The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) has been one of the most volatile ways to gain exposure to the global competition over critical minerals. After climbing more than 140% from its April 2025 low and peaking near $111 earlier in 2026, the fund has retreated to the mid-$70s. That pullback leaves investors asking a straightforward question: can REMX climb back to the $100 mark?
The $100 level is more than a round number. It sits near the upper half of REMX's recent trading history, and the fund has already demonstrated it can trade above this threshold, having reached a 52-week high of $111.55 earlier in 2026. After falling roughly 32% from that peak, a return to $100 would represent about 32% upside from current prices, making it a meaningful but historically plausible milestone for a thematic ETF known for sharp moves in both directions.
REMX tracks the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index, which holds companies engaged in the production, refining, and recycling of rare earth elements and strategic metals. The fund carries an expense ratio of roughly 0.53% and manages approximately $2.2 billion in assets, with a dividend yield near 1.7%.
Its exposure is concentrated in materials, with lithium accounting for roughly 37% of assets and rare earths about 31%, alongside tungsten, molybdenum, titanium, and diversified holdings. By geography, China represents about 32% of the portfolio, Australia about 23%, and the United States about 18%. Top positions include Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM), United States Antimony (UAMY), and Lithium Americas (LAR), among Chinese and Australian miners.
REMX's 52-week range spans $57.17 to $111.55. After peaking in the spring of 2026, the fund has corrected into the mid-$70s while remaining up roughly 13% year to date. The decline has been driven primarily by softer lithium and rare earth prices, which remain the dominant factor behind the fund's day-to-day performance.
Several forces support a push back toward $100. China's ongoing export restrictions on rare earths and critical minerals have tightened global supply and reinforced Western efforts to diversify sourcing. In the United States, government support for domestic rare earth processing, including investment in companies such as MP Materials (MP), has elevated the strategic importance of the sector.
Demand fundamentals also remain constructive. Lithium carbonate prices have risen sharply over the past year, and robust growth in stationary energy storage and electric-vehicle adoption continues to absorb supply. Rare earths are likewise essential to defense technology, wind turbines, and the magnets used in advanced electronics, keeping the sector's long-term demand story intact.
The obstacles are equally real. Lithium supply is being restored as previously idled capacity ramps back up, and any acceleration of Chinese export policy reversals could quickly ease the supply constraints that have supported prices. REMX is also a concentrated, single-sector fund with historically high volatility and, over longer periods, underwhelming returns. A renewed downturn in commodity prices would likely keep the fund anchored below its prior highs.
Analyst sentiment is mixed. The consensus rating on the ETF's underlying holdings is a Hold, with 14 buy ratings, five hold ratings, and one sell rating. Based on price targets for the stocks the fund owns, one data provider cites an average implied target near $113, within a range of roughly $90 to $133. By contrast, the aggregate target applied to the ETF itself sits much closer to the current price, in the high-$70s. That gap reflects genuine uncertainty about how quickly commodity prices and the underlying miners can recover.
On the downside, the mid-to-low $70s has acted as a recent support zone, with the 52-week low near $57 providing a deeper floor. On the upside, REMX faces resistance near $80, followed by the psychological $90 and $100 levels, before the prior high around $111. A sustained move above $90 would likely be required to put $100 back within reach.
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A return to $100 is realistic but far from assured. REMX has already shown it can trade above that level, and the structural tailwinds from China's export controls, Western supply-chain investment, and resilient demand for lithium and rare earths support the long-term case. However, the fund's heavy dependence on volatile commodity prices, the risk of Chinese policy shifts, and concentrated sector exposure all stand in the way. Investors should watch lithium and rare earth pricing, supply restart announcements, and whether REMX can hold support in the low $70s before mounting a sustained advance toward $100.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, REMX has been closely correlated with PICK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if REMX jumps, then PICK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To REMX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REMX | 100% | -2.57% | ||
| PICK - REMX | 79% Closely correlated | +0.14% | ||
| COPX - REMX | 73% Closely correlated | -0.09% | ||
| XME - REMX | 72% Closely correlated | -0.99% | ||
| URA - REMX | 65% Loosely correlated | -3.27% | ||
| GNR - REMX | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.04% | ||
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