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Indra Bhattacharjee's Avatar
published in Blogs
May 20, 2019

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG, $719.61) stands out as top performer in Pershing’s fund

Pershing Square Holdings, the hedge fund led by the billionaire Bill Ackman, delivered a strong performance in the first quarter of 2019. Its full net asset value per share rose 36.9% during the said quarter and surged 38.4% year-to-date.

Key holdings in the fund’s portfolio include Chipotle Mexican Grill accounting for 9.8% of the fund, Restaurant Brands International (QSR) accounting for 5.3%, and Starbucks (SBUX) making up 3.2% of the fund.

Chipotle Mexican Grill rose above the res,  whose store sales grew by 10% in the said quarter. Its digital sales doubled y-o-y to almost 16% of overall sales coupled by a strong delivery strategy that has further increased sales and improved margins.

The hedge fund thinks that Chipotle is on a path to transformation that will expand its footprint and astounding growth in sales and profits in the future.

Restaurant Brands was the second best performer of the fund whose unit count expanded by more than 5% and EBITDA grew by 6%.

On the other hand, Starbucks grew 7% in Q1 opening another 30,000 stores globally. The fund believes the company can still have a better future in China where currently it is under-penetrated.

Related Ticker: CMG

CMG in -1.81% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on April 15, 2024

Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where CMG declined for three days, in of 265 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for CMG moved out of overbought territory on April 12, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 49 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 70 cases where CMG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CMG turned negative on April 02, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

CMG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 11, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 05, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CMG as a result. In of 70 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMG advanced for three days, in of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 349 cases where CMG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CMG's P/B Ratio (26.316) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.114). P/E Ratio (66.358) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.945). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.564) is also within normal values, averaging (1.994). CMG has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.035). P/S Ratio (8.258) is also within normal values, averaging (3.271).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD), Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:SBUX), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG), Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM), Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), Domino's Pizza (NYSE:DPZ), Yum China Holdings (NYSE:YUMC), Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK), Noodles & Company (NASDAQ:NDLS).

Industry description

The industry includes companies that operate full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafeterias and snack bars. McDonald`s Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, YUM! Brands, Inc. and Restaurant Brands International Inc. are some of the largest U.S. restaurant-owning companies in terms of market capitalization. While restaurant spending could be viewed as discretionary for consumers, some companies in the business have been able to weather economic cycles by establishing strong loyalty among customers over the years. Many of them also have a strong global presence as well.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Restaurants Industry is 7.17B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 6.73K to 191.38B. MCD holds the highest valuation in this group at 191.38B. The lowest valued company is AMHG at 6.73K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Restaurants Industry was -4%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 3%. ODDAF experienced the highest price growth at 18%, while WBBAD experienced the biggest fall at -91%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Restaurants Industry was -6%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -45% and the average quarterly volume growth was -0%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 46
P/E Growth Rating: 65
Price Growth Rating: 81
SMR Rating: 65
Profit Risk Rating: 83
Seasonality Score: 5 (-100 ... +100)
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published General Information

General Information

an operator of fast-casual, fresh Mexican food restaurants

Industry Restaurants

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Restaurants
Address
610 Newport Center Drive
Phone
+1 949 524-4000
Employees
116068
Web
https://www.chipotle.com
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