks) experienced а +0.32% price change this week, while KEY (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.83% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
FHN is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
KEY is expected to report earnings on Jul 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.31% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| FHN | KEY | FHN / KEY | |
| Capitalization | 11.8B | 24.8B | 48% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 5.326 | 12.812 | 42% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.47 | 14.01 | 89% |
| Revenue | 3.37B | 7.47B | 45% |
| Total Cash | 889M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 3.29B | 17B | 19% |
FHN | KEY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 14 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 38 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 77 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 14 | 10 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 20 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 84 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (38) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as FHN (43) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to FHN’s over the last 12 months.
FHN's Profit vs Risk Rating (62) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (77) in the Major Banks industry. This means that FHN’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's SMR Rating (10) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as FHN (14) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to FHN’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's Price Growth Rating (20) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as FHN (47) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to FHN’s over the last 12 months.
FHN's P/E Growth Rating (62) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (84) in the Major Banks industry. This means that FHN’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| FHN | KEY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 57% | 12 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 6 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 60% |
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FHN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FHN has been closely correlated with HWC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FHN jumps, then HWC could also see price increases.
KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with CFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then CFG could also see price increases.