TJX Companies (TJX) Shares Decline -12% Over 30 Days After Mixed Results
Key Takeaways
- TJX shares have fallen roughly 12% over the past 30 days, sliding from about $144.50 to around $126.55 and touching 52-week lows in early September.
- The decline accelerated after fiscal second-quarter 2027 results (reported August 19) revealed that comparable sales at Marmaxx—the TJ Maxx and Marshalls division—rose only 1%.
- Management raised its full-year earnings outlook but guided third-quarter comparable sales growth to just 2% to 3%, leaving the flagship division under scrutiny.
- Rising fuel and wage costs, softer low-income consumer spending, and pressure on the broader consumer-discretionary sector compounded the selloff.
- Over the past quarter, TJX is down roughly 23% from its mid-June levels near $164.
Understanding TJX Companies and Its Market Position
The TJX Companies is the world's largest off-price apparel and home fashions retailer. Its banners include TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, Homesense, Sierra, Winners, and TK Maxx, operating across thousands of stores in the United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia. The company's model centers on opportunistically buying branded and designer merchandise and reselling it at prices typically 20% to 60% below department and specialty stores.
TJX competes on a "treasure hunt" shopping experience, rapid inventory turnover, and scale-based buying power. Its diversified portfolio across geographies and categories—apparel, home goods, and accessories—has historically supported consistent growth and market-share gains. Investors follow the stock for its resilient off-price model, strong cash generation, and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
TJX Stock Performance Over the Last 30 Days and the Quarter
Over the last 30 days, TJX declined approximately 12%, falling from a closing price near $144.50 to about $126.55. The stock dropped around 4% immediately following its August 19 earnings report and continued to slide through September, reaching a low near $122.84 before a modest rebound. The shares spent much of September near 52-week lows.
The picture is steeper over the past quarter. After climbing to a peak near $168 in mid-June, TJX reversed sharply, losing roughly 23% to current levels. The multi-month downtrend reflects a combination of company-specific concerns about Marmaxx and a broader rotation away from consumer-discretionary names. From what I see, this kind of move often signals deeper questions about near-term momentum.
Earnings Results and the Recent Stock Decline
The primary catalyst was the August 19 release of fiscal second-quarter 2027 results. TJX reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.22, above consensus estimates, with net sales up 5% to $15.18 billion and consolidated comparable sales up 4%. However, comparable sales at Marmaxx rose only 1%, below management's expectations and down from 3% a year earlier. Executives described the shortfall as self-inflicted, tied to merchandise mix and getting the right goods into the right stores at the right time.
Guidance also weighed on sentiment. The company projected third-quarter comparable sales growth of 2% to 3% and reiterated full-year comparable growth of 3% to 4%. Although management raised its full-year adjusted earnings outlook to $5.15 to $5.20 per share, that range remained below the roughly $5.23 average analyst estimate. Higher store wage and payroll costs, plus an expected third-quarter gross-margin decline driven by higher fuel expenses, added to the pressure.
Analyst responses were mixed. J.P. Morgan maintained a Buy rating with a $171 price target, and Morgan Stanley reiterated a positive view, while Citi downgraded the stock to Hold. The divergence between TJX's 4% consolidated comparable growth and rival Ross Stores (ROST) 10% comparable gain also raised questions about potential market-share shifts. Broader macro concerns—including rising fuel prices and signs that lower-income consumers are pulling back on discretionary apparel spending—amplified the move. I’m watching this closely as the data evolves.
Drivers Behind the Quarterly Performance Drop
Over the past three months, TJX moved from strength into a pronounced downtrend. The stock rallied through the spring and early summer, peaking near $168 in mid-June, before reversing as investors grew more cautious about consumer spending and off-price growth.
The August earnings report crystallized those concerns. Marmaxx, which generates the bulk of TJX's sales, delivered only 1% comparable growth even as HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International each grew in the 6% to 7% range. That imbalance—strong international and home performance offsetting a nearly flat flagship U.S. division—became the central narrative. A broader pullback in retail and consumer-discretionary equities, driven by elevated fuel costs, persistent inflation pressures, and fears of softer low-income demand, reinforced the selloff into September.
Factors to Watch for TJX Going Forward
Several factors are likely to shape TJX's path in the months ahead. Investors will watch whether Marmaxx comparable sales recover toward management's holiday-season expectations and whether the company can sustain momentum at HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. Upcoming quarterly results and any revisions to guidance will be closely scrutinized.
Costs remain a key swing factor, including fuel and freight expenses and store wage inflation, which affect gross margin and SG&A leverage. Currency movements, which trimmed reported sales growth by one percentage point in the latest quarter, also bear monitoring. On the strategic front, TJX's raised long-term store target of 7,500 locations and its planned acceleration of store openings beginning in fiscal 2028 are longer-term growth signals. Finally, broader consumer spending trends, macroeconomic conditions, and competition from peers such as Ross Stores (ROST) and Burlington Stores (BURL) will continue to influence sentiment. One thing that stands out is how these macro elements interact with company execution.
Exploring AI Tools for Stock Analysis
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TJX's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for TJX moved out of oversold territory on September 17, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 17 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 13 of the 17 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TJX as a result. In 40 of 72 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TJX just turned positive on September 18, 2026. Looking at past instances where TJX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Following a +3.28% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TJX advanced for three days, in 196 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TJX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 35%.
TJX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TJX entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TJX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TJX's P/B Ratio (13.459) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.366). P/E Ratio (24.120) is within average values for comparable stocks, (154.317). TJX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.543) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. TJX's P/S Ratio (2.210) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.652).
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General Information
a chain of retail apparels and home fashions stores
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail