Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) develops electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for commercial air-taxi service. After a punishing year in which the shares lost roughly two-thirds of their value, the stock's average analyst price target sits near $10 — roughly double the recent price. Whether the stock can get there depends less on near-term earnings than on certification milestones, cash burn, and whether commercial service actually begins.
The $10 central target reflects eight current analyst price targets collected from identifiable firms: H.C. Wainwright (Buy, $18, September 2026), Needham (Buy, $15, August 2026), Canaccord Genuity (Hold, $12, September 2026), Morgan Stanley (Equal Weight, $10, October 2026), Goldman Sachs (Sell, $7, October 2026), J.P. Morgan (Underweight, $7, February 2026), Deutsche Bank (Sell, $6, February 2026), and Barclays (Underweight, $4, October 2026). The arithmetic mean is about $9.90, which rounds to the $10 figure used here.
The $4-to-$18 range is one of the widest on the Street and mirrors a genuine split. Bulls such as H.C. Wainwright emphasize the defense opportunity and the acquisition of Resonant Sciences, while cautious firms such as Barclays and Goldman Sachs question valuation, manufacturing scale, and execution. Notably, Morgan Stanley's Kristine Liwag trimmed her target from $13 to $10 in mid-October, and Barclays downgraded the stock to Underweight while cutting its target from $6 to $4. A mean price target is a scenario-based estimate, not a guarantee, especially for a pre-profit company.
Joby shares recently traded near $5.01, down roughly 68% over the trailing year and not far above their 52-week low near $4.43. Reaching $10 would require roughly a 100% gain, a very large move that would likely depend on a fundamental re-rating rather than ordinary trading momentum. Because Joby generates only modest revenue and remains deeply unprofitable, the path to the target runs through certification, first commercial flights, and evidence that the business can scale — not through near-term EPS (earnings per share) growth.
Joby holds roughly $2.3 billion in cash, which provides runway for certification and early operations. The company has raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to $115 million to $125 million, largely on contributions from the Blade air-mobility business it acquired in 2025, and its defense segment is expanding after the Resonant Sciences acquisition. Planned commercial launches — in Dubai and later in the U.S. — and progress on FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) type certification remain the key catalysts bulls point to.
Cash burn is the central concern: Joby consumed roughly $365 million in the first half of 2026 and guided to another $385 million to $415 million in the second half, while reporting a net loss of about $245 million on only about $39 million of revenue in the second quarter. An October 2026 jury verdict awarding roughly $116.9 million in a trade-secrets case added another headwind. Certification delays, manufacturing execution, competition, and the risk that valuation compresses further all sit between the current price and a $10 target.
The 52-week range runs from about $4.43 to $17.51, and the stock is trading in the lower portion of that range after a prolonged decline. The $4.40-to-$5 area represents the nearest support zone, while a recovery toward $10 would first need to clear the low-$6 and low-$7 levels that acted as prior turning points. The round-number $10 level itself is both the analyst-derived objective and a potential psychological resistance zone.
Analyst price targets typically reflect a roughly 12-month outlook, though the stated horizons can vary by firm. Investors should watch Joby's next earnings report (scheduled for early November 2026), FAA certification updates, the timing of first commercial flights, cash-burn and balance-sheet trends, any further analyst revisions, and developments in the trade-secrets litigation. Defense bookings and Blade revenue growth also bear directly on whether the market re-rates the shares.
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Can Joby Aviation stock reach $10? The figure represents the average of eight current analyst targets spanning $4 to $18, and reaching it from near $5.01 would require roughly a doubling — a very large move. The bull case rests on a strong cash position, a growing defense business, and approaching commercial launches, while the bear case centers on steep cash burn, certification risk, a recent adverse verdict, and a valuation that cautious analysts still see as rich. With Wall Street itself divided by a factor of more than four to one, the outcome hinges on execution milestones that have yet to occur. Investors should monitor certification and first-flight news alongside cash consumption rather than treat the $10 figure as a foregone conclusion.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JOBY has been loosely correlated with SRTA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 36% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if JOBY jumps, then SRTA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JOBY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOBY | 100% | -3.54% | ||
| SRTA - JOBY | 36% Loosely correlated | -6.53% | ||
| CAAP - JOBY | 25% Poorly correlated | -2.98% | ||
| ASR - JOBY | 25% Poorly correlated | -0.82% | ||
| OMAB - JOBY | 25% Poorly correlated | +0.39% | ||
| UP - JOBY | 19% Poorly correlated | N/A | ||
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| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JOBY | 1D Price Change % |
|---|---|---|
| JOBY | 100% | -3.54% |
| Air Freight/Couriers industry (8 stocks) | 26% Poorly correlated | -1.45% |