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FHN vs KEY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? First Horizon Corporation (FHN) vs. KeyCorp (KEY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Two large regional banks, two distinct models: FHN is a Memphis-based super-regional with an asset-sensitive balance sheet, while KEY is a Cleveland-based institution with a larger, more fee-diversified franchise.
- Profitability edge for FHN: FHN's adjusted return on tangible common equity (ROTCE, a measure of profitability on shareholder capital) has held above 15% for multiple consecutive quarters, versus KEY's stated goal of reaching 15%+ by year-end 2027.
- Scale and growth lean toward KEY: KEY reports roughly $189 billion in assets and is growing commercial loans, while FHN operates a smaller, roughly $64 billion loan portfolio.
- Margin dynamics differ: FHN's net interest margin (NIM, the spread between interest earned and interest paid) sits above 3.5%, while KEY's is below 3% but expanding.
- Both are returning capital: Each company is repurchasing shares aggressively, signaling management confidence in current valuations.
- Sentiment is mixed on both: Analyst ratings cluster around Hold for each, with price-target revisions reflecting improving regional-bank fundamentals.
Introduction
Investors evaluating regional banks frequently weigh profitability against growth potential, and the comparison between FHN (First Horizon Corporation) and KEY (KeyCorp) captures that tension well. Both companies are prominent U.S. regional lenders navigating a shifting interest-rate environment, but they differ meaningfully in size, business mix, and margin profile. This stock comparison examines recent market positioning, relative performance, and the key drivers shaping sentiment, making it relevant for traders monitoring momentum as well as longer-horizon investors assessing fundamental quality and capital-return policies.
FHN Overview and Recent Performance
First Horizon Corporation is a Memphis, Tennessee-based super-regional bank serving customers across the Southeast and beyond, with a diversified model spanning commercial banking, fixed income, mortgage, and wealth management. In recent quarters, FHN has delivered steady earnings growth, reporting second-quarter net income available to common shareholders of $260 million, up 12% year over year, following a first quarter that rose 21% year over year. Management has emphasized disciplined execution, citing roughly 3% year-over-year loan growth and an adjusted ROTCE that has now exceeded 15% for four consecutive quarters.
Recent market activity has been more uneven. The stock has rallied modestly on a trailing-year basis but pulled back following earnings, as investors weighed regional-bank risk sentiment against solid fundamentals. The company's net interest margin has held above 3.5%, supported by asset-liability management, and it repurchased $233 million of shares in the most recent quarter. Analysts have lifted price targets into the mid-to-high $20s, though ratings remain a mix of Hold and Buy, reflecting balanced views on valuation and execution.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp is a Cleveland, Ohio-based regional bank with a full-service, fee-heavy model spanning consumer, commercial, and institutional banking, plus payments, wealth management, and investment banking. With roughly $189 billion in assets, it is materially larger than First Horizon and carries a broader, more diversified revenue base. KEY has reported accelerating earnings, including a first quarter in which earnings per share rose 33% year over year on double-digit revenue growth, followed by a strong second quarter.
Recent performance reflects a balance-sheet repositioning effort that has expanded the net interest margin toward 3% and supported commercial loan growth. The company's priority fee-based businesses grew roughly 12% year over year, aided by its investment banking franchise and the completion of the Clearwater UK advisory acquisition. Capital returns have been notable: management repurchased nearly $400 million of stock in the first quarter, raised its full-year repurchase plan to $1.3 billion, and received board authorization for up to $3 billion in buybacks. Analyst sentiment remains centered on Hold, with several firms nudging price targets higher in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is scale versus efficiency. KEY brings a larger balance sheet, a broader fee-based franchise, and a national footprint, which supports revenue diversification and reduces reliance on any single line of business. FHN, by comparison, operates a smaller but more margin-rich franchise, with a net interest margin above 3.5% that reflects its more asset-sensitive positioning and disciplined deposit repricing.
Growth drivers also diverge. KEY is leaning into commercial lending, investment banking, and wealth management, with elevated M&A (mergers and acquisitions) pipelines and significant technology investment. FHN is focused on relationship-based lending, fee-income expansion through wealth and treasury management, and a counter-cyclical fixed-income business. On risk, both maintain strong capital cushions, though FHN's common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio of roughly 10.5% trails KEY's approximately 11.4% level. Market sentiment on both names is constructive but cautious, with Hold ratings predominating and recent target increases reflecting easing recession concerns across regional banks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely give a slight edge to KEY in the current environment. The stock shows stronger momentum signals, accelerating earnings growth, expanding net interest margin, and a more diversified fee-based revenue stream that may offer greater stability across rate cycles. Its larger capital-return program and improving loan growth also support relative positioning. That said, FHN presents a compelling efficiency story, with superior ROTCE and a higher net interest margin. The AI's preference is probabilistic rather than definitive, contingent on continued margin expansion for KEY and stable credit trends for both lenders.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FHN is a Hold and KEY is a Hold.
FHN's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for FHN entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 100 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 56 of the 100 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 56%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FHN as a result. In 40 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FHN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FHN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 34 of 50 cases where FHN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FHN just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where FHN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +1.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FHN advanced for three days, in 180 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
FHN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 34 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.295) is normal, around the industry mean (1.323). P/E Ratio (11.149) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.509). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.029) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.448) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. FHN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
KEY in -1.49% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on October 14, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where KEY declined for three days, in 201 of 287 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 16, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KEY as a result. In 57 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for KEY entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KEY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 44 of 59 cases where KEY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KEY just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where KEY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +0.65% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KEY advanced for three days, in 179 of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
KEY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 25 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.258) is normal, around the industry mean (1.323). P/E Ratio (11.930) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.509). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.332) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.040) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.996) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 37 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. KEY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KEY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
FHN | KEY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 63 | 73 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 34 Fair valued | 25 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 81 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | 7 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 37 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (25) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as FHN (34) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to FHN’s over the last 12 months.
FHN's Profit vs Risk Rating (56) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (81) in the Major Banks industry. This means that FHN’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
KEY's SMR Rating (7) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as FHN (9) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to FHN’s over the last 12 months.
FHN's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (60) in the Major Banks industry. This means that FHN’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
FHN's P/E Growth Rating (69) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (88) in the Major Banks industry. This means that FHN’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| FHN | KEY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 56% | 12 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FHN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while KEY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FHN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FHN’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KEY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FHN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- KEY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
FHN (@Regional Banks) experienced а -1.93% price change this week, while KEY (@Regional Banks) price change was -0.80% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +0.50%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.69%.
Reported Earning Dates
FHN is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
KEY is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+0.50% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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FHN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FHN has been closely correlated with HWC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FHN jumps, then HWC could also see price increases.
KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with CFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then CFG could also see price increases.